Four teams will be constructed and ultimately assessed and ranked by our ruthlessly mustachioed but militantly objective supercomputer.
So here’s the imaginary deal.
We woke up this morning, and the NBA was devoid of stars. Had you not noticed? That’s because – well – how would you notice the disappearance of people you cannot fathom? You aren’t Stephen Hawking, or even “Interstellar” Matthew McConaughey. Don’t worry, those players you don’t know about didn’t suffer. They just don’t exist.
They’re The Beatles in the film “Yesterday.” They’re the disappearing limbs of Marty McFly’s siblings in those “Back to the Future” photographs. Erased (dramatic Doc Brown pause) from existence.
To fill the vacuum of this oh-so swishless, Steph Curry-less world, we have enlisted four of our best, brightest and boldest to construct a team that can win the NBA title – or at least suck the least in their pursuit.
The NBA, perhaps more than any other sports league, is an association of stars but far from a universe of stars. Which can be great. And it can be awful if you are, say, a Chicago Bulls fan stuck in this post-Jordan purgatory circa 2000-25 that has stretched from your late-high school years to mid-life, transitioning from full of hope and entitlement to insipid realism around the time of Derrick Rose’s second knee surgery.
Welcome to our first of hopefully many nerdy hypotheticals. In this one, four teams will be constructed and ultimately assessed and ranked by our ruthlessly mustachioed but militantly objective supercomputer.
The rules: This is not a draft. We want the playing field to be as even as a non-electoral college general election. There was a (slim) chance of the exact same players being selected by the esteemed general managers (reassurance: they picked different teams, otherwise we would have started over with a draft). There will be overlap, but there will be a measurable winner, measurable mediocrity and a measurable failure to pique your unmeasurable interest.
15 players, must have at least four guards, five forwards and three centers.
Player can’t have made All-NBA ever.
Cannot have more than three rookie contracts. Of those players, none can have made All-Rookie First Team.
Must be salary cap compliant, under the first apron.
Cannot take a 2025 All-Star.
Cannot take a player ruled out for the season (Note: the exercise was completed before Trey Murphy III was injured and subsequently ruled out for the season).
Consider this a projection for this season only, not future years.
Opta Analyst GMs:
Evan Boyd: Resident data scientist and U.S. sports renaissance man, who has a bass guitar in the background of every Teams call but thankfully never plays it.
Trevor Goldstein: Our fantasy football writer, who happens to also be an NBA guy, and can pick a written fight with the best of them but concedes that argument with the worst of them. He stays up late.
Donnie Kolakowski: Opta Analyst basketball editor, whose angerwell-considered disapproval at the following quote from Bulls executive vice president of basketball operations Arturas Karnisovas started this hypothetical: “There’s different structures that you can try to get to a championship. There’s 2-3 star players and then a lot of role players or you can build it as 9-10 very good players.”
Theo Robertson: Opta Analyst’s latest NBA and college hoops contributor, Cal’s all-time 3-point percentage leader, 2015 NBA ring haver who has worked for humans named Kerr and Popovich, and is too new to Opta Analyst to comfortably poke fun at just yet.
And the Opta Analyst judge: A man-machine combination of our AI basketball wizard Matt Scott and an NBA player model worked on in Manhattan Project-level isolation by one Matt Scott so as to not spill state secrets to any devious hypothetical GMs. None of the GMs got to see the model until after their teams and content were sweated over, second-guessed and submitted.
Faithfully submitted, March 13, 2025: Kevin Chroust, editor
In the most democratic way possible (reverse alphabetical order of GM last name), here we go with each of the four teams followed by the results.
Theo Robertson’s Adequately Starless NBA Franchise
Why did you pick your starting five?
My starting five is a high-level modern-day lineup that blends scoring, defense and versatility. Tyrese Maxey will turn every possession into a track meet and is a capable scorer from everywhere. Derrick White is the glue, balancing the offense while making life miserable for opposing guards. Mikal Bridges is the bridge (yes, really), the two-way wing who connects it all with shooting, defense and adaptability. Bam Adebayo is the do-it-all big, switching onto anyone, making plays and anchoring the defense. Myles Turner protects the rim like it’s a personal mission and spaces the floor to keep defenses honest. This lineup can lock you down, light you up or both – whatever works.
Explain your bench.
