Latest Developments
Putin Calls for Complete Cessation of Military Aid to Ukraine: Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded the “complete cessation” of all foreign military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine during a much-anticipated phone call with President Donald Trump on March 18. In a Kremlin readout of the call that was far more detailed than the version issued by the White House, Putin claimed that an aid cutoff is “a crucial condition for preventing further escalation and working toward a political-diplomatic resolution.” The Russian leader also demurred from committing to a full ceasefire while confirming that he had ordered his military to cease attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for a period of 30 days.
Putin Said to Be ‘Positive’ on Black Sea Security Arrangements: Both the White House and Kremlin readouts suggested that the tone of the 90-minute conversation was friendly and positive. Putin emphasized that he had “responded constructively to Trump’s proposal regarding maritime security in the Black Sea,” adding that Ukraine and Russia would conduct a prisoner exchange on March 19, with each party releasing 175 detainees. Trump and Putin also discussed the situation in the Middle East, with the White House claiming that both leaders had agreed that “Iran should never be in a position to destroy Israel.”
‘Europe Must Be at the Negotiating Table,’ Says Zelensky: The call between Trump and Putin took place as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Finland, having earlier stressed that “Europe must be at the negotiating table, and everything that concerns European security must be decided together with Europe.” According to the White House, negotiations toward a full settlement of the war will “begin immediately in the Middle East.” Additionally, both leaders underlined their commitment to improving bilateral relations, with the White House readout noting that this would include “enormous economic deals and geopolitical stability when peace has been achieved.”
FDD Expert Response
“Trump and Putin agreed to an ‘energy and infrastructure ceasefire.’ Does that mean Ukrainian kindergartens and hospitals are still fair game? I fear it does, and we will know soon enough. Trump will need to apply some serious pressure on Putin if he is to get the Russian president to agree to even the full 30-day ceasefire that Zelensky agreed to. I hope that’s Trump’s next step.” —Clifford D. May, President
“Moscow views negotiations as a tactic to achieve its key objective of subjugating Ukraine. Putin therefore regards any ceasefire as an opportunity to reconfigure his armed forces in order to continue pushing his imperial goals. Yet by referring to the ‘systemic, strategic pressure on our country’ brought about by Western sanctions, he is also acknowledging Russia’s vulnerability, which the United States can use as leverage. And let’s not forget Europe, which has the power to seize nearly $300 billion of frozen Russian assets and send more weapons to Ukraine. This is Europe’s moment to show Russia who is in charge.” —Ivana Stradner, Research Fellow
“The energy ceasefire is a welcome first step toward peace. But Putin continues to set forth maximalist demands both for a ceasefire and for a broader peace agreement while attempting to frame Kyiv and Western support for Ukraine as the obstacles to peace. President Trump has leverage at his disposal, including the possibility of tougher sanctions and increased military support for Ukraine. He will likely have to use it if he wants to secure a good peace deal.” —John Hardie, Russia Program Deputy Director
“President Trump would be wise to look carefully at President Putin’s statements — he will only accept a ceasefire if Ukraine is unable to rearm and reset for a future Russian onslaught. Putin is a stone-cold killer who illegally invaded Ukraine twice in a decade — he is not to be trusted*.” —RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, FDD Senior Fellow and Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Cyber and Technology*
FDD Background and Analysis
“Trump Angry After Russia Bombards Eastern Ukraine,” FDD Flash Brief
“A quick Western win over Putin is there for the taking, if we dare,” by Ivana Stradner
“What the suspension of US aid means for Ukrainian forces,” by John Hardie
“By halting Ukraine aid, Trump courts personal defeat,” by John Hardie and RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery
Issues:
Military and Political Power Russia Ukraine