With the relegation positions more than likely settled for the 2024/25 season and with the title picture seemingly having been over for a few weeks, eyes have been drawn to the centre of the Premier League table and the battle for Champions League qualification.
It’s not impossible that there are stories from elsewhere, but are Ipswich or Leicester really likely to outscore Wolves by 10 points or are Liverpool going to lose four times as many games as they’ve lost already in their remaining nine matches? You could say that there is very little jeopardy in both the title race and the fight for survival, so to hunt for ‘the story’ you have to look at positions fourth to, arguably, 10th.
And who do you find in the thick of the jeopardy this season, absolutely caked in the stuff? Manchester City.
You can deny it all you want, but secretly, you miss City in the title race. You can call the years that Pep Guardiola’s side has lifted the title as boring as you like, but no other champion has been pushed to the final day since Chelsea won the league in 2010.
Had Son Heung-min scored in the penultimate game of last season, Arsenal would probably have won the title. Had Aston Villa hung on to their shock 2-0 lead at the Etihad in 2022, Liverpool would probably have won the title. Had Liverpool found a way past Everton in possibly the highest-quality title race ever in 2018, the trophy would probably have been at Anfield that season.
You’re bored with the outcome, but not the race. During the three seasons when Pep Guardiola hasn’t won the Premier League title, the top flight has seen one of the biggest processions to the crown in its history, and two seasons where the engravers could have safely started work on the trophy in the springtime. Liverpool were ‘champions elect’ from about October in 2019/20, while fans of Chelsea in 2016/17 and Liverpool this season could safely sing “we’re gonna win the league” with a few months to spare.
This is what happens when City check out of the title race early.
City have had the luxury of a procession twice. The remarkable 2017/18 ‘Centurions’ team could have won the title earlier than any other had they beaten Manchester United in the 32nd game, but they decided it was more fun to lose the derby despite being 2-0 up at half time at home. Then, in lockdown, there was the behind-closed-doors-weirdness of the 2020/21 title, when they somehow won the league despite being ninth after 13 games and not going top until the end of January.
Every other Manchester City title of the modern era has needed a result on the final day of the season; tell me there was no jeopardy in those seasons when QPR were 2-1 up in stoppage time in 2012 or when Aston Villa went 2-0 up in the 69th minute in 2022.
Sometimes it came in the build-up to the final day; we’ve already mentioned the 86th-minute Son chance in 2024, but there are others.
In 2022, we all remember that Aston Villa were leading 2-0 at the Etihad thanks to Matty Cash and Philippe Coutinho but City had to pull off another rescue job at West Ham the week before. Needing four points from their final two games, they found themselves 2-0 down at half time and on the ropes…Jack Grealish’s strike and an own goal from Vladimir Coufal spared the blushes, turning that deficit into a 2-2 draw.
Can ‘boring’ really describe a scenario where the team that needs to win goes 2-0 down in back-to-back games at the end of the season?
Would each of those seasons, specifically in the Guardiola era, have been more interesting had one moment been different? Had Son scored and Arsenal won the league, had West Ham or Aston Villa hung on, or had Aguero’s shot been successfully cleared off the line (or had Kompany’s wonder-strike flown over like most expected a shot from a centre-back would), would any of 2024, 2022 or 2019 have been a more entertaining season?
The answer, of course, is no – but because people didn’t like the same team winning the title, they’ve convinced themselves the answer is yes.
Just look at the in-between years. Fans of the clubs in question won’t care (and shouldn’t care), but if the problem is a lack of jeopardy, the same has to apply this season – and to Liverpool’s 2020 title, Chelsea’s 2017 and 2015 titles, even Manchester United’s 2013 title. Leicester, in 2015, get a pass because, although they won the league early, all of their fans were emotional wrecks because of the unprecedented nature of what was happening. And everyone else was marvelling at the weirdness of it.
So, now, in the hunt for 2025’s jeopardy, you’ve all come crawling back to Manchester City.
It looks like Nottingham Forest are going to have enough to get over the Champions League qualification line, but below them the final one (or more likely two) places is going to go to one (or more likely two) of the next seven teams. You’d probably consider Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Fulham as outsiders, purely because of the sheer number of teams ahead of them, but with everyone still playing each other, there’ll be plenty of twists in this battle for the Top Four/Five.
Right there is the Manchester City paradox. People think there is no jeopardy when City are involved, but as soon as they’re gone the race is a snoozefest. Admit it…you miss them, really.
David Mooney is the host of the excellent Blue Moon podcast – subscribe here…