The bench is equal parts chaos, consistency and irrational confidence – a second unit built to keep the train rolling (or at least prevent it from derailing in grand fashion). Payton Pritchard and Tyus Jones bring stability, ensuring things don’t dissolve into an AAU game when the starters sit. Cason Wallace is here to hound ball-handlers like the dog he is, while Sam Hauser exists solely to bomb 3s with no conscience. Trey Murphy III, meanwhile, is a do-it-all weapon, stretching the floor, attacking closeouts and forcing opponents to make business decisions at the rim. Jonathan Kuminga is the wildcard – a supreme athlete that could go for 25 on any given night. Nick Richards provides vertical spacing and toughness. Taurean Prince may as well be called Elmer, as he’s the veteran glue guy who somehow always ends up on good teams. This unit won’t just hold the line – it might steal a few games.
THEO-STARLESS Team
Potentially unimportant, but which NBA franchise (real or otherwise) are you putting these players on and why? No credit will be awarded for this section, but the answer will act as a subjective tiebreaker in the incredibly unlikely event of a tie.
This squad would proudly represent the 305, embracing the culture of the Miami Heat. Under the guidance of Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra, our team would be instilled with discipline, toughness and the championship mentality necessary for success. Competing in the Eastern Conference, we would also benefit from a clearer path to the Finals, making our journey to the top even more achievable.
Donnie, why does Theo’s team suck?
Theo’s starting lineup would be a lot more intimidating if Mikal Bridges could hit the broad side of a barn. At the time of submitting this, he was shooting under 30% on 3s since Feb. 1. Without him shooting well, there’s a lot of pressure on White to be the spacer in the starters’ minutes. I also don’t know if there’s enough wing defense here. Bridges is a bit overrated as a primary stopper and the rest of the wing options over 6-foot-4 are uninspiring.
Donnie Kolakowski’s There’s No ‘I’ In This Or Any Team NBA Franchise
Why did you pick your starting five?
I know Maxey might not be the best selection if evaluated by advanced numbers. He’s been asked to do too much in an unstable Philly season and as a result has seen his efficiency drop. But he’s clearly the best straw to stir my offense, and he’d be an even bigger star if the 76ers didn’t have more awful happenings than the family in The Poltergeist. Derrick White’s one of the most versatile guards in the NBA that can play so many roles at a high level. Trey Murphy III would be my first pick if this was a draft. He’s an ascending star who can shoot the lights out and flies under the radar as he tries to fit on a Pelicans team that has struggled to be cohesive. Cam Johnson has size, shoots and defends well enough and Bam Adebayo is an incredibly versatile defender and underrated offensive player.
Explain your bench.
Amen Thompson, Austin Reaves, Toumani Camara and Goga Bitadze round out my rotation. My depth guys are Tyus Jones, Spencer Dinwiddie, Keon Ellis, Guerschon Yabusele, Luke Kornet and Dean Wade.
Thompson has all the talent in the world, size, defends at a high level and keeps getting better. Reaves offers passable shooting and defense with high-volume scoring when needed and improved playmaking this year. Camara is a menace on defense with size and an improved shooter this year. Bitadze is a passable backup center that was affordable. As my lineup gives me the chance to go small for stretches, he’s only playing 8-10 minutes a game.
I filled out my depth with the best players on contracts close to the veteran minimum. There’s a nice mix of shooting and playmaking there.
DONNIE-STARLESS team
Potentially unimportant, but which NBA franchise (real or otherwise) are you putting these players on and why? No credit will be awarded for this section, but the answer will act as a subjective tiebreaker in the incredibly unlikely event of a tie.
I’ll be assuming the franchise of the Los Angeles Lakers. I feel good about my team in a world without stars, but, if the stars ever come back, I want the highest chance of someone calling me out of the blue and offering me Luka Doncic without forcing me to give up all my picks. Maybe lightning will strike twice.
Evan, why does Donnie’s team suck?
While Donnie and I share a few players on our team, I criticize putting almost $70 million into Tyrese Maxey and Bam Adebayo. Those are two top players on teams that are well under .500. Donnie literally is picking players that currently suck!
Trevor Goldstein’s C’mon, Can I Please Just Have Steph? NBA Franchise
Why did you pick your starting five?
