On March 18, 2025, France’s Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced a significant step in bolstering the nation’s military capabilities, revealing plans to order additional Rafale fighter jets for the French Air and Space Force.
French Rafale F5 coming with emphasis on EW and SEAD in 2030
Photo credit: Reddit
The statement, shared via a post on X, came shortly after President Emmanuel Macron addressed troops at the Luxeuil-les-Bains air base, emphasizing the need to accelerate France’s defense buildup in response to enduring threats.
Lecornu underscored that this effort hinges on a clear expression of military necessity, signaling a strategic push to enhance France’s aerial strength amid shifting global dynamics.
Pour faire face aux menaces dans la durée, nos armées doivent accélérer leur montée en puissance.
Cet effort de défense doit se faire sur la base de l’expression concrète d’un besoin militaire.
Pour l’@Armee_de_lair, cela passera notamment par de nouvelles commandes de Rafale,… pic.twitter.com/hsRcuN7y8g
— Sébastien Lecornu (@SebLecornu) March 18, 2025
The announcement marks a concrete move to expand the country’s fleet of advanced warplanes, a decision that aligns with broader discussions about defense spending and European security.
The context for this decision is rooted in France’s ongoing commitment to strengthening its armed forces. During his speech at the air base, Macron confirmed that the government would not only order more Rafale jets but also invest nearly $1.6 billion to modernize the Luxeuil facility.
This upgrade aims to equip squadrons with cutting-edge nuclear missile technology, specifically the next-generation ASN4G hypersonic cruise missile, expected to be operational by 2035. The French leader framed the initiative as a vital component of the nation’s nuclear deterrence strategy, a cornerstone of its defense policy.
Lecornu’s accompanying statement reinforced this urgency, noting that the military must ramp up its capabilities to address prolonged threats, a sentiment that resonates with France’s recent defense budget trends.
France has been steadily increasing its military spending in recent years, a trajectory outlined in its 2024-2030 military programming law, which allocates €413 billion to defense over that period. This represents a significant jump from previous budgets, with annual increases of about $3.3 billion planned through the end of the decade.
The push for more Rafale jets follows a January 2024 order of 42 aircraft worth $5.5 billion, set for delivery between 2027 and 2032. That deal, known as Tranche 5, brought France’s total Rafale orders to 234, reflecting a sustained effort to modernize its air force.
Analysts see the latest announcement as an extension of this strategy, with estimates suggesting the new order could involve around 40 additional jets, though exact numbers remain unspecified. The investment in Luxeuil, coupled with these procurements, underscores France’s intent to maintain a robust and independent military posture.
This national focus dovetails with broader European conversations about defense investment. Just weeks ago, on March 4, the European Commission, led by President Ursula von der Leyen, proposed a €150 billion borrowing plan to fund a massive rearmament effort across the continent.
Von der Leyen described the initiative as a response to a “momentous and dangerous” era, projecting that it could mobilize up to €800 billion if member states boost their defense spending by an average of 1.5% of GDP over four years.
The proposal, which requires approval from EU governments, comes amid heightened security concerns, particularly following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and uncertainties in transatlantic relations.
France’s actions align with this vision, positioning it as a leader in the push for European strategic autonomy—a concept that emphasizes reducing reliance on external powers for security.
Across the Atlantic, the United States has been a central figure in European defense through NATO, but recent developments suggest a potential shift. President Donald Trump, who returned to office in January 2025, has long criticized European nations for leaning too heavily on American military support.
His administration’s decision to briefly pause aid to Ukraine earlier this month, coupled with rhetoric about reducing U.S. commitments abroad, has fueled speculation about a gradual withdrawal of American troops from Europe.
While no formal plans have been confirmed, defense experts note that approximately 80,000 U.S. personnel are currently stationed across the continent, a presence that has underpinned NATO’s framework for decades.
France’s move to bolster its own capabilities, alongside the EU’s rearmament proposal, could signal a recalibration of roles, with European nations preparing to shoulder more of their defense burden.
