Written by Suzana Anghel and Mario Damen.
By waging war on Ukraine, Russia looked for a reset of the European security architecture as established at the end of the Cold War, for a new delimitation of spheres of influence, and a place at the table with the global powers, the US and China. This may come at the expense of the Europeans, as they continue to search for their geopolitical footprint and slowly build a European pillar in NATO. This pillar can benefit from the efforts undertaken in the European Union to build strategic autonomy by bolstering defence capabilities and stepping up industrial defence cooperation.
In this new and changing geopolitical context in which big powers are back, where transactionalism gains ground by the day, and where alliances are tested, Europeans need to rise to the task and the existential challenge ahead of them. Will they take up the challenge or will they suffer their fate?
To explore this question, this study started from the view that the future is plural, that there are multiple possible futures, and, hence, different outcomes for a new European security architecture. As the past informs the present and the future, this study looked at security and defence developments which have occurred since World War II, analysing the evolution of key security organisations in Europe – NATO, the CSCE/OSCE and the EU – and the defence policies of nine selected countries.
After exploring the past and examining the present, with the use of foresight methodology, including consultations with in-house defence experts and interviews with 15 external foreign and security policy experts, this study led to the development of five possible scenarios for a new European security architecture. Drivers of change, internal and external to the EU, were identified and tested. The horizon considered for four scenarios is 2035, while the scenario necessitating a more cooperative international environment is, based on the views of the consulted experts, more likely to happen over a longer period, possibly by 2045 or even 2050.
The expert interviews pointed to an increasingly antagonistic world in the next decade, which is reflected in four of the scenarios – Antagonism, European NATO, the European Defence Union and Patchwork. These scenarios take into consideration the degree of (dis)engagement of the US from Europe, EU-NATO relations, the possible outcome of the Ukraine war, and the actions of Russia and China. Whilst Antagonism can largely be seen as a continuation of the current state of play, with a solid transatlantic relationship anchored in NATO, the Patchwork scenario is the most disruptive, with no strong alliance and where Europe becomes a playground. Conversely, the study demonstrates that a new détente (relaxation of relations among global powers) leading to a more cooperative world needs a new triggering factor. This scenario, entitled Cooperative co-existence, would require beyond a decade possibly to happen.
The analysis shows that Europeans would need to compensate for further US disengagement from Europe, if this happens, either through a European NATO or a European Defence Union – if, in the long run, they wish to matter as a geopolitical actor both for their allies and for their competitors. Otherwise, European nations and the EU are at risk of becoming irrelevant, an existential risk they face collectively and individually. To counter this risk, the study confirms that Europeans need to increase defence funding – in the case of further US disengagement possibly by above 5 % of GDP – strengthen their capabilities, including nuclear and space capabilities, keep pace with the technological race and bolster the European defence industrial network.
The study presents a number of policy considerations which may prove useful for policy-makers. They describe, for instance, how, by developing its strategic autonomy, the EU may enhance its agency in defence matters, preserve transatlantic ties and allow the European interest to prevail.
Read the complete study on ‘The future European security architecture: Dilemmas for EU strategic autonomy‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.
Defence spending of four NATO countries as a percentage of GDP over the period 1955-2020
Timeline and pathways
Scenario matrix of the drivers ‘EU capacity to act’ and ‘Nature of world order’
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