Arsenal get a much needed win against a hated rival
Arsenal not finishing in the top 4 or 5 was never in a lot of doubt but if they had not won yesterday it could have gotten real interesting for the team. I still think they would have done it but we would be looking over our shoulder at the teams that are chasing Arsenal.
Now Arsenal enter the international break 4 points clear over Nottingham Forest, nine points clear of Chelsea, 10 points above Manchester City and 11 points (plus a game played more) more than Newcastle. The latest betting spreads expect Arsenal around 77 points and the chasers now all in the mid to upper 60’s making second place and a secured spot in the Champions League next season all but taken care of.
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That is a much more comfortable position to be in and with nine matches to play, sets things up nicely to keep it pretty stress free.
That is also how I think this match against Chelsea went, stress free. It wasn’t the greatest attacking outing but it was Arsenal in full control. I still expect that this will be the norm for Arsenal the rest of the way so it will probably be good to calibrate our expectations more towards this.
Arsenal 1-0 Cheslea: The Graphics
Arsenal 1-0 Cheslea: The Debrief
The defense shines
15.8 - Chelsea’s shots per match average this season, third most in the league
8 - Shots for Chelsea in this match, tied for the fewest this season
1.93 - Chelsea’s xG per match average this season, second highest in the league
0.4 - xG for Chelsea in this match, the lowest they have had in a match this season
30.0 - Chelsea’s touches in the box average this season, fourth in the league
8 - Touches in the box for Chelse in this match, the fewest they have had in a match this season.
Chelsea have been an above average attacking team this season, Mikel Arteta gave them a bit too much credit calling them the best attacking team but if he had instead said one the 2-3 best, I don’t think there could have been too much nit picking about that comment.
That does make what Arsenal did here all the more impressive because they held them to basically nothing here.
Chelsea had a bit more of the possession (58 to 42) and had the field tilt numbers close but they were unable to create moments of danger against Arsenal. This is the classic we have no ideas how to penetrate passing map and a big reason for that was that Arsenal were very focused and didn’t leave gaps for them to exploit at all.
To be fair to them they were without a number of attacking options here, including their best two attackers. They are also the team that has spent the most on attacking talent and has the longest depth chart for attackers, perhaps there is a bit of a lesson in that while depth is nice, it is the quality of players and also who you come up against on the day.
Arsenal held this team to one of their worst overall displays this season.
Arsenal have been an impressive defensive team and that has kept them in a lot of games providing the platform for everything else that they do. This match adds another game onto the streak of not allowing more than 2 goals. This stretches back to December 2023 now to the match against Luton.
Under Mikel Arteta, Arsenal have conceded 3 or more goals just 19 times, that is 7% of the total matches he has been in charge of. That number was 12 times under Emery and 15% of the matches, and 96 times under Wenger and 8% of the matches played.
The attack is still missing the final action
12 - Shots for Arsenal, this is now 13 of 29 matches where Arsenal have taken 12 or fewer shots this season and 22 of 29 where the team has taken fewer than 15 shots this season. For comparison, Arsenal had 7 of 38 matches with 12 or fewer shots and 15 of 38 with fewer than 15 shots last season.
The lack of shots is a worrying trend, and it is not a great long-term strategy for scoring 2 and 3 goals if you are managing that few of shots.
0.7 - Arsenal’s xG in this match, this is tied for the lowest tally in the League this season and the seventh time the team has created less than 1.0 xG this season. Last season they were held under 1.0 just six times in 38 matches.
8 - Shots inside the penalty box from 26 touches, 30% of the touches turning into a shot. For the season Arsenal have had 292 shots inside the box from 955 touches (30.5%) by comparison Liverpool had generated 365 shots in the box from 1001 touches (36.4%). The extra efficiency and volume are one the reasons for the gap between the teams this season.
Arsenal generated a bit more than Chelsea and perhaps with the early first half goal were pretty content to not take too much of a risk and leave an opening for Chelsea to exploit.
This was certainly a story of Arsenal being better at penetrating and getting into more hurtful areas than Chelsea but they still lacked that cutting edge to create clearer looks at goal here.
Arsenal continue their romp against Chelsea
8 - Wins against Chelsea under Mikel Arteta
61.5% - Arteta’s win percentage against Chelsea
2 - Losses in 13 matches played against Chelsea, none since August 2021
26 - Goals scored for Arsenal
14 - Goals allowed by Arsenal
Arsenal having the hoodoo over a team like Chelsea brings me immense joy. They have always been the team that has caused me pain, they have been the London rival that has been consistently better than Arsenal and they changed the landscape of the League with their free spending ways. I dislike the way they have been run and they just overall rub me the wrong way.
From 2004/05 to 2019/20 the matchup was so one-sided.
10 - Wins against Chelsea for Arsenal
25.6% - Arsenal’s win percentage in this time period against Chelsea
17 - Losses against Chelsea in 39 played
41 - Goals scored
60 - Goals allowed
I love beating Chelsea and I love that Arteta has turned this matchup from one where we dread what they will do to us, to one where Arsenal has the advantage.
St. Totteringham’s Day Update
4 - Arsenal’s magic number to guarantee another season of finishing above Tottenham
Arsenal play Fulham at home on April 1st and a win can bring that down to just 1 point needed, Tottenham play Chelsea two days later and that could be the moment where they drop the points needed to give us the great holiday.
The forecast is definitely looking like it will be sometime between April 3rd and April 6th so be sure you have your party supplies stocked and ready.
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