The Rafale fighter jet, produced by Dassault Aviation, lies at the heart of France’s aerial strategy. As of now, the French Air and Space Force operates 137 Rafales, with the Navy maintaining an additional 41, according to the 2024-2030 military spending plan, which targets a fleet of 178 by the end of this decade and 225 by 2035.
These twin-engine, multirole aircraft are designed for a range of missions, from air supremacy and ground support to nuclear deterrence. The current fleet primarily consists of the F4 standard, introduced in 2023, which enhances connectivity with features like upgraded radar, new air-to-air missiles, and improved self-defense systems.
The January 2024 order will deliver jets in this configuration, with the option to upgrade to the forthcoming F5 standard in the 2030s. This adaptability has made the Rafale a linchpin of France’s military modernization.
The development of the Rafale F5 represents the next frontier in this evolution. Announced as a priority by Lecornu and detailed in recent ministry statements, the F5 variant is slated for completion by 2030. It promises significant advancements, including a more powerful radar, enhanced electronic warfare systems, and the ability to carry the ASN4G hypersonic missile.
Perhaps most notably, the F5 will integrate a stealthy companion drone, building on Dassault’s nEUROn demonstrator program. This “loyal wingman” concept allows the Rafale to operate alongside an unmanned aerial vehicle controlled directly from the cockpit, enhancing its reach and effectiveness in contested environments.
Defense analysts view this as a bridge to the Future Combat Air System [FCAS], a joint project with Germany and Spain aimed at producing a sixth-generation fighter by 2040 or later. The F5’s development reflects France’s ambition to stay ahead of emerging threats while maintaining technological sovereignty.
Beyond its domestic role, the Rafale has gained traction internationally, bolstering France’s position as the world’s second-largest arms exporter behind the United States. To date, Dassault has secured export orders for 261 Rafales across seven countries, including Egypt, India, the United Arab Emirates, and Indonesia.
Greece and Croatia have also purchased secondhand jets from France’s fleet, with 12 each. Indonesia’s $8.1 billion deal for 42 jets in 2022 marked a high point, while India’s pursuit of 26 Rafale-M variants for its navy, expected to finalize soon, highlights the aircraft’s appeal for carrier operations.
The United Arab Emirates, with an order of 80 F4-standard jets in 2021 valued at over $17 billion, is reportedly in talks to co-finance the F5’s development, potentially expanding its fleet to 100. This “Rafale Club” initiative, floated by Lecornu in 2023, aims to share costs while preserving France’s control over critical components, a model that could attract further partners.
The international dimension underscores the Rafale’s commercial success, with Dassault ramping up production to meet demand. In 2023, the company delivered 13 jets, doubling to two per month in 2024, with plans to reach four or five monthly by 2026.
This surge supports both domestic needs and export commitments, which hit $18.6 billion in 2024, driven largely by Rafale sales. For countries like Colombia and Morocco, currently exploring options to replace aging fleets, the Rafale offers a versatile alternative to American or Russian systems, free of the geopolitical strings often attached to those platforms.
Yet, competition remains fierce, with Lockheed Martin’s F-35 gaining ground in Europe despite Macron’s recent call to prioritize European-made hardware over U.S. alternatives.
As France moves forward with its latest Rafale orders, the implications ripple across multiple fronts. The Luxeuil upgrade, set to position the base as the first to host the F5 variant and its nuclear payload, reinforces France’s deterrence posture at a time of global uncertainty.
The financial commitment, while substantial, fits within the broader €413 billion framework, though questions linger about funding amid efforts to curb the national budget deficit. Macron has hinted at accelerating these orders partly to replace Mirage 2000 jets transferred to Ukraine, with deliveries of those aircraft to Kyiv still on track for early next year.
Meanwhile, the EU’s €800 billion rearmament vision looms as a potential game-changer, contingent on political will and economic coordination among member states. For now, France’s actions offer a tangible step toward that goal, balancing national priorities with a broader European context as the transatlantic alliance faces an evolving landscape.
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