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Let’s Talk About The Raptors’ Fourth Quarter Strategy

The Toronto Raptors played a deplorable brand of basketball in their “loss” to the Portland Trail Blazers Sunday night, and it deserves a few minutes to highlight their actions.

With (nearly) every team under 30 wins focused on, well, “not winning games,” jockeying to increase their odds of drafting possible future stars Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper, or Ace Bailey in the 2025 NBA Draft, the 24-win Raptors probably saw an opportunity.

Earlier Sunday, the 76ers beat the Mavericks for their 23rd win. The Sixers suddenly found themselves within one win of being tied with Toronto for sixth in the lottery. Later, as the Raptors led the Blazers heading into the final quarter, Toronto received another gift from 2,500 miles away: the 22-win Nets took a fourth-quarter lead against Atlanta. Everything was going Toronto’s way to possibly gain better draft lottery odds. Soon, the Raptors’ fourth-quarter lead over the Blazers would magically start to vanish.

Well, perhaps it wasn’t so magical. Beyond ongoing injuries to Brandon Ingram and Gradey Dick, Toronto also sat out RJ Barrett (illness), Immanuel Quickly (rest), and rookie Ja’Kobe Walter (hip). Nonetheless, they outplayed the rested Trail Blazers nearly all day. So, after Toronto star Scottie Barnes quickly tallied 2 steals and an assist in the fourth quarter, he was removed for rookie Jamison Battle with 8:41 left.

But that didn’t stop the Raptors, who built their lead further. The Raptors had a 93.1% chance of winning the contest with 5:36 remaining in the game according to ESPN Gamecast. But Gamecast didn’t account for Toronto’s next chess move. Jacob Poeltl was a key factor in the ongoing surge, grabbing two offensive rebounds, a steal, four points, and forcing a jump ball. So Poeltl was removed too, replaced by Orlando Robinson.

Neither Barnes nor Poeltl returned. The Blazers played their normal rotation.

After Poeltl’s departure, the Blazers closed out the game by outscoring the Raptors 16-7 to barely grab a three-point win. The victory helped Portland solidify 12th place in the West, but the loss helped Toronto far more: it kept them in position to improve those aforementioned lottery odds.

The NBA has been on an anti-tanking tear recently, fining the Utah Jazz, who recently sat players against the Blazers, and investigating the not-tanking Oklahoma City Thunder for recently (checks notes) sitting players against the Blazers. There seems to be a theme brewing here.

The Portland Trail Blazers, on a driven quest to be the tenth-best team in the West, will obviously take wins and never look back. They’d probably make the case that they’d have found a way to win anyway. But they weren’t winning at the time, and barely held on at the end.

However, the Raptors undoubtedly would like to improve their draft position while not getting investigated or fined for tanking. And banking losses would be important for them: Toronto has one of the NBA’s easiest remaining schedules, while competition like Philadelphia is desperate to stay at 6th or higher in the draft, thanks to the top-6 protection of their pick. It’s very easy for a team to point to the starters and say that no tanking took place. But for the actual game observers, the tanking effort sure seemed to be blatant.

If the NBA wants tanking to actually be taken seriously, the league will need to decide if sitting starters is the only definition, or if situational choices need to be considered. Otherwise, the Raptors may have provided a handy template to other tanking teams for avoiding fines the rest of the season.

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