The Philadelphia 76ers entered the 2024-25 NBA season with championship aspirations. They're all but guaranteed to finish it in the draft lottery, where they'll be praying to the gods of ping-pong balls on May 12.
The Sixers will send their first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder if it falls outside of the top six. They're likely to have anywhere between a 31.9% chance and a 63.9% chance of keeping the pick, depending on whether they finish with the league's fifth-, sixth- or seventh-worst record.
Regardless of how the lottery plays out, the Sixers' long-term outlook is otherwise murky for the time being. Star center Joel Embiid played only 19 games before getting shut down in late February due to his ongoing recovery from a left meniscus injury that he suffered last January. He still has no clear go-forward plan, according to ESPN's Tim Bontemps, although FanDuel TV's Chandler Parsons recently said he's considering traveling to Germany for the platelet-rich plasma treatment that Kobe Bryant once received.
Paul George, the Sixers’ star free-agent signee this past offseason, had a similarly turbulent experience during his debut season in Philadelphia. The 34-year-old suffered a pair of knee hyperextensions early in the year, injured his left pinkie finger in January and has been battling groin soreness as well. On Monday, the Sixers announced that George recently received injections in both his left adductor muscle and left knee, so his season is now over after 41 games.
Fellow star guard Tyrese Maxey has also had his fair share of injuries this year. An early-season hamstring injury sidelined him for six games, and he’s missed the Sixers’ past eight games with a finger injury that caused him to try shooting with three fingers. However, head coach Nick Nurse recently said that he's likely to return before the end of the season.
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With nearly 96% of their payroll currently sidelined, the Sixers are flying dead-stick for the rest of this season. But between Maxey, rookie guard Jared McCain and restricted-free-agent-to-be Quentin Grimes, their backcourt is their biggest reason for hope moving forward.
Electric Backcourt
Maxey has already cemented himself as one of the NBA's most promising young guards. The 24-year-old earned his first All-Star nod and won the league's Most Improved Player award last season, and he built on that by averaging a career-high 26.3 points per game this season. His efficiency has cratered as he's moved into more of a leading role, although that's hardly a surprise with Embiid and George's availability so spotty this season.
In an ideal world, Maxey would have Embiid and George alongside him to draw away defensive attention and open up the floor. His speed makes him nearly unguardable in the open court, but he would benefit from having them available in half-court settings. It's unclear whether Maxey can be the leading man on a championship-caliber team, but the Sixers might have to begin exploring that sooner than later.
The good news is that no matter what they get out of Embiid and George moving forward, Maxey will have plenty of help in the backcourt.
The silver lining of George and Embiid's early-season injury issues is that McCain got to play a larger-than-expected role. He scored 20-plus points in seven straight games at one point in November, making him only the fourth Sixers rookie since the NBA-ABA merger to accomplish that feat. The Duke product was likely on a glide path to winning the Rookie of the Year award before he suffered a season-ending meniscus tear in mid-December.
During his post-trade deadline press conference, team president Daryl Morey said he felt the Sixers were "extremely well set up, even more next year, because we're getting a possible Rookie of the Year-level player coming back next season." He said the pairing of McCain and Maxey was "definitely viable" even though they're both on the smaller side, although he conceded "that kind of a structure creates defensive challenges."
That's one of the reasons why the Sixers acquired Grimes ahead of the trade deadline.
"We wanted one of our guards to take the primary guard matchup [on defense]," Morey said. "We felt like Quentin could do that both with Jared and Tyrese going forward."
Grimes might have arrived in Philadelphia as a three-and-D plug-in player, but he's spent the past month proving he could be even more than that. During his first 16 games with the Sixers, he averaged 19.9 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.5 threes and 1.5 steals per game while shooting 50.4% overall and 37.0% from deep.
Grimes had his finest game yet in Monday's 144-137 overtime loss to the Houston Rockets. He finished with 46 points on 15-of-27 shooting (including 8-of-14 from deep), a career-high 13 rebounds, four assists, two steals and a block in 44 minutes. At this point, the question heading into the offseason isn't whether the Sixers should try to re-sign him; it's how much will it cost for them to do so?
A New Path Forward?
Maxey signed a five-year max contract extension this past summer, so he's already under contract through 2028-29. McCain is in the first year of his rookie-scale deal, so he's signed through 2027-28 and won't become extension-eligible until the 2027 offseason. Those two are already locked up long-term.
The same can't be said for Grimes, who'll be a restricted free agent this summer. The Sixers will have the right to match any offer sheet he signs with another team, but his price tag might be going up with each passing game.
The Brooklyn Nets are the only team projected to have more than $30 million in cap space this offseason, so they might be the biggest threat to steal Grimes away from the Sixers. Nets general manager Sean Marks has a long history of throwing bloated offer sheets at restricted free agents, and the added benefit of weakening a divisional rival could further incentivize him to do so with Grimes.
Even if the Sixers are able to retain Grimes, it could cost them a shot at re-signing Guerschon Yabusele. Their proximity to the first and second apron will determine whether they have access to the $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception in free agency, the $5.7 million taxpayer mid-level exception or no MLE whatsoever.
Heading into the offseason, retaining Grimes figures to be one of the Sixers' highest organizational priorities (if not the top one). If that costs them a shot at retaining Yabusele and/or Kelly Oubre Jr. as well, so be it. Although it can be dangerous to read into late-season surges in production—many teams have been tricked by Mickey Mouse March runs in the past—Grimes doing so in an expanded role bodes well moving forward.
With Embiid and George's outlook up in the air, the Sixers could give themselves a new direction by re-signing Grimes to pair with Maxey and McCain long-term. Pivoting to become a backcourt-oriented team might help Embiid and George regain their form in lesser roles, as they could focus more on defense and less on shouldering such a heavy offensive load.
With so much else up in the air at the moment, that might be the Sixers' best path forward.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats viaNBA.com,PBPStats,Cleaning the Glass orBasketball Reference. All salary information viaSpotrac and salary-cap information viaRealGM. All odds viaFanDuel Sportsbook.
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