China’s Gray Zone Tactics: Can Taiwan Restore the Median Line?
Source：Coast Guard Administration
Chinese vessels frequently damage Taiwan’s undersea cables, and PLA aircraft circle the island. The U.S. military warns that China’s coast guard crossing the median line is a rehearsal for unification by force. Yet, Taiwan’s lax defenses have allowed Chinese nationals to sail a boat straight to the island’s west coast undetected. Why is Taiwan so unprepared?
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China’s Gray Zone Tactics: Can Taiwan Restore the Median Line?
CommonWealth Magazine
前往中文版 調整字體尺寸
On June 8, 2024, 60-year-old Ruan Fangyong boarded a speedboat in Fujian Province on China’s southern coast and embarked on a trip across the Taiwan Strait. He was arrested near the mouth of the Danshui River in northwestern Taiwan the following day after colliding with a ferry. Ruan claimed he was escaping political persecution in China and was seeking freedom. He also claimed that he once served as a commander on a Chinese navy vessel.
President Lai Ching-te inspects the armed forces. (Source: Office of the President Republic of China(Taiwan))
Ruan was eventually sentenced to an eight-month prison term for illegally entering Taiwan. What has left many dumbfounded is the fact that he was able to sail straight to the Danshui River without being detected by Taiwan’s Navy or Coast Guard. This incident, occurring amid frequent PLA harassment, exposes weaknesses in Taiwan’s defense preparedness.
U.S. Warning: Not an Exercise but a Rehearsal for Unification by Force
Admiral Philip Davidson, former commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, once warned that China might attack Taiwan in 2027. U.S. intelligence agencies have also revealed that Chinese President Xi Jinping has instructed the Chinese military to build up the relevant capability.
Chinese President Xi Jinping's strategy towards Taiwan is to defeat the enemy without fighting and to consume Taiwan's military strength and public morale through gray harassment. (Source: AFP)
On the other hand, Admiral Samuel Paparo, incumbent Commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, has said that 2027 is not necessarily a definitive deadline for China to invade Taiwan. However, he also warned that Chinese maneuvers near Taiwan are “not exercises; they are rehearsals” for forced reunification.
Taiwan’s Minister of National Defense, Wellington Koo, acknowledged that the Chinese military has been accelerating its transition “from exercise to maneuver, from maneuver to war.”
In addition to dealing with Chinese coast guard ships, Taiwanese Coast Guard must also inspect for damage to submarine cables. In February, a foreign vessel was suspected of towing and cutting the third submarine cable between Taiwan and Penghu, and the Coast Guard detained the ship and returned it to Hong Kong for investigation. (Source: Coast Guard Administration)
He noted that Xi has never given up on his vision of a “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” where Taiwan is the final piece of the puzzle in realizing the “Chinese dream.” Given the frequent incursions by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into the territorial waters of Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines, the situation is no longer solely a Taiwan issue but a regional security concern.
CommonWealth Magazine has compiled flight path statistics of Chinese military aircraft published by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense and Japan’s Ministry of Defense over the past three years. The data reveals that the current situation extends beyond a “Taiwan issue.”
Aside from military activity around Taiwan, Chinese naval forces have expanded beyond the first island chain (Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines), moving closer to the second island chain, where U.S. military bases are located on Guam. The recent U.S.-Japan summit saw President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reaffirm their concern over Taiwan’s security, underscoring its importance for regional stability.
Gray Zone Tactics: China’s Strategy of Erosion
So-called gray zone activities refer to tactics between war and peace. These operations remain below the threshold of conventional war but employ incremental incursions to weaken the opponent’s defenses, making it harder for Taiwan to respond, while steadily undermining its sovereignty.
China has mastered these gray zone tactics.
Gray Zone Tactics in the Sky: Chinese Aircraft Crossing the Median Line, Draining Taiwan’s Military Resources
Since former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022, gray zone confrontations in the Taiwan Strait have escalated dramatically.
Research by the RAND Corporation shows that over the past decade, China has used at least 80 types of gray zone operations against Taiwan, Japan, India, and the Philippines, with Taiwan as the primary target. In just the past three years, Beijing has conducted four large-scale military drills around Taiwan, each growing in scale and making it clear that a blockade scenario is being rehearsed.
Chinese fighter jets now routinely cross the median line in the Taiwan Strait. PLA aircraft are not only active in Taiwan’s southwestern airspace but also conduct operations east of the island, aimed at countering potential U.S. military reinforcements while harassing and surrounding Taiwan in multiple locations.
“I don’t think that the PLA has the capability to launch a full-scale amphibious invasion, but gray zone harassment continues to escalate,” noted Koo.
Gray Zone Warfare at Sea: Chinese Coast Guard Provocations
In February last year, a Chinese craft entered restricted waters off Kinmen. When Taiwan’s Coast Guard pursued it, the boat capsized, resulting in two deaths. Beijing subsequently denied the legitimacy of Kinmen’s restricted waters and announced that its coast guard would conduct “regular patrols” there.
In February, US Indo-Pacific Commander Paparo publicly warned that the PLA's actions around Taiwan were not exercises but rehearsals for a military invasion of Taiwan. (Source: U.S. Indo-Pacific Command)
Following this incident, Chinese Coast Guard vessels began making two to four monthly incursions into Taiwan’s waters, often circling the southern part of Kinmen. This seemingly low-level conflict is, in reality, a calculated provocation. More concerning is that during last year’s PLA exercise “Joint Sword-2024B,” China’s 12,000-ton patrol vessel 2901 entered Kinmen waters, indicating that China’s Coast Guard has effectively become a “second navy.”
Since 2018, Beijing has integrated the Coast Guard into its armed police system, placing it under the direct command of the Central Military Commission. The Coast Guard’s equipment now resembles that of the Navy. China has at least 150 Coast Guard vessels over 1,000 tons, while Taiwan has only 17, with significantly weaker firepower.
A senior Taiwanese national security official warned that Taiwan relies on its Coast Guard for defense while China uses law enforcement actions to expand its jurisdiction.
Gray Zone Attacks on Information Networks: Undersea Cable Sabotage Hard to Control
Over the past five years, there have been 36 incidents of undersea cable damage around Taiwan. This year alone, Chunghwa Telecom has reported three cases of cable disruption, with two suspected of being caused by Chinese vessels.
While the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea does not explicitly classify undersea cable sabotage as a hostile act, many countries consider it a form of “quasi-warfare.”
Kenny Huang, CEO of Taiwan Network Information Center (TWNIC), noted that severing communication lines can cripple command systems, effectively serving as a prelude to war. Many governments have prioritized cable security, but Taiwan has yet to formulate a comprehensive counter-strategy.
The Escalating Threat of “Salami Tactics”: Taiwan Must Wake Up
In the past Spring Break, naval exercises strengthened combat readiness. (Photo: Pei-Yin Hsieh)
China’s top strategy remains achieving its goals without direct warfare, and gray zone harassment is one of its key instruments. Through relentless “salami slicing” tactics, Beijing aims to erode Taiwan’s vigilance as people get used to the constant intimidation. Eventually, Taiwan risks losing its defensive edge.
While the international community aims to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and uphold freedom of navigation, Taiwan itself lacks a coherent national security strategy. Furthermore, there is no domestic consensus on how to counter gray zone tactics.
This is Taiwan’s most pressing security challenge, and addressing it must become an urgent national priority.
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Translated by Susanne Ganz
Uploaded by Ian Huang
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Keywords：
NationalSecurity
CrossStrait
TaiwanStrait
CCP
CoastGuard
MilitaryDrill
UnderseaCable
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