The dramatic hijacking of the Jaffar Express last week, followed by an attack on a military convoy by Baloch separatists on Sunday, is an indication of the dire security situation in Pakistan. Combine this with the country’s dwindling economy, the army’s constant interference and attempt to keep a grip on power, as well as the inability of Pakistan’s political parties to come together at a time of national crisis, shows the complete breakdown of political consensus in a deeply polarised country.
Pakistan is not wrong in claiming that it is a victim of terrorism. The Global Terrorism Index 2025, ranks Pakistan as the second most terrorism affected country. The report documented a 45 per cent increase in terrorist attacks, up from 748 in 2023 to 1,081 in 2024. Pakistan faces attacks from two fronts: one is insurgents from Balochistan province--Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF)--made up of tribesmen from the province who have upped their game and are now carrying out much more deadly attacks; the other is the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan or the TTP which has kept up a barrage of constant attacks under a leadership that operates from Afghanistan. Besides the TTP, Pakistan also has to deal with strikes by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) a jihadist group, that attacks Shia mosques and institutions as well as security forces.
While Pakistan has accused Afghanistan, India and Iran of stoking terrorism in the country, New Delhi has denied any hand in the Jaffar Express hijack. MEA spokesman Randhir Jaiswal has asked Pakistan to "look inwards" instead of pointing fingers at others. While external help to terror groups is always a factor, the root cause is domestic, which governments forget when they talk of a foreign hand.
Pakistan’s establishment appears to have drawn few lessons from the breakaway of Bangladesh in 1971. The province of Balochistan today is as alienated from the rest of the country, as was the people of Bangladesh in the past. The massive escalation of terror strikes in Balochistan, has not surprised those who follow happenings in the province. Public Policy analyst Rafiullah Kakar is one of them. He said in a podcast that events unfolding in the province in the last two years was an indication of the deteriorating situation. He believes that events have come to "a point of no return in Balochistan’’ without major course correction by the state.
Balochistan is Pakistan’s largest province and rich in mineral wealth—gold, copper, iron, chromite and lithium. Yet it remains one of the least developed provinces in the country. Islamabad has from the beginning exploited the regions natural resources, politically marginalised the state and relied on corrupt Baloch politicians while sidelining those who could make a difference. Islamabad turned its back on Balochistan’ s people while extracting the provinces resources for development in Punjab and Sindh.
Tension between the federal government and Baloch nationalists have erupted time to time in armed action by both sides. But in 2006, when General Musharaff ‘s forces killed the charismatic political leader Akbar Bugti of the powerful Bugti tribe, alienation of Balochistan was complete. The insurgency that began at that time has intensified over the years. Every time the federal government came to an agreement with Baluch nationalists, the promises were inevitably broken. The state relied on military might to quash dissent and control the province.
The BLA and other Baluch groups target the Pakistan army, government installations and Chinese workers. With Gwadar port in Balochistan the centre-piece of the Xi Jinping’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, with an investment of $65 billion in developing the projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. China also has interests in the copper mines, with China and Pakistan collaborating in the Saindak copper-gold project – in Balochistan. Hundreds of Chinese engineers and supervisers oversee the construction sites in the province. Since 2021, 20 Chinese nationals have been killed and 34 injured in the province according to Pakistan’s National Counter Terrorism Authority. But the account taken from 2016 is as high as 60 Chinese nationals killed.
The local people have not welcomed the Chinese as they believe that the provinces wealth is extracted to benefit outsiders, be it Pakistani’s living outside the province or the Chinese.
The BLA have been improving their tactics and operations in the last few years. It was responsible for the deadliest terrorist attack in Pakistan in 2024, when a suicide bomber killed at least 25 civilians and soldiers at the Quetta railway station. The Jaffar express, used mostly by security forces and their families from Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces, has been a target earlier too but without success. Last November, a suicide bomber detonated himself at the Quetta railway station as the train prepared to leave.
However, this time the hijack of the Jaffar express was successful. The final count was all the 26 hostages taken by the BLA were killed, of them 18 were soldiers. A 30-hour military operation by the army led to the rescue of all 190 passengers. All 30 or 33 BLA attackers were killed.
The record of the security forces in Balochistan is deadly. Collective punishment, forced disappearances, extrajudicial killings have resulted in complete alienation of the people. The disparate groups ranging from those who want independence, to those who are for more autonomy within Pakistan are united in opposing the federal government. Resistance movement by civil rights groups against atrocities by security forces have also led to months of peaceful protests by local people. Women and educated youth as well as the middle class are part of the peaceful but powerful resistance movement. As the federal government keeps repeating the old formula of using force resentment against the authorities as well as sympathy for militants is growing in Balochistan. Educated young people both men and women are signing up to join the BLA and the BLF.
Pakistan’s spy agency, the Inter-Services-Intelligence was the creator and godfather of the Afghan Taliban. Helping and advising the leadership through rough times, Pakistan’s top military officials helped to broker talks between the Taliban and the US, in Doha. When the Taliban came back to power in August 2021, Islamabad’s long cherished ambitions of having a Pakistan-friendly regime in Kabul seemed to have been realized. There was jubilation in official circles. The then PM Imran Khan hailed the Taliban for throwing off the shackles of slavery.
But the Taliban government in Afghanistan gave a boost to the Pakistan Taliban’s ambition of carving out a strict Islamic religious state in Islamabad.
At the insistence of the Taliban, the Imran Khan government began peace negotiations with the TTP. The talks were led by intelligence officers of Pakistan and overseen by Imran Khan’s favourite general, former ISI chief Faiz Hameed. Pakistan released TTP commanders many of them hard core terrorists, fighters and preachers. While the leaders stayed behind in Afghanistan the cadres and commanders were now free to operate inside Pakistan. As many had forseen at that time the ceasefire talks broke down and a rejuvenated TPP continued their deadly attacks on Pakistani soil.
The latest GTI reports says that the TTP is now Pakistan’s primary internal security challenge. It is ranked as the third deadliest global terror group. The TTP was responsible for 558 deaths in 2024, marking a 90 increase from the previous year. Most of its attacks were not against the better armed military, but the ill equipped police force. The tactic was also to undermine local governance. The deadliest incident in 2024 involved a TTP assault on a military outpost, resulting in the deaths of 16 Pakistani soldiers— an attack the group claimed was retaliation for the killing of senior TTP commanders.
Pakistan at the moment is in crisis-mode. Political outreach in Balochistan is the way forward or it could be too late.