The history of Iran's nuclear program coincides with the period of the Shah’s regime, when relations with the United States were significantly stronger than they are today. In 1957, during the reign of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Tehran signed a "civil nuclear cooperation agreement" with its ally, the United States. After the Islamic Revolution in 1979, and in the context of the events that followed, including the seizure of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, relations between Iran and the U.S. sharply deteriorated. These events also had a negative impact on the steps taken within the nuclear program.
Starting in the 2000s, Iran began working on uranium enrichment. In 2003, as a result of negotiations led by countries such as Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, Iran halted its uranium enrichment activities. However, in the subsequent phase, this process resumed. During this time, the United Nations Security Council imposed sanctions on Iran. In January 2012, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran had enriched uranium up to 20% at the Fordow facility. Following the sanctions, the European Union froze the assets of Iran’s Central Bank and halted oil imports from Iran.
In 2013, with the election of Hassan Rouhani as President of Iran, nuclear negotiations were reignited, and a diplomatic exchange process began among high-level officials for this purpose. Initial steps towards signing an agreement were taken in 2013 between Iran and the parties seeking to limit its nuclear program. However, the official announcement of the agreement took place in 2015.
**Formal Agreement in Nuclear Diplomacy**
The nuclear agreement between Iran and the multilateral group of states known as the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) was endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2231 on July 20, 2015. The agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is subject to ongoing verification by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which ensures that Iran complies with the nuclear-related provisions as outlined in the agreement.
Under the terms of the agreement, Iran agreed to allow inspections of its uranium enrichment and research centers and to dismantle a significant portion of its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. However, at the time of signing the agreement, Iran did not commit to refrain from producing highly enriched uranium or plutonium that could be used for nuclear weapons.
Thus, the agreement limited the number and types of centrifuges Iran could operate, the level of enrichment it could pursue, and the volume of enriched uranium it could stockpile. The main objective of the deal was to limit Iran’s ability to produce nuclear weapons. The Obama administration in the United States expressed that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action would prevent Iran from secretly developing a nuclear program.
The primary reason Iran accepted the agreement was to alleviate the international sanctions that were crippling its economy and isolating it on the global stage. In 2016, reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran was adhering to all the provisions of the agreement. This was a key factor in the gradual removal of sanctions and the steps taken towards their relief.
**Sanctions and the Diminished Importance of the Agreement**
After Donald Trump’s election as President in 2017, tensions began to rise in various areas. As a result, the United States withdrew from the agreement in 2018. In the following phase, new sanctions were imposed on Iran, and due to gaps in the implementation of commitments under the agreement by other countries, Iran began violating the provisions of the deal and accelerated its uranium enrichment activities starting in 2019.
In April 2020, the United States announced its intention to lift the sanctions, but this move was opposed by other signatory countries, citing the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018. By November 2021, Iran had accumulated a stockpile of highly enriched uranium well beyond the agreed-upon limits. During this period, Iran resumed enrichment activities at Fordow and installed more centrifuges than permitted under the agreement.
From 2015 to 2018, as a result of the lifting of sanctions on Iran, the country gained access to international markets. The removal of sanctions led to a rapid decline in inflation, stabilization of currency exchange rates, and a significant increase in exports, particularly of oil and agricultural products. After the agreement came into effect, Iran began exporting more than 2.1 million barrels of oil per day.
After the events of 2018, another factor contributing to Iran’s non-compliance with the terms of the agreement was the presence of a strong candidate for oil exports, namely China. From this stage onward, China-Iran relations began to expand significantly. Since then, Iran’s oil sales to China have helped increase its daily crude oil exports to an average of 1.1-1.2 million barrels by the end of 2022. In 2017, Iran’s oil exports to China accounted for only 25%, but by 2023, this figure had risen to 90%.
Despite the discussions during the 2021-2022 period by U.S. President Joe Biden about revisiting the terms of the agreement and reassessing relations with Iran, the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine in 2022 and the clashes between Israel and Hamas in 2023 hindered the continuation of the process. After Donald Trump’s re-election as President in 2024, pressure on Iran increased once again.
According to data from the Nuclear Threat Initiative, which assesses nuclear and radiological security conditions, as of October 2024, Iran's total enriched uranium stockpile amounts to 6,604 kg, and the amount of uranium enriched to 60% as of November 2024 is 182.3 kg.
