Presented by Intuit
London Playbook
By ANDREW MCDONALD
with BETHANY DAWSON
WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING: Donald Trump said he plans to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday. “A lot of work’s been done over the weekend,” the U.S. president — who is asking the Kremlin to agree to his 30-day ceasefire proposal in Ukraine — told reporters on Air Force One. “We want to see if we can bring that war to an end. Maybe we can, maybe we can’t, but I think we have a very good chance.”
Asked about concessions, Trump said: “We will be talking about land. We will be talking about power plants … we have a lot of it already discussed very much by both sides, Ukraine and Russia. We are already talking about that, dividing up certain assets.” Ulp.
AND NOW, SOME INTERNAL NEWS: POLITICO and Sky News’ award-winning political podcast has been formally renamed Politics at Sam and Anne’s, with our very own Anne McElvoy joining Sky News’ Sam Coates as a full-time host. Their pod crunching everything you need to know about the day ahead into 20 minutes is available from 7.30 a.m. Monday to Thursday. Your next episode should drop here shortly.
Good Monday morning. This is Andrew McDonald.
**A message from Intuit: UK small businesses that integrate digital tools into their business are more likely to report increased productivity. Intuit invited small business owners to share with UK policymakers how AI and digital adoption can level the playing field. Learn more.**
DRIVING THE DAY
PENNY FOR YOUR THOUGHTS, PENNY-PINCHERS: There’s one day to go until the government unveils its welfare reforms — and after a whirlwind of weekend news, Rachel Reeves and one of her lieutenants will face questions today about the extent and morality of cuts to benefits for disabled people. Angst-filled Labour MPs will be watching with interest as the purse string-holders face the cameras … even if they’re both trying to talk as much as possible about fresh DOGEian plans for cutting quangos and the like.
First: Emma Reynolds, the economic secretary to the Treasury, whom you may remember from December’s revolving door scandal (Reynolds denied representing Chinese businesses in her time as a lobbyist), is on the morning round for the government, including a Today program slot at 8.18 a.m. Full times, as always, are at the bottom of this email.
And for an alternative view … Unblockable Labour MP Diane Abbott is also due on Today around 8.10 a.m.
Later: After welcoming regulators to No. 11 for another red-tape cutting brainstorm (more on that below), Reeves will be interviewed by Bloomberg and Reuters for their respective TV channels. Those interviews are likely to air sometime after midday.
Previously, on Reeves watch: Speaking to hacks in Scotland on Friday, Reeves doubled down on the need to reform the welfare system and “get a grip.”
But since then … POLITICO was the first to report Friday night that a mooted blanket freeze to personal independence payments isn’t set to happen after all — a story that then splashed Sunday papers and was not hosed down by No. 10. The freeze was meant to be “scored” by the OBR quickly … leaving questions for Reeves about how much her department now expects to be saved. As ITV’s Anushka Asthana set out last night, the overall changes to welfare were originally set to raise well over £6 billion.
After all: Reeves’ Treasury is widely blamed for pushing unpopular (with campaigners and some MPs, at least) measures aimed at cutting costs by whatever means necessary — thanks to those pesky fiscal rules of hers that leave few options for raising cash.
Even with the freeze U-turn … there are still plenty of controversial changes set to go ahead when Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall addresses the Commons on Tuesday. To recap, the government is still likely to significantly tighten eligibility criteria for PIP payments and cut or freeze payments to long-term sick and disabled people in Universal Credit (separate from PIP). Which means lots of Labour MPs still aren’t at all happy, even with the “carrot” in all this — a “right-to-try” work guarantee for those on benefits — being floated in the Sunday papers.
Grumbles round-up: A Labour MP told the Guardian they were approaching the days ahead with “absolute horror” … Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham writes in the Times that he is concerned about the mooted changes and that “there is no case in any scenario for cutting the support available to disabled people who are unable to work” … and a Labour MP tells the i’s Eleanor Langford they’ve “heard a lot of colleagues say that this feels like a Tory approach, not a Labour policy.” All three papers splash on the unease among Labour MPs.
