Aviation accounted for 2.5% of global carbon emissions in 2023. SAF, made from waste oil and biomass, is key towards reducing those emissions, but is costlier than conventional fuel and only accounted for 0.3% of global jet fuel production, global airlines body IATA said.
The Asia-Pacific region's SAF production capacity is set to reach 3.5-million metric tons per year (77,671 barrels per day) by end-2025, forecasts from Argus Consulting showed, vs 1.24-million tonnes in 2024.
However, the first compulsory use of SAF in Asia will not begin until 2026 when Singapore and Thailand enforce a 1% mandate. These requirements are expected to lift SAF demand from these countries to about 14% of their production capacity by 2026, Reuters calculations based on trade data showed.
Anticipated production capacity does not mean that much SAF will actually be produced given an industry focus on profitability and actual demand.
IATA said 1-million tonnes of SAF was produced globally in 2024, below forecasts of 1.5-million tonnes, and described production as disappointingly slow.
Recent project delays point to a very real risk that SAF penetration may actually begin to fall even as demand grows, said Ellis Taylor of aviation analytics firm Cirium.
South Korea's 1% SAF use will start in 2027, and Japan has a 10% mandate by 2030.
“Demand in Asia is expected to lag behind supply due to the absence of uniform policies and mandates across the region,” said Lamberto Gaggiotti, the head of biofuels firm Apical's green energy business.
VOLUNTARY USE
Outside government mandates, some Asian airlines are voluntarily using SAF to boost their green credentials among customers and as part of industry sustainability commitments.
The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, which counts many Asian flag carriers as members, has a target of 5% SAF usage by 2030.