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Newcastle United defied the odds to win the Carabao Cup and end a 70-year domestic trophy drought this year.
Newcastle beat Liverpool 2-1 in the final at Wembley Stadium on Sunday with goals from Dan Burn and Alexander Isak. It was The Magpies’ first domestic trophy since 1955 and they won it by knocking out each of the Premier League’s current top four clubs.
And a new rule introduced by the EFL this season made it arguably more difficult for clubs outside of European competition - like Newcastle - to progress to the latter stages. The Magpies entered the competition in the second round with clubs in Europe entering in the third round as has happened previously.
But a reform to the Carabao Cup draw saw the competition introduce a ‘seeding mechanism’ which prevented the seven clubs who qualified for Europe in 2024-25 from being drawn against one another in the third round. The rule would have prevented Newcastle from drawing Manchester City in the third round last season had it been in place.
But instead, it gave the seven clubs in Europe a theoretically easier route to the final while the likes of Newcastle saw their chances of a difficult draw increase. Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea and Manchester United were all prevented from drawing one another in the third round.
While Newcastle escaped a difficult third-round draw on paper as they faced AFC Wimbledon at St James’ Park, they later knocked out Chelsea in the last-16, Arsenal in the semi-final and Liverpool in the final. The Magpies also beat Nottingham Forest on penalties in the second round and Brentford in the quarter-final en route to their cup success.
By winning the Carabao Cup, Eddie Howe’s side made a mockery of a rule introduced to protect the interests of the European sides in the competition and make the competition more difficult for those outside of Europe as a result.
Ironically, they’ll be one of the sides to benefit from the rule in next season’s Carabao Cup having confirmed European qualification. They’ll be looking to retain the competition next season.
Up to 11 Premier League clubs could get Carabao Cup bye next season
Up to 11 Premier League clubs could get a bye to the Carabao Cup third round next season if a very specific set of circumstances unfolds.
This season will likely see fifth place get Champions League qualification based on the Premier League’s strong UEFA coefficient. That would see sixth place qualify for the Europa League and potentially seventh should the FA Cup winners finish in the top seven.
There could be as many as seven Premier League clubs in next season’s Champions League. If Aston Villa or Arsenal win the Champions League and finish outside of the top five, they will qualify for next season’s Champions League as holders.
And if Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur win the Europa League, they would qualify for the Champions League. Both clubs sit in the bottom half in the Premier League and are unlikely to qualify for the Champions League by finishing in the top five.
That would see 10 Premier League teams qualify for Europe next season. The Premier League confirmed that number could increase to 11 if the following occurs this season: “Liverpool, Arsenal, Forest, Man City and Newcastle United finish as the top five teams- AND Aston Villa win the Champions League and finish eighth to 10th- AND Man Utd or Spurs win the Europa League and finish in the top 10- AND Chelsea win the Conference League and finish eighth to 10th.
“This would mean seven Champions League spots, three in the Europa League, and one place in the Conference League.”
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