But but but: Will MPs get a chance to voice their displeasure? A blanket PIP freeze would’ve needed a full vote in the Commons and the Lords. When it comes to tightening eligibility, it’s not so clear.
WHAT THE TREASURY ACTUALLY WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: The addition of another regulator to Reeves’ tiny (but growing, TBF) bonfire of the quangos.
Take that, Office of the Regulator of Community Interest Companies! The chancellor will today announce the abolition — or at least the merger with Companies House — of the ORCIC … a regulator charged with deciding whether organizations are eligible to become community interest companies. Spicy stuff. It joins NHS England and the Payment Systems Regulator on the bonfire.
At least one of you will be fired: Nervously eyeing the bonfire will be the eight regulators summoned to No. 11 this morning for another meeting with Reeves about what they can do to cut red tape. Playbook is told Reeves won’t be giving the anxious regulators her best Donald Trump “You’re fired” impression, but they’ll surely understand the implicit threat in her commitment to significantly cut the number of quangos by the end of parliament. There will be pooled footage at the top of the meeting, kicking off at 9.30 a.m.
Potentially on the quango chopping block: The Sun’s Harry Cole hears that those “at the very top” of government are considering ditching the independent football regulator — which still hasn’t actually been set up yet. He also hears of a government memo from one of Starmer’s strategists which may make bureaucrats’ stomachs churn, including calls for the axing of a whole load more quangos and ending the “compensation culture” of government.
Not on the quango chopping block: The i’s Jane Merrick reports that Jenny Harries is safe, since her U.K. Health Security Agency is not one of the health bodies joining NHS England in the bin.
Trying to put out the bonfire: The regulators themselves have come forward with red-tape-busting plans the Treasury briefed out overnight. Among those 60 mooted measures put forward by the regulators — achieved “following weeks of intense negotiations,” as the Treasury breathlessly put it — are plans for more trials of flying drone deliveries, a consultation on scrapping the £100 contactless limit and the reduction of penalties for those switching mortgages. POLITICO’s James Fitzgerald caught wind of much of these plans last week.
(They’re really not) quiet bat people: There’s also yet more bat-bashing after last week’s efforts to kill the bat tunnels — which, FWIW, got mixed reviews on their effectiveness from the planning and infrastructure nerd crew on X. This time there’s a promise to streamline a current process under which local authorities have to refer to 132 pages of guidance on protecting bat habitats for planning applications. Bats are mentioned a full five times in the Treasury’s overnight release.
Trying to sell it: As he otherwise leaves the selling of this next stage of the regulatory bonfire to his lieutenants, Starmer has an op-ed in today’s City AM where he says he wants to “bring back the animal spirits of the private sector.” As long as that animal isn’t a bat, of course.
But but but: Most of this stuff is all subject to consultation and review … and it’s not clear yet how many of the plans exciting the Treasury will survive contact with the rest of Whitehall and the survivors of quangoland. Plus ça change.
ANOTHER ONE FOR REEVES TO RESPOND TO: The OECD will publish its interim economic outlook at 10 a.m. — the report that predicts growth rates of the G20 nations for the next year and a bit. Reeves could use a bit of good news to soften the bumpy landing from welfare cuts.
DRIP, DRIP: And elsewhere in debt news, the Court of Appeal looks set to decide this week whether Thames Water can get a £3 billion loan lifeline. If not, it could hasten the company’s demise. More from Reuters. The BBC’s Simon Jack reckons it could come as soon as today.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
BACK TO THE OLD HOUSE: David Lammy returns to the House of Commons this afternoon, fresh from meeting his foreign ministerial comrades at the G7 in Canada. He’s likely to make a statement, Playbook is told, updating MPs on what they discussed — with efforts to reach a lasting peace in Ukraine obviously top of the agenda. That statement will come anytime after 3.30 p.m. And if any MPs are struggling to think of things to ask the foreign secretary … here’s a nugget to press him on.
