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With the Gaza ceasefire in tatters, how much worse can things get?

analysis

Benjamin Netanyahu shatters hopes of ceasefire deal resuming as he looks to bring back far-right Ben-Gvir

By Middle East correspondent Eric Tlozek

Topic:Unrest, Conflict and War

18m ago18 minutes agoWed 19 Mar 2025 at 4:00am

A woman carries a boy on her shoulders as she walks past the rubble of destroyed buildings with other following.

Palestinians flee their homes after the Israeli army issues evacuation orders in the northern Gaza Strip. (Reuters: Mahmoud Issa)

Benjamin Netanyahu has shattered hopes of any resumption of a ceasefire.

The first phase of the ceasefire lapsed at the beginning of March, and by resuming fighting in Gaza, Mr Netanyahu has made it extremely difficult for a deal written specifically for Israel to continue.

This ceasefire, with its three phases and vague commitments, was structured by the Biden administration to deal with Israeli concerns about ending the war with Hamas in power.

Hamas accepted the framework in July 2024, but it took six more months and a new administration in Washington to convince — or more likely strongarm — the Netanyahu government to accept.

As soon as it did, cabinet members such as Bezalel Smotrich made it clear Israel did not intend to honour the whole deal, only to relieve the pressure from the incoming Trump administration and the vocal hostage families domestically.

A group of people holding placards

The families of hostages still being held captive in Gaza have demonstrated in Tel Aviv, calling on Benjamin Netanyahu to do more to help their loved ones. (ABC News: Haidarr Jones)

Israel then delayed negotiations on the second phase of the deal multiple times because that would have involved a further withdrawal of troops and commitment to a "sustainable calm".

It also blocked aid items, especially shelter and heavy equipment, and delayed its compliance with the condition that Palestinians in the south of Gaza be allowed to return to their homes in the north.

Israel then offered only to extend the existing phase of the deal in exchange for further hostage releases, a deal that ignored the crucial elements of the ceasefire agreement and which Hamas would never even entertain.

Hamas's keeping of hostages is horrible, illegal and immoral, but they are nevertheless the group's only significant means of exerting pressure on the Israeli government.

The US and Israeli discussion — with shocking seriousness — of forcibly relocating Gazans to east Africa or, most recently, Syria, has added another dimension to Hamas's efforts to progress the ceasefire.

Not to mention that Israel has continued to bomb and shoot Gazans throughout the period of the ceasefire, usually alleging they posed a threat to troops or were acting suspiciously.

Israel's government said it had decided to resume its attacks because Hamas wouldn't release the hostages.

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But in phase two of the deal, Hamas had fully committed to doing that and had been complying with the agreement.

That's why the freed hostages and their families are so horrified — they were within days of seeing the remaining 24 living hostages released from Gaza, had Israel moved ahead with the deal.

The humanitarian consequences of this move are also immense.

A woman in a veil sobs as another woman holds her

Gaza health officials said more than 400 people were killed, mostly women and children, in the latest round of Israeli strikes. (ABC News)

Netanyahu benefits from return to fighting

Israel has been blocking aid from entering Gaza since early March despite the charges Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing at the International Criminal Court being largely based on the alleged denial of food and other essentials to Palestinians in the early months of the war.

The use of "starvation as a tool of warfare" is a key allegation, as is depriving the civilian population of water and medicine.

Three Israeli tanks and four military personnel are positioned near the Israel-Gaza border.

Israeli tanks are positioned near the Israel-Gaza border. (Reuters: Amir Cohen)

It also cut electricity to southern Gaza's main water treatment and sewage plant, reducing the drinking water relied upon by hundreds of thousands of people.

Now, Gazans living in tents and ruined houses are again being bombed, hospitals are dealing with hundreds of casualties without new supplies and the Hamas police and security forces which have stabilised the strip and prevented looting of aid convoys will again be unable to operate.

Many Israelis have noted that the renewed attack on Gaza coincided with a scheduled court appearance of Mr Netanyahu for his long-running corruption trial.

It was subsequently delayed because of the resumed hostilities.

Mr Netanyahu is also moving to sack the head of Israel's domestic security agency, the Shin Bet, which was investigating alleged impropriety by two of his staff, as well as remove the country's attorney-general.

He is also trying to bring back one cabinet minister who resigned in protest at the ceasefire deal, Itamar Ben-Gvir, despite Israel's attorney-general saying his reinstatement could be illegal.

Some in the Israeli media have cynically taken to calling Israel's latest military action "Operation Itamar", referring to the efforts to return him to the coalition, such is the influence of this far-right politician on the current Israeli government.

Aside from Itamar Ben-Gvir and Benjamin Netanyahu, it is hard to see who benefits from a return to fighting.

Palestinians are living in the ruins of Gaza, trapped between the militant group that provoked this destruction and an occupier that wants them to go to Somalia or who knows where.

Israeli reservists are refusing to return to duty in record numbers and there is a growing sense of despair among many Israelis about the political and military situation.

The ceasefire may not have been a "solution", but the alternative of endless fighting must surely leave everyone asking just how much worse things can get.

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Posted18m ago18 minutes agoWed 19 Mar 2025 at 4:00am, updated2m ago2 minutes agoWed 19 Mar 2025 at 4:16am

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