Problem
On March 18th, Germany’s federal parliament will likely pass a constitutional amendment to allow the next government to significantly increase defence spending. With the amendment, future spending on the German armed forces as well as civil defence and resilience, cyber and information security, intelligence services and support for Ukraine exceeding 1% of GDP will be exempt from the debt break. While a welcome start, the next German government will need to spend these newly available funds wisely if they are to adequately bolster Germany’s contribution to European defence.
Solution
Germany’s likely next chancellor Friedrich Merz stressed that the defence of “freedom and peace on our continent” will now not be hamstrung by a lack of resources. The next government should therefore prioritise:
1. Implementing NATO’s regional and domain-specific defence plans, which requires the alliance to grow its collective military capability by one third. Some areas, such as ground-based air defences, will need to quadruple from current numbers. Currently, alliance officials are negotiating with individual governments their national capability targets.
Germany’s next government should not aim to just clear the bar—which will already be a considerable challenge—but to lay the groundwork to adapt to sudden US disengagement from the alliance. This will require even more equipment and ammunitions.
2. It will also require more investment in personnel and infrastructure. Both the German military’s active component and the reserve force will need significant expansion in the coming years. According to Germany’s chief of defence, the armed forces should be able to put 100,000 more troops in uniform by the end of the decade, bringing the total to at least 460,000.
All these people will require housing, instructors and training areas, and equipment stockpiles. The German military is already struggling to maintain high levels of personnel and materiel readiness across the force: barracks are decaying and training areas are too small and too few to conduct large-scale, high-intensity exercises. Germany’s next government should modernise existing armed forces real estate and reactivate closed-down sites where possible. It should also build using national security exemptions to access land where necessary.
3. Finally, it should conduct a risk assessment of foreign dependencies in military systems. The Trump administration’s temporary halt of military aid to Ukraine has made European governments reconsider some of their defence procurements. While the US government may not be able to turn off a particular weapon system from one moment to the next, supply-chain and data-link dependencies mean that American opposition could severely impact the operation of US-sourced equipment.
Germany’s next government should assess the risks of its dependencies in its military supply chains. But de-risking one relationship should not create vulnerabilities elsewhere. Berlin should also encourage the creation of an EU defence single market without single points of failure—be they industrial or political.
Context
The amendment between the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), the Social Democrats, and the Greens will most likely pass on Tuesday with the necessary two-thirds majority.
After the new parliament forms on March 25th, this voting coalition would not be enough. Convening the old parliament before then, is unusual but not illegal. Given broad public support for the debt-financed defence spending hike, Germans also view it as legitimate.
The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. ECFR publications only represent the views of their individual authors.