Scoop — JD and yolk: With perfect timing, Lammy is fresh off the plane from breakfast with JD Vance. He and his family, including Lammy’s wife Nicola Green, were guests at the vice president’s residence in Washington on Sunday — where the two families also took part in mass and had several hours of conversations, one diplomat in the U.S. tells my colleague Dan Bloom.
No word on what they talked about … and unusually, Lammy hasn’t yet publicized the meeting. But MPs will want to know what the two men discussed on Ukraine, given Starmer is still counting on a U.S. security “backstop” that feels somewhere between nebulous and nonexistent. It was also Lammy and Vance’s first face-to-face meeting (though not their first chat) since Vance’s Oval Office blowup with Volodymyr Zelenskyy … or ambush, depending on your flavor. Though considering Lammy has been friendly with Vance for a while now, it’s hard to imagine he played anything other than happy families.
Also of note: The Times’ Steve Swinford reports that Starmer is preparing to make an open-ended commitment to deploy British troops as peacekeepers in Ukraine for “as long as it takes.” That longevity problem, along with what these troops will actually do if Russia opens fire, is the big question being asked.
Otherwise … much of the U.K.-based action on Ukraine is looking likely to take place later this week. Military leaders from countries interested in Starmer’s coalition of the willing will meet in London Thursday — while officials will watch with interest for the outcome of Trump’s call with Putin tomorrow.
ALSO PLAYING HAPPY FAMILIES: Starmer will host new Canadian PM Mark Carney in Downing Street in the early evening, for their first in-person chat — Carney joined Starmer’s Teams Call of the Willing Saturday — since the former Bank of England boss ascended to the top of Canadian politics. It might well be a bit of a love-in between the two 60-something centrists — after all, remember Carney’s sparkling endorsement of Rachel Reeves back in 2023.
You can expect … pooled footage of the classic “warm words” at the top of their meeting, alongside the grab-and-grasp pic of the leaders presumably in front of the black door. Watch for any more winking antics from the Canadian.
You should not expect … a press conference from the pair. And No. 10 officials would last night only point to what Starmer has said previously on Canada’s sovereignty in the face of Trump’s annexation winks and hints — meaning you shouldn’t expect Starmer to go any further than his current position firmly on the fence between the U.S. and Canada. Carney will hope for some warmer words from the king when he meets him at some stage today, too.
MEANWHILE, ON THE RIGHT
THE SPARES COMPETE FOR AIR: Both Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage have speeches in the diary today as they look to seize a chunk of the agenda — following some, err, challenging headlines for both in the last week.
Farage goes first … with a press conference in London at noon alongside his remaining MPs and under-fire Chair Zia Yusuf. Rupert Lowe is not invited.
Define “special”: The party — which as usual isn’t trailing the presser — is promising a “special announcement” and wasn’t saying a whole lot last night about what that might be. A quick scan of Playbook’s emails revealed that this is the fourth time in the last six months the party has promised a “special announcement” at an event. Previously, that turned out to be a private prosecution of those involved in the altercation with police at Manchester Airport … the unveiling of Andrea Jenkyns as Lincolnshire mayoral candidate … and the recruitment of Nick Candy as treasurer.
Plus: Your Playbook author attended a Reform presser in February billed as “not one to miss,” which in the end was just Farage moaning about the postponement of some local election races.
Back to today … and a Reform insider predicts two possible avenues for today’s announcement — either the unveiling of a candidate for the Runcorn by-election, or a fresh defection to the party. Playbook hears some recent defectors to the party will be in attendance.
Look, squirrels! But the real purpose looks to be about regaining momentum for the party and moving on from the row around Rupert Lowe. “You will see that the Lowe stuff is at the edges, and that in the country people are joining us,” a senior Reform figure told Playbook. Reform supporters (fairly) point out that the messy battle around the now-independent MP doesn’t appear to have remotely damaged the party in the polls so far.
One Q for Nigel: Why is Jack Aaron, a Reform general election candidate who said Hitler was “brilliant” at inspiring people and that Vladimir Putin’s use of force in Ukraine was “legitimate,” in charge of party vetting (as the Guardian’s Ben Quinn reports)? A Reform spokesperson defended Aaron and pointed out that he is Jewish — and that the context of his quotes makes clear he still thinks Hitler is evil, too.
