It would take a Fulham collapse, Aston Villa Champions League triumph and an Herculean effort through April - but there is a very small chance Everton could make it into Europe next year
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David Moyes during the Premier League match between Wolverhampton Wanderers FC and Everton FC at Molineux. Photo by Gareth Copley/Getty Images
David Moyes during the Premier League match between Wolverhampton Wanderers FC and Everton FC at Molineux. Photo by Gareth Copley/Getty Images
If anyone believes Everton's season is over, take a deep breath - and do not worry, this is not a claim the Blues will end up being dragged into a relegation battle.
Unlikely though it may be, there is still a route to Europe available to David Moyes’ team. It would take an odds-defying series of events for it to unfold - including English domination of the European competitions - but a spot in next season’s Europa Conference League could fall to the team that finishes 11th in the Premier League.
Reaching the top of the bottom half would be a tough ask for Everton. Brentford, currently in that position, are seven points clear with nine games left. It would be well within Everton’s grasp had the chances to turn the last four draws into wins been taken - including Beto’s three missed one on ones at Brentford last month.
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A tough run of fixtures lies ahead in April but Moyes’ Blues have not baulked at a challenge yet, and with injured stars returning to add new depth to his side, do not rule out the potential for some important wins. There are also the home visits of Ipswich Town and Southampton, who both look destined for the drop, to offer hopes of further victories.
So, while a lot would need to go right, stranger things have happened.
Should Everton finish 11th, this is what would need to happen for next season to start with a flurry in Europe:
Liverpool, Arsenal, Nottingham Forest and Manchester City qualify for Champions League as the top four (the first three have a healthy gap to the chasing pack, with City just one point away from making this part of the equation a reality)
Newcastle finish fifth and gain the extra Champions League spot for English clubs' performances in Europe this season (Newcastle are currently sixth, one point off fifth with a game in hand)
Brighton qualify for the Europa League by finishing sixth (currently seventh, separated from Newcastle above them by goal difference alone)
Bournemouth finish seventh and qualify for the Europa League by winning the FA Cup (currently 10th, three points off seventh)
Chelsea finish eighth and qualify for the Europa League by winning the Conference League (a spanner in the works as they are fourth, but they are only four clear of Fulham in eighth and are heavy favourites to win the Conference League)
Aston Villa finish ninth but qualify for the Champions League by winning that (Villa are currently ninth and face Paris Saint Germain in the quarter-finals)
Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur finish 10th but qualify for the Champions League by winning the Europa League (both are some way off 10th, with United facing a seven point gap to that position)
If all of that were to happen then the Conference League spot that has been clinched by Newcastle for their Carabao Cup win over Liverpool could not go to any of the top 10 and would be given to the team in 11th. In reality it would also require Everton to overhaul Fulham, currently 11 points clear, but they do at least face them before the end of the campaign. The dream is, therefore, highly unlikely but just about alive!