President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un shake hands at the 2018 U.S.-North Korea summit. / Image: Kevin Lim/THE STRAITS TIMES
The world recently witnessed the United States suspending military aid to Ukraine after President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance publicly berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to his face.
This scene starkly illustrates how the world is rapidly returning to great power politics and neo-imperialism governed by the law of the jungle. Meanwhile, South Korea finds itself floundering, mired in a political crisis following the presidential impeachment and emergency declaration of martial law.
A Call for Conditional Nuclear Armament
When Trump took office for his second term in January, I proposed that Prime Minister Han Duck-soo—an experienced security and economic expert with strong U.S. connections who was impeached without proper justification—should be reinstated quickly. South Korea could then proactively lead discussions with the United States based on our shared values and, if necessary, play the “conditional nuclear armament” card.
Unfortunately, South Korea’s president—or acting president—who should be leading the nation has been absent, unable to even call Trump once. It’s frustrating and infuriating to hear talk of “Korea-passing”—the possibility that Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un might engage in direct negotiations without South Korean involvement.
We must approach this rationally. South Korea needs to quickly resolve its leadership vacuum and shift to a strategy that strengthens our preparedness rather than clinging to the clearly limited “North Korean denuclearization” policy based on international norms and goodwill from our adversaries.
We cannot ignore several critical factors:
The North Korean threat has intensified to unprecedented levels
The relationship between redeploying tactical nuclear weapons and Trump’s strategy to contain China
Japan’s existing authority to reprocess used nuclear fuel and enrich uranium
Near-unanimous public support in South Korea for developing our own nuclear arsenal
As I emphasized in January: “South Korea must consider an ‘independent nuclear arsenal’ based on self-defense provisions in Article 10 of the NPT as the North Korean nuclear threat continues to escalate. However, we should publicly discuss ‘conditional nuclear armament’ where South Korea would return to non-nuclear status if North Korea abandons its weapons. This approach would also strengthen our position when negotiating with the United States on North Korea policy, security, and trade issues.”
Four Key Principles for Policy Toward North Korea and the U.S.
If we were to establish principles regarding 1) North Korean nuclear weapons, 2) U.S. relations, 3) nuclear policy, and 4) transforming North Korea, we should consider the following:
First, North Korea must never be officially recognized as a nuclear state, regardless of circumstances. However, we must pragmatically treat North Korea as a “virtual nuclear state” when formulating our response strategies.
Second, close cooperation with the United States—both before and after any actions—is essential. Prior coordination with Washington is particularly crucial to prevent “Korea-passing.”
Third, South Korea must seriously consider adopting a “nuke for a nuke” response policy as the North Korean nuclear threat intensifies. While strengthening Washington’s extended deterrence commitment, we should explore all options: redeploying U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula, expanding South Korea’s peaceful nuclear energy rights, or developing our own nuclear deterrent.
Fourth, we must persistently pursue North Korean liberalization. We should continuously explain to North Koreans why Kim Jong Un’s “two hostile states theory” is fundamentally flawed and promote the flow of outside information into North Korea. This includes maintaining offers for dialogue, exchanges, and humanitarian aid, regardless of Pyongyang’s response.
Adapting to a Changing World
The global order is transforming rapidly. Trump is completely upending international norms, actively courting Russian President Vladimir Putin to join his China containment strategy while pursuing maximum economic benefits globally, including from Ukraine. This exemplifies his “America First” approach.
South Korea shouldn’t see Trump’s approach as simply negative or something to fear. We must wisely adapt to changing circumstances. In this era of unlimited national competition where no one will back you up unconditionally, a conceptual shift is vital. Like Trump, South Korea should position itself to participate in the massive post-war reconstruction projects in both Russia and Ukraine after their conflict ends.
The same strategic thinking applies to our diplomacy with the United States, China, and Japan. We shouldn’t hesitate to question established frameworks that have long supported South Korea, such as the NPT regime and traditional foreign policy approaches. We must boldly craft plans A, B, and C based on “Korea First.”
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