LATER IN THE DAY: Badenoch will address the Centre for Policy Studies’ Margaret Thatcher conference at 5.35 p.m. (full speakers agenda below). No word yet on the content of her speech — and she won’t be taking questions either, sadly for those hoping to ask her about the alleged “unite the right” plot to oust her. But there are fresh details to bring you of her policy development program set to be unveiled on Tuesday.
Kemi and Cameron: Echoing a process used by the party under David Cameron’s opposition leadership, PA reports — and Playbook hears they’re spot on — that each shadow secretary of state will lead on their portfolio and set out a series of core priority questions for consultation and external engagement. Badenoch will set this out in full tomorrow.
Which, in short … means ECHR-leaving advocate Robert Jenrick gets to be in charge of justice policy.
Are you thinking what we’re thinking? Tory Chairman Nigel Huddleston is taking his team to the Bodleian Library in Oxford to examine the party’s archive in search of policy ideas, slogans and campaign themes from the past as part of the party’s policy search, columnist Andrew Pierce reveals in today’s Mail.
Also on the Thatcher conference agenda: Opening remarks at noon from CPS Director Robert Colvile … a 12.40 p.m. panel with Public First Chair James Frayne, Conservative MP Katie Lam and the Times’ Fraser Nelson … a 2 p.m. panel with former Portuguese Secretary of State for European Affairs Bruno Maçães and Danube Institute President John O’Sullivan … a 3 p.m. keynote speech from President of the Madrid region Isabel Díaz Ayuso … a 3.35 p.m. session with former Chancellor George Osborne and Robert Colvile … a 4.35 p.m. panel with Public First founding partner Rachel Wolf and the Telegraph’s Kamal Ahmed … and then Badenoch’s speech at 5.35 p.m.
NFI’d: Rupert Lowe, who was initially billed to join the 4.35 p.m. panel but now doesn’t appear on the agenda. Will anyone give the poor MP something to do instead this afternoon?
TODAY IN WESTMINSTER
SCHOOLYARD BUST-UP: The government is at war with a former head of Ofsted — as critics step up their attacks on Bridget Phillipson’s education reforms with the Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill returning to parliament this afternoon.
Spielman’s spiel: Amanda Spielman, the former Ofsted head, told the Telegraph that the education secretary has bowed to the “demands of unions” with her reforms to academies — which will see the schools, unpopular with teaching unions, forced to teach the national curriculum among other changes. Spielman argued the bill will “cut the autonomy” of the schools. The paper splashes on her attack.
Prompting … this punchy source quote hitting right back at the former schools watchdog boss. “Amanda Spielman should spend less time criticizing the reforms this Government is bringing and more time reflecting on her failure at Ofsted and on a teaching profession that entirely lost confidence in her as chief inspector,” a government source told the paper. A government official added to Playbook that her attack is undermined by the fact the “unions aren’t our biggest fans at the moment.”
But but but: There’s still more criticism of the measures spread through the rest of today’s papers, with more academy chiefs noising off about the reforms in the Times, while the Sun’s Jack Elsom has quotes from an academy leader saying the changes will result in councils cutting places at academies so other schools in the area have enough children.
The Tories also want to talk about … banning phones in school, having launched a petition overnight in the wake of the watering down of a bill that would have done just that. The party’s education spokesperson Neil O’Brien is on the morning round.
Also on schools: MPs will debate amendments to the bill this afternoon, including Labour MP Jess Asato’s amendment to ban parents and carers from physically punishing children. Her amendment splashed the Sunday Express.
HAPPY ANNIVERSARY: Sunday marked five years to the day that Boris Johnson banned us all from going to the pub. As you queue for your St Paddy’s Day Guinnesses this eve, have a read of this smart piece from our own Noah Keate on how coronavirus and its impacts continue to shape our politics and the (dys)function of the state.
WONDER DRUG: A new cystic fibrosis drug has been approved for use by the MHRA and is so effective it causes the disease to “vanish,” according to the Express splash. The health care watchdog NICE is now doing a cost-benefit analysis to consider making it available on the NHS.
