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Putin woos Trump with a partial ceasefire and big geopolitical deal

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The Economist

Mar 19, 2025 10:22 AM IST

Air-raid sirens rang in Kyiv and missiles and drones fell on other cities soon after the two leaders finished their call.

IF DONALD TRUMP hoped that Vladimir Putin would accept his call for an immediate 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine during their telephone call on March 18th, he was disappointed. After more than two hours of talks, Mr Putin agreed only to smaller initial steps to limit the fighting: a halt to attacks on energy infrastructure, and “technical negotiations” to ease navigation in the Black Sea. The two presidents did, however, play up the prospect of a broader geopolitical deal in the future. And Russians will certainly be pleased by their agreement to host hockey matches in each other’s countries—one of Mr Putin’s favourite sports.

Putin (L) and Trump (R) spoke by phone on Tuesday, March 18, 2025, with the White House saying the talks on securing a ceasefire in Moscow's invasion of Ukraine were "going well." (Photo by Alexey NIKOLSKY and NICHOLAS KAMM / various sources / AFP)(AFP) PREMIUM

In a sign of the obstacles facing any ceasefire deal, air-raid sirens rang in Kyiv and missiles and drones fell on other cities soon after the two leaders finished their call. The targets were not immediately known. And even as they were being pushed out of a pocket of Russian territory in Kursk province, Ukrainian forces staged a surprise raid several kilometres into Russia’s Belgorod province. They may be seeking to create a buffer zone and improve their negotiating position. The Kremlin accused Ukraine of trying to “create a negative backdrop” for the talks.

The read-out produced by the Russian side after the call lavished praise on Mr Trump “for his desire to help achieve the noble goal of ending hostilities and human losses”. The Kremlin said there would be an exchange of 175 captured soldiers on each side. On the substance, though, Mr Putin seems to be giving Mr Trump just enough to show progress towards his promise of ending the three-year-old war, while trying to drive a wedge between America and Ukraine and pursuing his broader objective of bringing Ukraine under his control.

In a social-media post, Mr Trump spoke of his “very good and productive” call, and presented the deal as a first step, to be followed by a complete ceasefire and “ultimately, an END to this very horrible War”. The White House said follow-up negotiations would “begin immediately in the Middle East”. But the Kremlin was less forthcoming. For a 30-day ceasefire to be effective, Russia said Ukraine had to halt mobilisation and re-armament, and America had to stop providing it with weapons and intelligence. There was no mention of Russia pausing its recruitment, halting its military production or stopping its lethal imports—arms from Iran and North Korea, and components from China that can be used to make them.

As for a lasting peace, Russia said any agreement should be “comprehensive, sustainable and long-term” and should “eliminate the root causes of the crisis” as well as preserve “Russia’s legitimate interests in the area of security”. That is Kremlin-speak for limiting Ukraine’s sovereignty, enforcing its neutrality and, ideally, pushing NATO out of eastern Europe. Critically, Mr Putin emphasised the idea of “a Ukrainian settlement in a bilateral mode”, seemingly meaning one negotiated by America and Russia over the heads of Ukraine and European countries.

Messrs Trump and Putin looked forward to a wider rapprochement. The White House said the leaders “spoke broadly about the Middle East”, discussed nuclear non-proliferation and “shared the view that Iran should never be in a position to destroy Israel”. They noted the “enormous economic deals” that could come from better relations between America and Russia. The Kremlin said the leaders “touched upon” a similar list of issues (though it did not explicitly mention Iran and Israel), and underlined the two countries’ “special responsibility” for “security and stability in the world”. It too mentioned economic co-operation, specifically on energy.

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said he was waiting to hear the details but seemed inclined to accept the deal. He will not want to be cast again as the party that rejects peace after his shouting match at the White House last month with Mr Trump. That led America to temporarily halt the flow of arms and intelligence to Ukraine, restoring it when the two countries agreed to propose an immediate 30-day ceasefire to Russia.

Mr Zelensky has long favoured halting mutual attacks on energy infrastructure, as Russia has used drones and missiles to systematically destroy Ukraine’s power grid. But recently Ukraine has staged successful counter-strikes with drones against Russian fuel depots and refineries. And last week it deployed a new version of its Neptune cruise missile, originally an anti-shipping weapon, with a range of 1,000km. It appears to have been used to blow up an oil refinery in Tuapse, about 480km from the front lines, on March 14th. For some in Ukraine, the partial ceasefire is thus difficult to accept. “We are knocking out their oil refineries, and—hop—they want to ban us. Meanwhile, they keep creeping forward on the ground,” says one intelligence source.

For all its limitations, the deal is a demonstration of how fast political change can transform a battlefield. Instead of promising to support Ukraine for “as long as it takes”, as Joe Biden had done, Mr Trump’s administration insists that protracted war is immoral, and worries about the risk of nuclear escalation. The president has railed against the war’s cost to American taxpayers, and has refused to grant Ukraine security guarantees to back a peace agreement. He has pursued a deal to jointly exploit Ukraine’s minerals as “payback” for past assistance.

Like Mr Putin, Mr Trump seems to envision a world divided into great powers’ spheres of influence. That has prompted nervous Europeans to scramble to do more to help Ukraine, and to defend themselves. Kristen Michal, Estonia’s prime minister, announced in a social-media post shortly before the American and Russian presidents started their call that Estonia would raise defence spending to 5% of GDP. Britain and France are leading efforts to create a “reassurance” force that would deploy to Ukraine once a lasting ceasefire takes effect.

Poland and the three Baltic states gave notice on March 18th that they would withdraw from the Ottawa convention banning anti-personnel landmines. At the same time Germany’s parliament, the Bundestag, voted to loosen constitutional debt restrictions for defence spending, and to set up a €500bn ($550bn) fund for infrastructure. Mr Putin’s peace-seeking act has not convinced the Europeans. “Russia has not changed its goals and imperialistic ambitions,” Mr Michal wrote in his post. “This is a real threat to both Europe and NATO.”

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