Europe is staring down the barrel of a stark new harsh truth and reality where the US is no longer a given in the security umbrella of the continent, and all the past ignorance and almost total reliance on Washington for its security needs will now need a total overhaul.
Europe and NATO without the US will inevitably spell doom for both, as although they have more than a million troops and modern weaponry at its disposal from the 31 other countries in the alliance, they still lack the final piece of the capacity needed to win a conflict and to deal a decisive blow, or to even have a capable deterrent effect in the first place.
With Ukraine now accepting the peace proposal from the US and that the ball is now in the court of Moscow, Europe left even more vulnerable and less influential in the stakes involved, especially the future.
During the Cold War, US troops were on the continent as a deterrent to Soviet ambitions, but now, the presence there further fuelled complacency on the parts of Europe,encapsulated in the potential move to reassign American troops from Germany to Hungary.
Europe is now seen from the lens of Washington and Trump as increasingly the enemy and disruptor from within, where decades of military support and funding have only been met with more economic and trade imbalances that have further squeezed Washington.
For Europe, long buoyed by Washington’s easy and entrenched support in a bipartisan basis before Trump came along, it has now increasingly termed Washington as the enemy rather than the trusted ally, from the increasingly fragile security umbrella to the ease of Trump using his cards to expand influence and territories and using the tariff tool to correct pact imbalances, including goals on Greenland and Canada. Europe sees that if Trump can do that to established allies including Canada, then Europe minus the strategic foresight and move by UK’s Starmer, will be in the line of fire as well.
Some argue that as soon as Europe realises that it can no longer trust and rely on Washington, it will be compelled to fix its own security which will create an even stronger, not weaker Europe.
This does not reflect the past and future reality of the continent’s security and economic credentials.
Poland Prime Minister Donald Tusk argued that Europe as a whole is truly capable of winning any military, financial, or economic confrontation with Russia. Far from it, Europe is left as a sitting duck without the US.
Washington has been central to European security WWII, helped to create NATO and deployed hundreds of thousands of soldiers to Europe to challenge Soviet influence. As of July 2024, the US had about 65,000 active-duty soldiers permanently stationed across Europe, along with extensive weaponry, defence systems and other assets vital to NATO, according to the US government’s Defense Manpower Data Center.
Most of those US troops are in Germany (35,000), Italy (12,000) and the UK (10,000), and with some 10,000 soldiers on rotational deployment in Poland which is a key part of NATO’s eastern flank with Russia. While some have argued that the UK, France, Italy and Spain all possess modern aircraft carriers and amphibious ships capable of launching jets as compared to Russia’s single antiquated aircraft carrier, they lack the capacity, readiness and volumes of direct deterrence and in sustaining a protracted war that Russia is now accustomed to, even with the various economic pressure in place.
NATO’s European allies have some 7,000 aircraft, 6,800 tanks, 2,170 military ships and six aircraft carriers, according to the Global Firepower defence index. However, they lack the real life firepower capacity and the precedence of war fighting experience unlike what the Americans and Russians have had.
Russia enjoys higher volume and practical experience and an upper hand advantage both in conventional and nuclear capacities. France and Britain both have a combined nuclear warheads of around 500, while the US has around 5000, and Russia has the highest number at approximately 6000.
Currently, Russia has at least 1.32 million active-duty soldiers, hundreds of thousands of whom are fighting in Ukraine.
Russia also operates dozens of overseas military facilities, most located in former Soviet states.
The capability and power gap still persists between the whole of Europe and Washington’s armoury that is very much in need. The new wave of arms race and armament has changed the orientation of the region, but Europe still needs Washington support. Zelensky has claimed that around 40% of his country’s battlefield needs are being met through domestic production, often in joint ventures with Western defence firms, but remains vulnerable without American support especially in nuclear and high technology missiles.
Last year, only 18 NATO allies just spent the target of 2% of GDP in defence. Currently, the EU’s member states spend some €325bn ($340bn) a year on defence, which comes to about 1.8% of the bloc’s GDP. That is still, three years into the war in Ukraine, less than the 2% target that NATO set its members in 2014 after Russia annexed Crimea and occupied the eastern Donbas region. Even the 3.5% figure leaves a gap of 1.7% of GDP to be filled.
What does Europe really lack? It is the basic military technology and capability that make armed forces credible, capable and most importantly, lethal. Europe has outdated and outnumbered ships and missiles. It has ships without the proper missiles, planes without the needed technological capacity including jamming capabilities, and even troops without adequate ammunition.
The disparity of Western and Eastern European military capabilities and intra-European power gap are glaring. Lacking the combined holistic military spectrum, including intelligence, space security and satellite capabilities, cyber and digital warfare, missiles, and nuclear first and second strike capacities, Europe cannot afford to defend itself without America.
The nature of European arsenals cannot match with the overall nuclear and military umbrella that America provides.
The American nuclear umbrella and nuclear forces have protected Europe for decades, serving as the ultimate deterrent. But it has for decades been piggybacking on America’s back, banking on the conventional and assured American military and financial support in securing its interests and security needs without the urgent need to bolster these capabilities. The nature of European arsenals cannot match with the overall nuclear and military umbrella that America provides.