ER, WAS THAT THE PLAN? According to new research from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, the poorest parts of the U.K. are now poorer than the least well-off parts of countries such as Slovenia and Malta. The Big Issue has a write-up.
ER, WAS THERE A PLAN? The spring 2024 changes to the Skilled Worker visa route came without a detailed understanding of potential impacts across different industries and parts of the country, the NAO has found. Separately, the Times’ Matt Dathan reveals the backlog of appeals to rejected asylum claims has increased 500 percent in the last two years, making it harder to reduce the number of migrants living in hotels.
AT THE COVID-19 INQUIRY: DHSC’s former program director for oxygen and ventilation Chris Stirling kicks the day off at 10.30 a.m., followed by DHSC’s Director General of Secondary Care and Integration Matthew Style and NHS England’s National Clinical Director for Critical and Perioperative Care Ramani Moonesinghe. Stream here. It’s a big week for the inquiry, with former Health Secretary Matt Hancock giving evidence Wednesday.
SW1 EVENTS: Protesters are set to sit outside parliament from 1 p.m. in black cutting gowns receiving hair and beauty treatments to urge Rachel Reeves to reduce VAT on labour costs from 20 percent to 10 percent.
REPORTS OUT TODAY: Rachel Reeves should avoid hitting the living standards of lower-income families in her spring statement changes, says the Resolution Foundation … Legal tobacco sales have nearly halved since 2021, but the number of smokers declined by just 0.5 percent. The IEA says the “only plausible explanation for this” is rapid growth of black market tobacco sales.
HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with work and pensions questions … the remaining stages of the Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill … and a motion on behalf of the committee of selection. Lib Dem MP Josh Babarinde has the adjournment debate on domestic abuse offences.
WESTMINSTER HALL: Debates from 4.30 p.m. on an e-petition relating to compensation for women affected by state pension changes (led by Lib Dem MP Roz Savage).
On committee corridor: Home Office perm sec Matthew Rycroft discusses tackling violence against women and girls with the Public Accounts Committee (3 p.m.).
HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with questions on accelerating the construction of primary health care facilities to assist patients moving from hospital to community care, the work of the Media Freedom Coalition, and implementing a strategy to prevent violence against women and girls … committee stage of the Mortgage Prisoners Inquiry Bill … report stage of the Football Governance Bill … and a short debate on policy about the Ukraine war following the new policy of the U.S. government.
BEYOND THE M25
NORTH MACEDONIA TRAGEDY: A massive fire at a crowded nightclub in North Macedonia killed at least 59 people and wounded 155 on Sunday. The blaze, which is believed to have been started by sparks from pyrotechnic devices, has put a spotlight on corruption in the tiny Balkan country. Authorities have arrested 15 people, the Associated Press reports.
WATCHING THE WHITE HOUSE: Contradictory signals from Donald Trump are causing European allies to worry that Washington is no longer a reliable partner on holding Russia in check — and making their own punitive measures against Moscow much more difficult to enforce. My colleague Gabriel Gavin has the story of how Trump will make or break Brussels’ sanctions against Russia.
STICKING TO IT: Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended the decision to detain a U.S. green card holder over his involvement in last year’s pro-Palestinian protests at Columbia University and said that “pro-Hamas” protesters who hold student visas will be forced to leave the U.S. Read the story on POLITICO.
**A message from Intuit: We asked James Vincent, Co-founder and CEO of Hot Source Creative in Bath: As a small business owner, what would you like policymakers to know about using digital tools and AI? 'We’ve fully embraced digital tools to streamline our marketing campaigns, client management, and internal operations. Implementing automation for project workflows and customer engagement has significantly increased efficiency and scalability. AI has been a game-changer in our business, particularly in content creation, audience segmentation, and campaign optimization. Tools like AI-powered analytics and automation have allowed us to provide more data-driven marketing strategies for clients.' Learn how AI-powered digital tools can impact small business growth, and how policymakers can help.**
MEDIA ROUND
Economic Secretary to the Treasury Emma Reynolds broadcast round: Times Radio (7.05 a.m.) … Sky News (7.15 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … Today (8.18 a.m.) … GMB (8.30 a.m.) … GB News (9.05 a.m.).
