The industrial hurdles that will need to be overcome are significant enough to suggest that the Europeans will only achieve a fraction of that demand by 2035. But this is not certain.
The Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) is apparently proceeding apace, as Italian defense firm Leonardo estimates that they will have an order for around 350 units of the proposed sixth-generation warplane by 2035. The GCAP is a tri-national attempt by the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan to affordably produce a sixth-generation warplane.
While many analysts have understandably questioned the claims of Leonardo, the fact that Europe is supposedly “waking up” to the need for increased defense spending might just mean that the GCAP proceeds as the Europeans and Japanese intend.
Some Specs on the Hypothetical GCAP Plane
The aircraft will feature sixth-generation hallmarks: enhanced stealth to evade advanced radar, artificial intelligence-driven decision-making, and a “combat cloud” for real-time data-sharing.
Britain’s BAE Systems, the aforementioned Leonardo, and Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries lead the airframe design, while Rolls-Royce, IHI Corporation, and Leonardo’s electronics division tackle propulsion and avionics.
The plane itself will have a delta-wing configuration, with potentially over 30,000 pounds of fuel capacity. Thus, the GCAP plane could conduct long-range missions without compromising its stealth through external fuel tanks. In fact, the GCAP bird is believed to prioritize endurance over supercruise, which enhances stealth against infrared detection.
Critics argue that a lack of supercruise could limit the plane’s interception capabilities. On the other hand, proponents argue that modern air combat favors standoff weapons and sensor superiority, making real “dogfights” largely redundant. The GCAP warplane will supposedly utilize multiple breakthrough technologies, including advanced radar systems and high-power microwave capabilities that will conduct devastating electronic warfare (EW) techniques against enemy systems.
In two years, a demonstrator aircraft is expected to fly.
The Sixth-Gen Plane Is a Serious Undertaking
This indicates the seriousness with which the Europeans and Japanese are taking the need for a next-generation warplane. In fact, GCAP is as much an industrial endeavor as it is a military one. The program is meant to ensure that the countries involved can sustain a skilled workforce and sovereign capability. The program is projected to create high-value jobs for decades in Britain, Italy, and Japan.
Economically, GCAP intends to leverage exports to offset its nearly $130 billion price tag. Yet affordability remains a concern. The cost of the experimental next-generation warplane system has led some to advocate merging the platform with the ongoing Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System (FCAS). Meanwhile, the GCAP consortium has expressed a willingness to include even Middle East powers, notably the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, in the ongoing venture. All these moves would drastically offset costs and likely expedite the development of the next-generation warplane.
Will the GCAP Ever Fly?
While the American—and even the Chinese—proposed sixth-generation warplanes have faced struggles in development, the co-development of sixth-generation planes in Europe has the best chance of making a breakthrough.
This is because the biggest hindrance to such a complex program is the cost. The greater the pool of resources and the more burden-sharing that occurs in such a development program, the greater the chance that Europe will achieve the creation of an indigenous sixth-generation warplane. Still, the GCAP and FCAS should be combined to enhance the chances of getting these planes off-the-ground by 2035.
In light of the recent breakdown in transatlantic relations, and with the resurgence of Russia as a significant threat to Europe, the Europeans and British are committed to enhancing their defense spending at levels not seen since before the Second World War. The only problem is that the industrial capacity to meet the demands of the current moment is otherwise lacking in Europe.
That is why many are skeptical of Leonardo’s claims of having 350 GCAP planes by 2035. The industrial hurdles that will need to be overcome are significant enough to suggest that the Europeans will only achieve a fraction of that demand by 2035—assuming (almost certainly incorrectly) there are no delays in the development of these planes.
But if the Europeans combined the GCAP with the FCAS efforts and looked to bring in more advanced nations to their development program, they just might succeed in developing a sixth-generation warplane—while the Americans likely will not.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a contributor at Popular Mechanics, who consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter@WeTheBrandon.
Image: Shutterstock / Serge Goujon.