The American nuclear umbrella and nuclear forces have protected Europe for decades, serving as the ultimate assurance and guarantee against a Russian invasion. This easy ride on security assurances for Europe made it easier for it to focus deeper on its economic and trade needs, and pivoting to Africa and Asia. However, even this is ineffective, with its Global Gateway strategy and the Indo Pacific push all failing to pull Europe out of its stagnation,even in post Brexit recovery. With Trump now reversing decades of free ride, European security suddenly looks in shambles, even without the Ukraine pretext in the first place.
This new reality jolted Europe into a new scramble for defence reorientation. EU countries are trying to mobilize trillions of euros for additional defense for this purpose.
Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz announced that the government would amend the constitution to exempt defense and security outlays from fiscal limits, paving the way for a massive increase in defence spending and support, pledging to do “whatever it takes” to defend the country, including planning a €500 billion infrastructure fund to invest in priorities such as transportation, energy grids and housing over 10 years.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed raising hundreds of billions more to restore Europe’s defense capacity.
Despite the new historic move by Germany to shake up its defence needs and industry and in taking leadership of Europe’s security since its postwar history, it still lacks the capability to unite and project capable European collective security in the way Washington has done.
As Trump repeatedly pointed out Europe’s own perplexing irony, the EU spent $23 billion on Russian oil and gas in the third year of the war on Ukraine, more than the $19.6 billion in financial aid it offered to the war torn country, resulting in the Kremlin making close to $1 trillion from oil exports since February 2022.
Europe has long accustomed itself to the perceived status quo model of democracy and governance that has seen it being mired in its traditional approach to addressing and perceiving threats. Vance argued that a lack of Trump-style “democracy” in Europe was a bigger security threat to the continent than China or Russia.
This Trump approach to reorient the European and Russian policies and models have invited various perceptions and arguments. Some have seen this move as a strategic model to split Russia from China and to get Europe to take care of itself, paving the way for the US to fully focus on the rivalry with Beijing.
The argument behind this is that while the West remains fairly important in maintaining the rules based order and democracy, Trump sees the more important need for America to sustain and to be strong again, as only the US has the capacity to stand up to any global threats. His aim is to Make America Great Again, and not Make the West Great Again, where a win for the US is more pervasive and important for the entire Western world.
Others have called for Europe to build its own credible nuclear deterrent, with France being called to extend its nuclear protection to Germany and to the rest of Europe. With Germany being the largest and economically most powerful country in Europe, others have called for Berlin to pay the lion’s share for this new nuclear umbrella, where with its low debt burden, Berlin would be able to mobilise money.
This remains a far-fetched ambition. Although capital and resources might be pooled, the end result in a realistic on-the-ground deterrent remains sketchy and inadequate.
Europe’s vulnerability to energy security and reliance on external energy sources remain the main sticking points. It remains hard for Europe to ward off this dependency, let alone defend the shipping lanes and pipelines for its energy imports.
The calls for Europe to enhance its domestic energy production through the woke and liberal approach of renewable energy sources continue to be a bad strategic mistake, where after the initial bandwagon of reducing fossil fuel energy reliance, most European nations switched back to conventional sources. Germany realised that shutting down its nuclear power plants and pushing clumsy and lousy climate policies that have alienated large parts of the population remained a huge mistake for the wrong scramble to join the madness of the green liberal agenda.
While Europe is busy aligning with the green and woke agenda, China and Russia continue to surge ahead with their own relentless strategic pursuits of military advancements without the limitations of green models and policies, powering through their energy, economic and military transformations with common sense utilisations of their strength.
Trump wanted the same common sense approach in regaining America’s long subdues and hidden strength that has been curtailed by the liberal Democrats that has weakened the country’s economic, energy and military potential, further being strangled by both allies and enemies alike in trade and economy and global moral obligations without any returns.
Europe’s spending to support Ukraine is equally underwhelming. Since January 2022 the EU and its member states have spent €113bn in financial, military and humanitarian help, the equivalent of just above 0.2% of their GDP during each of those three years, according to data from the think tank, Kiel Institute.
Europe’s imports of weapons made by the United States have skyrocketed in the past five years, raising serious questions about whether the continent can achieve its vaunted goal of defence autonomy.
New research released on Monday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a leading defence and armaments think tank, shows Europe increased its imports of weapons two-and-a-half times over in the past five years compared with the previous five years.
Most European Union members did not begin boosting their domestic weapons production until last year.
Zelensky went to solicit European support after the Trump standoff, hoping to use the fear of Russia to get the needed European military and funding injection and explain how Ukraine will supposedly serve as the buffer for European security. The new wave of arms race and armament has changed the orientation of the region, but Europe still needs Washington support. Zelensky has claimed that around 40% of his country’s battlefield needs are being met through domestic production, often in joint ventures with Western defence firms, but remains sitting ducks without American support especially in nuclear and high technology missiles.
The question is, how far will Europe go to spend and defend Ukraine if it does not create the deterrent effect against Russia? It is the fear of the domino effect that has propelled Europe to be jolted out of its slumber, where it has for years been taking advantage of Washington in doing the heavy lifting.
If Ukraine does not serve as the buffer and as the frontier in stopping Putin’s intent, Europe will have little incentive to commit as much as Washington did.
The US and Trump still hold the upper card in dealing with both Europe and Russia, and deservingly so, for the peace of the regions and the world.