Shadow Education Minister Neil O’Brien broadcast round: GB News (7.30 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.45 a.m.) … Sky News (8.15 a.m.) … LBC News (8.45 a.m.) … Talk (9.05 a.m.).
Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Refugee Council CEO Enver Solomon (8.05 a.m.) … Reform UK’s immigration and justice spokesperson Ann Widdecombe (8.10 a.m.) … former Ofsted Chief Inspector Amanda Spielman (8.35 a.m.).
Also on Times Radio Breakfast: Deputy of the Russian Duma Yevgeny Popov (7.35 a.m.) … senior Hamas official Basem Naim (8.35 a.m.).
Also on Sky News Breakfast: Independent MP and former Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell (7.45 a.m.) … U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk (9.20 a.m.).
Also on LBC News: Phone-in with Israeli government spokesperson David Mencer (4 p.m.).
Politics Live (BBC Two 12.15 p.m.): Labour MP Lauren Edwards … Conservative MP Iain Duncan Smith … journalist and historian Taj Ali … former No. 10 Director of Communications Guto Harri.
TODAY’S FRONT PAGES
POLITICO UK: Five years on, British politics still can’t escape Covid-19.
Daily Express: Miracle drug makes cystic fibrosis ‘vanish.’
Daily Mail: Death of the work ethic.
Daily Mirror: We will not become victims of this.
Daily Star: The sun has got its Pat on.
Financial Times: US shoppers tighten belts as tariffs and market volatility sap confidence.
i: Labour disabilities benefits cuts rebellion grows despite No 10 concessions.
Metro: Docs over-diagnose mental issues.
The Daily Telegraph: Phillipson under fire for bowing to unions.
The Guardian: Anger grows over Starmer’s ‘£675 a month’ disability cuts.
The Independent: ‘No ceasefire will work’ — medics on Ukraine front scorn Trump’s peace talks.
The Sun: I can’t take any Maura.
The Times: Labour war of words on disability benefits.
LONDON CALLING
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: A cloudy morning, but the sun will burst through around lunchtime. High 11C, low 2C.
In a pickle: Labour MP Charlotte Nichols dressed up as a pickle for Friday’s Purim celebrations at Westminster Synagogue … which was swiftly followed by a Bluesky post saying she is being called to resign over the photos.
JOB ADS: The Scottish Conservative Parliamentary Group needs a researcher … Labour MP Liz Kendall is hiring a senior parliamentary assistant … Labour MP Jas Athwal is on the hunt for a caseworker … Conservative MP Aphra Brandreth is hiring a press and diary officer … Conservative MP Rebecca Smith needs a parliamentary assistant.
WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TUESDAY MORNING: Andrew McDonald.
BIRTHDAYS: Shadow Cabinet Office Minister Mike Wood … Aspinall Foundation director of comms and wife of ex-PM Boris Johnson Carrie Johnson … Science Minister Patrick Vallance … Shadow Foreign Minister Andrew Rosindell … former Midlothian MP Owen Thompson … crossbench peer and former Treasury minister Jim O’Neill … Tory peer and former “Britain Stronger in Europe” chief Stuart Rose … Senior Deputy Speaker in the House of Lords John Gardiner … former Belfast Chamber of Commerce CEO Simon Hamilton … former U.K. Ambassador to UAE Patrick Moody … Milton Keynes North MP Chris Curtis … the i’s Benjamin Butterworth.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Zoya Sheftalovich, Dan Bloom and Alex Spence, diary reporter Bethany Dawson and producer Dean Southwell.
SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | London Playbook PM | Playbook Paris | EU Election Playbook | Berlin Playbook | Global Playbook | POLITICO Confidential | Sunday Crunch | EU Influence | London Influence | China Watcher | Berlin Bulletin | Living Cities | D.C. Playbook | D.C. Influence | All our POLITICO Pro policy morning newsletters