Hope was never higher than when Joel Embiid stepped back. It was Jan. 28, 2023. Denver Nuggets at Philadelphia 76ers. ESPN. Prime time. Denver’s Nikola Jokic was the reigning MVP. Embiid had come second. Here they were, head to head, narratives afire, the whole hooping world watching.
With 30 seconds to go, Philly up five, Embiid was guarded by Jokic at the top of the arc. Embiid hits Jokic with a jab-step, between-the-leg crossover before crossing the ball back to his left hand, jab-stepping with his right foot again, and stepping back into a three-point attempt. Bucket.
Philly went up eight. Embiid had 47. The Philadelphia crowd went crazy. Embiid dethroned the best player in the world. Philadelphia was a contender. There was genuine hope.
Later that season, after leading his Sixers to the third seed, Embiid would be awarded the NBA MVP trophy. But, as is the big red cross on his resume, Embiid would fail to win two rounds in the playoffs, bowing out to the Boston Celtics in seven games.
The next season, Embiid got off to a historically awesome start, running away with the MVP trophy. But, after 34 regular season games, as is the second big red cross on his resume, he suffered an injury that forced him out of the team’s next 29 games. He put up a valiant effort in a physical first-round playoff series against the Knicks but faltered. In that series, he looked not quite broken, but ailing.
This season, more than two years after that famous step-back three, Embiid has played in just 19 games. His Sixers are 23-45 and actively tanking. He looked horrible the last time we saw him.
In the games he did play, his usage rate was 34.2%. Such reliance has been warranted in the past, but this season, it’s hard to make an argument for it.
Of the 53 players with a usage rate higher than 25%, Embiid is dead last in offensive rating (104.0), bottom five in TS% (48.1%), and bottom 10 in net rating (-5.5). Those aren’t MVP numbers. Not even close. The hope is diminished. All but gone.
Therefore, any chance of a championship season in the City Of Brotherly Love won’t come from a dominant Embiid season. He doesn’t have it in him, or his body won’t let him. But, and bear with me here, a ring isn’t completely out of the question.
Despite the record, this roster is talented. Tyrese Maxey and Paul George are bona fide All-Stars (though George is aging). Jared McCain was the ROTY frontrunner before suffering a season-ending injury. Guerschon Yabusele, Justin Edwards and Quentin Grimes have been fantastic pickups.
That squad shouldn’t need a 47-point dropping, step-back-swishing, MVP-winning Embiid for success. They still need his presence. But a more peripheral one. A less powerful, more clinical version of their behemoth. He can still be a star the offense orbits around, but he’s got to let it orbit more than he has.
Embiid’s next great step back must be the metaphorical one that many all-time greats before him have done.
Legends like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Shaquille O’Neal and Bill Walton all extended their careers and lengthened their list of accomplishments by ceding to the greater good of the roster, letting up-and-comers flourish, and giving in to a more democratic game plan.
They all won Finals MVPs as the guy, but what matters for this discussion is the championships they won where they were not the No. 1 guy.
It’s hard to accurately measure how much impact one player has on their team. You can’t quantify Steph Curry’s gravity on offense, the shots oppositions of Wembanyama don’t take due to his presence, or how tiring it is on a defense to guard Giannis Antetokoumpo for 48 minutes.
But usage rate allows us to see how many offensive possessions a player finishes for their team. It’s calculated by taking the player’s field goal attempts, possession-ending free throw attempts, and turnovers, divided by their total possessions. It’s not perfect as it doesn’t account for assists or even potential assists, which is a big part of being a team’s primary playmaker. But it’s the best we’ve got at seeing how much of an offensive load a player burdens.
Embiid is second all-time in usage rate. His 35.2% is just 0.3 percentage points from the No. 1 guy (Luka Doncic). He’s never had a season with a usage rate below 32.9% i.e. in every season he’s played, he’s finished at least a third of his team’s possessions. Asking him to lower his role may seem crazy. He, and the team, have found extended periods of success in having him finish possessions. But, not real success, and it’s taken an immense toll on his body.
To help us gauge what a successful but lesser Embiid could be, let’s look at the usage rate of Shaq, Kareem and Walton in the playoffs when they were the guy, and compare it to the playoffs where they weren’t.
In Shaq’s three Championship and Finals MVP playoff runs with the Lakers, his average usage rate was 31.6%. In his one championship playoff run with the Miami Heat, it was 28.5% and dropped to 21.1% in the Finals series.
Kareem’s usage rate for his 1971 Finals MVP playoff run with the Milwaukee Bucks isn’t available, but it is for every other ring he won, all with the Lakers. The earliest of those being the 1980 Playoffs, with a rookie Magic Johnson (who would end up winning Finals MVP). For those playoffs, the 32-year-old Kareem had a usage rate of 28.5%.
His average usage rate in his four other championship playoff runs with the Lakers was 24.2%, including a Finals MVP run in 1985 with a usage rate of 25.2% (at 37 years old!).
Walton’s usage rate for his Finals MVP season with Portland also isn’t available. But, in his 1977-78 regular season, when he won MVP, he had a usage rate of 24.5% (because of injuries, he would only play in two playoff games that season). In his championship run as a sixth man for the Celtics in 1986, his playoff usage rate was 17.8%.
Overall, that’s about a 20% drop in usage rate from those players ‘peak’ seasons to championship seasons as not the best guy.
So, if we take Embiid’s career usage rate and drop it by that (somewhat arbitrary) 20%, we get 28.2%. Here are the players with a usage rate between 29 and 28 this season: Jalen Brunson, James Harden, Trae Young, Jaylen Brown, Stephen Curry, Nikola Jokic, Kevin Durant, Bones Hyland, Devin Booker, Kawhi Leonard, Jordan Poole. Those are All-Star level players… and Bones Hyland.
Brunson, Harden, Young, Curry and Jokic all dictate the offenses for their team. Aside from Brunson’s New York Knicks, you could argue that Embiid has the best surrounding roster of those five players. What they do better than Embiid is let their teammates cook. They get the ‘others’ going for the first three quarters. Then, they’re selfish.
All five players have a usage rate in the clutch well over 30% (Harden’s 34.8% is the lowest). All but one of them are in the top 15 clutch scorers (Harden is not). This is the recipe for Embiid. Ease off as the game sets shape. Then, bend it to your will. Use that all-time dominant scoring ability, that stepback three-swishing, 47-point scoring, MVP ability, when the team needs it most.
It’s how the greats kept the hope alive, and it’s the only way it can happen for Embiid.