With the way the rules were set up, it essentially eliminated every elite offensive player. Because of that, I found it essential to begin my team with the best offensive player available for selection, Tyrese Maxey. As a potential defensive liability, it was essential to pair him in the backcourt with a player who could defend the opposing team’s best players, and luckily, not only was Derrick White available for selection, he has one of the most valuable contracts in the NBA. Trey Murphy III was the other staple of this team, as the No. 2 offensive option in my starting lineup while boasting the cheapest salary of any of my top 10 rotation players. To round out my starting lineup, I wanted a deadeye shooter, and a great defensive big. In Cam Johnson and Isaiah Hartenstein, I accomplished exactly that. My starting lineup is full of an abundance of shooting and with Maxey spearheading the offensive and Hartenstein doing the same for the defense, my starting five is well-rounded, able to score on all types of defensive coverages while at minimum being a borderline top-10 defense.
Explain your bench.
Again, with the knowledge that great offensive is harder to come by, I began filling out my bench with Austin Reaves, who plays every second that Maxey isn’t on the court and is a more than capable ball-handler and initiator of an offense. After that, I went heavy on the defense. Between four of my starters and Reaves, offense would not be an issue for my team. Enter Amen Thompson, a do-it all dynamo, and athletic marvel, Josh Hart, an elite rebounder and potential super small-ball center, and Dyson Daniels, maybe the game’s best point-of-attack defender, and my bench is stocked with defensive talent to come in and support some of my more offensive-minded players. Rounding out my 10-man rotation is Onyeka Okongwu, having an awesome season and a more than acceptable backup big. Keon Ellis is a hard-pressed 11th man but can fill in for any of my bench guys in a heartbeat and my team would lose very little on the defensive end. The backend of my bench, just like a normal team, is filled with guys on rest-of-season contracts, players who are happy to be there. Post is a stretch center shooting over 40% from 3 and Diabate is a legitimately solid defensive player.
trevor-STARLESS team
Potentially unimportant, but which NBA franchise (real or otherwise) are you putting these players on and why? No credit will be awarded for this section, but the answer will act as a subjective tiebreaker in the incredibly unlikely event of a tie.
We’re playing for Kerr. Putting a premium on ball movement and player movement, using Hartenstein as a screening hub for pick and roll and dribble handoff and having players like Maxey, Johnson, Reaves, and Murphy flying around. Oh, and Thompson as a Draymond Green-lite ball handler.
Theo, why does Trevor’s team suck?
I think this roster lacks the offensive firepower needed to compete at the highest level. While Maxey is a dynamic scorer, there isn’t a second high-level shot creator to ease the offensive burden, which could lead to untimely droughts in crucial moments. The absence of an elite playmaker makes generating consistent quality looks difficult, especially in the half-court against elite defenses. Without legitimate scoring from the bigs, this team becomes overly dependent on perimeter shooting, making them vulnerable when shots aren’t falling. To me, this team projects to be a scrappy and competitive regular season team. Without the ability to consistently generate offense in multiple ways, their one-dimensional attack makes them easier to scheme against, ultimately preventing them from truly contending.
Evan Boyd’s As Long As I Beat Trevor Everything Will Be OK (Breathe) NBA Franchise
Why did you pick your starting five?
I wanted to focus on ball movement on offense with length on defense. My starting five is all 6-foot-4 or taller, with four players averaging at least three assists this season. Amen Thompson can facilitate, Derrick White and Cameron Johnson can shoot, and Jarrett Allen can rebound. Trey Murphy III adds a blend of it all. This team likely can win not only in basketball but in volleyball as well.
Explain your bench.
I focused on gathering players that are efficient on both sides of the ball, have some experience, and are affordable. Austin Reaves can facilitate and shoot, while Josh Hart can score, rebound, and assist. In case my starters get injured, I wanted a bench that could easily fill in the gaps. I also wanted big men that could fill in Allen’s role with rebounding and defense, so Myles Turner and Goga Bitadze were easy choices.
EVAN-STARLESS team
Potentially unimportant, but which NBA franchise (real or otherwise) are you putting these players on and why? No credit will be awarded for this section, but the answer will act as a subjective tiebreaker in the incredibly unlikely event of a tie.
Who needs a star to succeed? This collection of NBA players can compete against the best teams. My team should inspire hope with their talent, skills, and, in the words of Coach Norman Dale, their ability to put their effort and concentration into playing to their potential. Thus, to honor Gene Hackman, I am putting my players on the Hickory Huskers.