**China's Approach to the Issue and the Beijing Meeting**
Between 2023 and 2025, Iran's strategic relations with China and Russia strengthened significantly. This development paved the way for Iran to ensure both its economic and political independence, as well as to further legitimize its nuclear program on the international stage. On March 14, 2025, in Beijing, a trilateral meeting involving Iran, Russia, and China at the level of Deputy Foreign Ministers addressed several key issues. The main goal of the meeting was to establish a "discussion table" aimed at lifting sanctions, which had been imposed through the efforts of certain parties.
As a result of the meeting, a joint statement was issued by China's Deputy Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Alekseevich Ryabkov, and Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Qaribabadi. In this statement, the three countries emphasized the necessity of lifting all illegal unilateral sanctions. The statement also reaffirmed the importance of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and reiterated that Iran’s nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes. Furthermore, it called for the relevant parties to refrain from sanctions, pressure, and threats of force, and avoid actions that could escalate tensions.
In China's five-point proposal regarding Iran’s nuclear issue, one of the key points was the opposition to the intervention of the UN Security Council. It was noted that, under the current circumstances, a hasty intervention by the UN Security Council would not help build trust between the parties or resolve their differences.
Based on the growing positive dynamics in China-Iran relations, China hosted talks in 2023 regarding the restoration of diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The agreement was achieved through China’s mediation. In this context, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a party to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), China will continue to maintain communication and coordination with all relevant parties and actively promote peace talks.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated in a press briefing that the Beijing meeting would be beneficial for making progress in resolving Iran's nuclear issue. Mao added that China is ready to work with other parties for a fair and balanced resolution of the nuclear issue and to promote international and regional stability.
**Conclusion and Evaluation**
In this section, possible future scenarios regarding Iran's nuclear program will be analyzed using scenario-building methodology.
Although Iran denies having nuclear weapons, many countries, especially the United States and Israel, remain concerned about the possibility of Iran obtaining them. In the context of recent developments in the Middle East, Iran's potential possession of nuclear weapons would not only balance power with Israel but also expand its military capabilities. On July 17, 2022, Kamal Kharrazi, a senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, stated in an interview with Al Jazeera that Iran was technically capable of producing a nuclear bomb, but had not yet decided whether to do so. Following the tensions, especially between Iran and Israel, the process of Iran advancing in its nuclear capabilities could accelerate, potentially leading to new developments in this direction.
The issue has gained renewed attention in 2025 due to the expiration of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231 on October 18, 2025. This resolution aimed to closely monitor Iran's nuclear activities, and its termination could lead to the end of international pressure on Iran, potentially stabilizing its nuclear activities under international law and security standards.
Historically, it is well known that the U.S. and Iran shared strong bilateral relations until the 1979 Iranian Revolution, after which new obstacles emerged. Since then, the bilateral framework has progressively narrowed, and relations have increasingly deteriorated. Considering that much of this tension stems from the regime change in Iran, it is possible that in the future, the normalization of U.S.-Iran relations could occur if the existing regime in Iran changes.
Furthermore, considering current events, the United States has taken a positive stance toward Russia. However, it is uncertain how this approach will evolve after Trump’s presidency. If a regime change occurs in Iran, we could witness a shift in the U.S.'s stance toward Iran, primarily due to the rapid rise of China as a challenger to U.S. hegemony. Currently, China maintains positive relations with both Russia and Iran, which could influence future diplomatic shifts.
In conclusion, it is likely that the removal of sanctions imposed on Iran could open the door to closer relations between the U.S. and Iran and create new opportunities for dialogue regarding Iran's nuclear program. However, all of this remains speculative for now, as global politics is subject to changes driven by well-considered and strategically significant actions from global actors.
Between 2015 and 2025, steps taken in Iran's nuclear program have led to significant changes in international relations and regional security. Iran's nuclear program has not been limited to atomic energy issues but has also introduced new approaches related to international power struggles and regional power balances. Throughout this process, diplomatic negotiations, economic pressures, and the increasing role of strategic alliances have constantly reshaped the boundaries of Iran's nuclear policy.
##### Source: Ramil Jalilov is from Azerbaijan. He works as a researcher at the International Diplomatic Relations Academic Research and Education Association (UDİAD), based in Turkey. Photo: Iran Nuclear program - Getty images
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