The Brooklyn Nets’ odds at a high lottery pick in 2025 improved Sunday afternoon when the Philadelphia 76ers beat the Dallas Mavericks. That gave the Nets sole possession of the fifth best odds in the lottery: a 10.5% shot at the overall No. 1 pick, aka Cooper Flagg, and a 42.1% at top four pick. Even Brooklyn’s win over the Atlanta Hawks Sunday evening didn’t change things. The Nets retain control of the fifth best odds if said control is a little less tight.
That whole scenario, of course, became possible last June 24 when the Nets and Houston Rockets exchanged picks, one of two deals agreed to that night (and reported within 12 minutes of each other by Adrian Wojnarowski and Shams Charania), The other, of course, was the blockbuster with the New York Knicks that sent Mikal Bridges across the East River
The pick exchange has drawn criticism from some fans and pundits. The criticism essentially revolves around the heart of that trade: getting back their firsts in 2025 and 2026, given up in the original James Harden trade back in 2021, in return for later picks they acquired in both the Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving trades two years later. Those picks in 2027 and 2029 are now seen as highly valuable because, the critics say, both Phoenix and Dallas will be tanking by then, making them ideal as trade assets as well as picks for the Rockets who now hold them.
However, a couple of ESPN articles this weekend suggest the exchange of picks might not be as bad as critics allege. Indeed, Brian Windhorst calls the deal “inventive” in a Hoops Collective discussion with Tim Bontemps. He argues getting picks in the next two draft will permit the Nets to stretch the rebuild if they need to do so.
Writes Windhorst:
The Nets made their intentions clear last summer when they made an inventive trade with the Houston Rockets to reacquire control of their 2025 and 2026 first-round picks after they’d used them to acquire James Harden in 2021. Actions over words, the Nets clearly felt by getting both picks that they might need to have a two-year “rebuild” even though they are in position to improve this summer, when they could have more than $60 million in cap space.
Windhorst also quotes a “rival executive” as saying the Nets have additional flexibility in that they can use some of their cap space and those picks in a big trade this summer.
“They’re going to use it in trade because they’re not going to have anyone to pay in this free agent market,” a rival executive said. “They could end up right back in this spot next year.”
Flexibility of course is the Nets’ central mantra in this season of transition. The rival executive seems to be expressing his opinion rather than stating a fact. Sean Marks & Co. aren’t talking up their plans ... assuming they’re formulated.
Bontemps similarly suggested the Rockets trade provided the Nets with something they haven’t had in the entirety of Marks’ nine years as GM, a chance at getting a star in the Draft.
That trade with Houston will enable the Nets to do something they have yet to do since they arrived in Brooklyn ahead of the 2012-13 season: make a draft pick in the lottery. In fact, this year’s pick will be the first time the Nets have a selection inside the top 20 since moving inside the five boroughs.
Moreover, Bontemps quotes another NBA source as saying Brooklyn has already scored big in the rebuild and that win has nothing to do with the Draft.
[W]hile the franchise remains in the nascent stages of its rebuild, league insiders I spoke to this week have praised rookie coach Jordi Fernandez, who has done a terrific job getting a team short on talent to be competitive on a nightly basis. “If you’re the Nets, the thing you’re excited about is Jordi,” an executive said.
And what about the possibility of a rebuild, particularly in Phoenix, which critics of the Nets strategy argue is inevitable? In another ESPN story, Tim MacMahon interviewed Mat Ishbia, the mercurial owner of the Suns who dismisses that possibility. As an associate of Ishbia told MacMahon, “For better or worse, there’s no ‘trust the process’ to Mat Ishbia.”
Ishbia indeed confirmed that sentiment to MacMahon, dissing other teams ... and their fans.
“It’s surprising to me that other people, other fans, they actually like the rebuild process,” Ishbia said, disdain dripping from his voice as the final word of that sentence comes out of his mouth. “Like, ‘Oh, let’s rebuild it.’ Are you crazy?! You think I’m going to go for seven years and try to get there? You enjoy the 2030 draft picks that we have holding? I want to try to see the game today. I want us to win today, and we’re going to try.
“Although let’s say this doesn’t work, guess what? Maybe next year we won’t be as good, but we’re going to try again. The next opportunity we have, we’re going to try to win and compete. And it will work. We will win championships here in Phoenix. Might not be this year, but I promise you we are going to do it. And that’s what we’re focused on.”
Ishbia laid out his plan, saying he’s planning to rebuild around Devin Booker, one of his Big Three. still only 28. As for the 36-year-old Kevin Durant, whose desire to leave Brooklyn in the rear view mirror started all this, it’s basically make me an offer I can’t refuse. Bradley Beal, the third member of the Suns trio, has a no-trade clause and has shown no intention of giving it up before his contract runs out in 2027. “I’m still playing in the NBA, I still have the best job in the world, and I still have my no-trade clause. So I’m smiling every day.” Beal told ESPN.
Of course, owners can be convinced that they need to change course. Ask Joe Tsai for one. But for the moment, Ishbia is on the record saying he’s going full bore for a championship, screw everything, including concerns about the luxury tax bills he’ll have to pay, whether winning or losing.
“I’m not sparing dollars,” Ishbia said. “Fans don’t care what a luxury tax bill is. They care that I care and I’m trying to help us win, and I’m giving the GM and the CEO and the coach and the players all the resources to win. And I think that’s something that a lot of GMs and a lot of basketball people would really relish the opportunity to be part of.”
Should that concern the Rockets? Sure. The Nets? Maybe but less so. After all, it’s not a stretch to say the two June 24 trades were hedges against each other. As every avid reader of this site knows, the Nets now have the most picks over the next seven years (31: 15 firsts and 16 seconds,) the most tradeable first round picks by far (12) and eight total picks in the next two drafts, both of which are considered great. The value of picks two to four years in the future is TBD.
None of this is to say things will work out for Brooklyn. Nets fans know better than anyone that nothing is guaranteed. Suns and Rockets fans will learn that as well. Grading trades where the greatest assets are future draft picks is a tricky business.