Trevor, why does Evan’s team suck?
Evan’s team is awful. Just inexplicable roster management. Two main reasons: 1.) He doesn’t have a single All-Star level offensive player. It’s just nearly impossible to score that way. Murphy and Reaves would make fine second options, but the rest are all best as third and fourth options and he will be hard pressed to score when the defense locks in. Plus, I can already see possessions where the defense is clogging the lane off of two complete non-shooters in Jarrett Allen and Amen Thompson. 2.) His team will have awful chemistry. You think Myles Turner will be happy as the eighth man? Dean Wade has played 11 minutes in at least 45 games this season. His team is 40-5 in those games. Payton Pritchard is having such a prolific offensive season that he might finish first or second in Sixth Man of the Year voting. Tari Eason is seventh in minutes per game on the Houston Rockets, Tyus Jones is fourth in minutes per game on the Phoenix Suns – you think those guys will be OK with their extremely limited playing time? It’s hard to have more than 10 or at most, 11, men in a rotation. No doubt that Evan’s 11-15 guys are excellent, but is that really what you want from those spots in a lineup? Players that might only play 10 minutes per game once a week?
The Results
In order to judge whose team would perform best, I created a model of offensive and defensive NBA TRACR based on historical data since 2012. The model used preseason offensive and defensive DRIP ratings for all players who played for each team in each season, along with their minutes played. Once that model was created, I used it to predict TRACR ratings for everyone’s selected teams. Everyone had the option of sending me what their ideal rotations would be for a competitive game with a fully healthy roster. I then adjusted those minutes projections to account for rotations in blowouts (so each team’s 14th/15th guys don’t end up with zero minutes played) and player health based on their availability this season. Once I got their projected TRACR ratings, I assumed league average pace for all teams (perhaps questionable given Coach Dale’s four passes before any shot rule), and projected their average points scored and allowed per game. I then used a formula for Pythagorean expected wins to project each team’s win total.
Theo was probably at a disadvantage as everyone else heavily uses our DRIP ratings in their day to day, and those were the main factors in evaluating each team. Some of his players, like Mikal Bridges, don’t rate as well by our advanced metrics as by conventional wisdom, though his case for why he picked his team is sound. Theo put together a playoff-caliber team – more than a lot of actual NBA GMs can say – as his team projects to have a TRACR rating of 2.44, which worked out to about 47 wins. Theo also seems to have found a smart loophole in the writing prompts. He’s the only GM who put his team in the NBA’s Eastern Conference, so I suppose in a four-team league he’s got an uncontested path to the NBA Finals. While he finished fourth in the regular-season standings, he’s playing for a title.
“Honestly if you would have just asked me which team is the best without looking at DRIP, I would have picked Theo’s team,” Opta Analyst U.S. editor Taylor Bechtold said.
Trevor’s strategy seemed to be to discount his end-of-the-bench guys so he’d have more money for his top players. He has multiple players on end-of-season contracts and four players with negative DRIP ratings. This strategy would work a lot better if he didn’t also have six different players who have missed 20%+ of their teams’ games this season. Despite numerous attempts at cheating, even though he was the one who created the rules, Trevor’s team projects to have a TRACR rating of 5.27, good for 53.65 wins, third among our teams.
Once I told Evan that a basketball team starts five players, not four, he was able to produce a pretty solid team. Maybe that was just a Norman Dale discipline technique. Unfortunately, Evan must not realize that the Hickory Huskers only turned their season around once Jimmy Chitwood joined the team, and unfortunately, he is not eligible for this exercise. Evan’s team projects to have a TRACR rating of 5.31, good for 53.75 wins, narrowly edging Trevor for second place. We almost actually needed that tiebreaker.
But it wasn’t particularly close at the top. In every iteration of these projections, Donnie’s team dominated. He had the novel strategy of picking the best players, playing them the most minutes, and not loading up on guys who can’t stay healthy. His team projects to have a TRACR rating of 6.86, which would currently rank fourth in the NBA and translates to 57 wins and a potential championship contender. Two of the last three teams to win the NBA title did it with 53 regular-season wins. If you trust the data, Donnie put together a potential 57-win team without any stars. Exceptional roster construction.
Faithfully submitted, March 14, 2025: Matt Scott, technical lead of U.S. data science
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