The Thunder have missed arguably their second-best player for most of the year and are still on pace for 67 wins.
But hey, nobody should fear them because they haven’t won yet, and goofing around in post-game interviews is “alarming.”
Therapy sessions with Draymond aside, it’s naive to not believe that OKC is the overwhelming favorite in the West. Yes, they haven’t reached the finals with this group before, but all indications point to this being a historically good team that should only get better.
So, it’s time to analyze the Thunder’s twin towers lineup before discussing one of the West’s secondary contenders in Minnesota.
Double big lineups are so back!
Sam Presti is a wizard.
Somehow, even after finishing atop the West last year and turning OKC into the best-positioned team in NBA history, he still managed to make the best offseason signing in Isaiah Hartenstein.
And, because it’s the Thunder, the fit between iHart and Chet has been as smooth as can be. Defensively, the principle is quite simple: have Chet be a roamer and guard the perimeter if needed, while Hartenstein is assigned to the opposing center and acts as the primary rim protector. It’s not a novel concept, but one that’s become more popular recently due to the influx of skilled bigs who are dominating the league, especially against Nikola Jokic.
That exact strategy was utilized in OKC’s baseball series against Denver last week. In the clip below, Jokic isos in the paint against Hartenstein while all other players are stationed on the weak side. Even so, Chet has his attention on Big Chungus the entire time as he plays the roamer, and he sags off of a non-shooter in Aaron Gordon. Chet contests as soon as Jokic gets around Hartenstein, causing Jokic to miss an otherwise easy shot, but Gordon’s there to clean up the rebound.
With the twin towers playing, it shouldn’t be surprising that the Thunder are holding opponents to shooting just 62% within four feet of the basket, good for the 90th percentile across all lineups in the league. What is eyebrow-raising, though, is their defensive rating of 114.3, which would rank 14th league-wide and is a far cry from their historic 107.4 figure as a whole.
Some of that is due to poor shooting luck, as opponents are making 38.6% (13th percentile defensively) of their threes. That’s largely out of the Thunder’s control and should regress, but what they can control is the number of threes that are conceded. Alarmingly, 43.7% of opponent shots against OKC are from deep (4th percentile), and 15.2% are from the corners (0 percentile).
In other words, with both bigs playing, the Thunder have been one of the worst defensive teams at limiting the number of threes their opponents take, especially from the most dangerous spot on the court. With that said, OKC also gives up an abundance of threes even without playing their two bigs. Overall, the Thunder still concede 40.7% of opponent shots from deep (20th percentile) and 12.2% from the corners (9th percentile), so there’s a much larger sample size of them being a historic defensive team even while deploying this unorthodox style.
Moreover, OKC can toggle their lineups according to their matchup, and that versatility is what makes this Thunder team so frightening. They can roll out the two bigs to go up against teams such as Denver, Minnesota, and a potential finals matchup against Cleveland/Boston, and if that doesn’t work, OKC can fall back on playing one big and go back to merely putting up *checks note* historic defensive numbers. Lastly, the Thunder’s big lineup will naturally improve defensively once they log more minutes together and the opponent shooting cools down, so apologies to anyone who thought they’d discovered a chink in OKC’s impenetrable armor.
Even more encouraging is that the Thunder have a mind-bending 127.2 offensive rating (99th percentile) when playing their twin towers, which means that they still have a +12.9 net rating even with a defense that will continue to improve.
The success of OKC’s attack is predicated on their ability to play 4-out around a skilled big in Hartenstein, who can handle and pass. Chet, in particular, is the key that unlocks this lineup. His 35.1% accuracy from downtown is by no means elite, but it forces the other team to respect him from the perimeter. His unique combination of size and agility allows him to shoot over smaller guards or blow by slower bigs, which creates more space for Hartenstein to operate.
In the first clip below, Jamal Murray is crossmatched in transition, forcing him to guard Chet. The latter’s shooting threat forces Murray to bite on his pump fake, and once Chet gets by Murray, it’s an easy alley-oop to Hartenstein in a two-on-one against Jokic. After that, Chet and Hartenstein improvise a two-man action that forces MPJ to switch on to a bigger Hartenstein, and that mismatch is created because Jokic is stretched out due to Chet’s gravity.
Both bigs are also skilled enough to run pick and rolls. When the two ran a side action in their recent showdown against Boston, Luke Kornet was left a step behind Hartenstein, resulting in an easy bucket for the latter. Any set that gives iHart a good look from the paint is an efficient shot given that he’s making 51% (81st percentile) of his looks in the short mid (between 4-14 feet of the basket) and 71% (67th percentile) within 4 feet of the rim.
Impressively, OKC’s two bigs offense seems largely sustainable. They’re making a pedestrian 36.1% from three (48th percentile) while only attempting 33.8% of their shots from deep (10th percentile), and the only area that might experience some regression is from the mid-range, as they’re making an impossible 60.2% (100th percentile) on those looks. Even so, this is one of the best mid-range teams in the league, so even if they regress to their usual standards, the Thunder will still maintain an ORTG in the 120s.
In short, arguably the best team in the league will only get better, as their twin towers continue to build chemistry. The rest of the West is still a question mark, but one thing is certain: the path to the final runs through OKC.
Julius Randle is good again! (For the 100th time)
Julius Randle is the most Jekyll and Hyde player in the league.
Dubious Handles started the season firing missiles at Stone Hands Gobert, but has somehow become the driving force behind the Wolves’ current eight-game winning streak. In fact, Minnesota has won 13 straight with Randle in the lineup going back to the end of January before his adductor injury.
The biggest factor that’s led to the Wolves’ improved play has been Randle’s playmaking. He’s averaging 6.3 assists per game since returning to the lineup when that number was 4.5 before, and it’s evident that Minnesota trusts his decision-making more.
In the clips below, Randle found the open man on three consecutive possessions, on very similar sets. On the first two plays, the Wolves posted him up in the paint, and Randle swung the rock to Jaden McDaniels as soon as Charlotte sent help. Then, Minnesota put the ball in Randle’s hands in transition, and his downhill threat collapsedd the Hornets’ defense, giving him an easy pass back to an open Ant.
The reason such plays work is because of Randle’s potency in the post. On the season, he’s averaging the 20th most post-ups per game while scoring 1.09 points on such plays, ranking in the 72nd percentile. Randle is too strong for forwards and too fast for centers, which often results in plays like this:
Impressively, the Wolves have a positive net rating in every important lineup featuring Randle: Minnesota has outscored teams with Randle playing with Ant and Gobert, and Randle without one or both of those stars, too. Randle and Gobert developing chemistry has been the biggest positive change for the Wolves, as the team was barely break even at the start of the season but now sits at a +3.7 net rating with them on. Minnesota has flirted with a double-digit net rating with those two on for a few months now, and the former dysfunctional fit is now fully a thing of the past.
As always, though, unsustainable three-point shooting has played a part in the Wolves’ recent run. During this eight-game winning streak since Randle’s returned, Minnesota is ranked first in both three-point percentage (42.4%) and opponent three-point percentage (32.2%). This has helped them rack up the league’s second-best offense (124.9) and defense (108.5) during that span, and you don’t need James Nesmith to explain why such a stretch is unsustainable.
Still, even before these eight games, the Wolves were 14th on offense (115) and 6th on defense (111.5). Given their newfound chemistry, I fully expect Minnesota to be top 10 on both ends of the floor for the rest of the season — the sign of a legitimate contender. I wouldn’t put them in the same tier as OKC, Boston, or Cleveland, but the Wolves can beat any other team in the Western Conference.
This week, please check out Jeje’s article on what De’Aaron Fox’s season-ending surgery means for the Spurs. It sucks to see another star player miss the remainder of the year, but it could pay dividends for San Antonio in the long run.
Thanks for reading!
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.