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London Playbook
By ANDREW MCDONALD
with BETHANY DAWSON
Good Wednesday morning. This is Andrew McDonald.
DRIVING THE DAY
SO … WHAT NOW? Keir Starmer and his team spent last night trying to work out what Donald Trump’s extraordinary phone call with Vladimir Putin will mean for Ukraine — knowing that the PM will have to say more today than No. 10’s holding response, which welcomed the “progress President Trump has made towards a ceasefire.” While Moscow may have given a (vague) commitment to pausing attacks on energy infrastructure, the Russian president withheld his agreement to a full ceasefire and stuck to his maximalist red lines for the fighting to stop completely. It leaves plenty of unanswered questions about the implications for Ukraine’s future.
And MPs will get a chance … to ask Keir Starmer all of those questions today and figure out what the government has learned, with PMQs at noon.
Quick recap: The White House got there first with its readout of the 90-minute Trump/Putin call on Tuesday afternoon, confirming that the sides agreed that “the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire.” It said technical negotiations on a Black Sea maritime ceasefire would follow, with talks on a “full ceasefire and permanent peace” after that. Which all sounded … fairly positive, if vague.
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But then … the Kremlin put out its own readout. While it did commit to a 30-day halt in attacks on energy infrastructure, it effectively rejected the Trump-negotiated full ceasefire deal. Putin said a comprehensive truce could only work if foreign military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine came to an end, conditions that aren’t acceptable to Britain or Europe … and air raid sirens then rang out in Kyiv shortly afterward and each side accused the other of attacking infrastructure. It’s not going brilliantly.
What Britain thinks: “We want to see a sovereign Ukraine that is able to defend itself, and so that would mean being able to continue to support Ukraine,” a senior government official told Playbook last night.
What the puck? The Russian readout focused largely on a Washington-Moscow reset, and said Trump agreed to Putin’s suggestion of … ice hockey matches between the two nations. Putin himself has shown he isn’t the worst hockey player in the world. Well, when facing static defenders too scared to body-check him.
In no mood to play games: Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he would support the proposal of ending strikes on energy infrastructure — but that the conditions Putin attached to a full truce show he intends to weaken Ukraine. A senior Ukrainian official tells the FT that Kyiv has asked the White House for more details about the call.
Also wanting details: Playbook hears U.K. government officials, including national security adviser Jonathan Powell, were ringing round the U.S. and allies late last night trying to work out what was actually discussed beyond the readouts, and what it means for the future. Starmer spoke to Zelenskyy last night, too, Downing Street confirmed, though there was scant detail beyond saying they discussed “progress President Trump had made towards a ceasefire in talks with Russia.” Oh to be a fly on the wall.
As for what Zelenskyy and Starmer are trying to figure out … here are some of the key issues left unanswered — all of which MPs and Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch may choose to push the PM on in the chamber today.
Unanswered question 1: The White House readout was broadly positive despite Russian reluctance to start a full ceasefire — and despite senior administration figures saying the “ball” is in Russia’s court on a ceasefire after last week’s talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Ukrainian allies will be trying to work out just how much — if any — pressure Trump put on Putin, and whether the U.S. intends to make the Russian leader pay a price if he continues to defy Trump’s demands for a full ceasefire.
Further clouding that one: In a Fox News interview last night, Trump denied that Russia’s demand to stop Western military aid came up during the call. He could have always raised it … the issue is one of Putin’s most obvious red lines.
Also not in the readouts: Any mention of the status of territory in Ukraine, despite Trump suggesting before the call the two leaders would discuss it.
Unanswered question 2: It isn’t clear what exactly was agreed. The Russian statement described a pause in attacks on “energy infrastructure” … despite the White House statement having talked about “energy and infrastructure,” which implied a wider cessation of attacks. Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox overnight that Putin agreed last week (in two face-to-face meetings lasting more than seven hours in Moscow) to a pause in fighting covering energy and other infrastructure and the Black Sea. Witkoff also said American and Russian representatives will meet to hammer out the details in Jeddah on Sunday, though he didn’t say whether Ukraine will be invited to this round.
Remember: A pause in attacks on energy infrastructure isn’t necessarily all that helpful for Ukraine if war does otherwise continue, given that Ukraine has regularly targeted Russian oil refineries with drones (to decent success). The Times quotes a Ukrainian MP arguing that this amounts to Ukraine giving away one of its “cards” in the negotiations.
Unanswered question 3: What happens next if Putin’s red lines for full peace don’t change? And will the author of “The Art of the Deal” resist the opportunity to take the small-fry ceasefire on offer and proclaim it another great success … while folding on all the other stuff?
In the meantime: The U.K. and EU are in talks to accelerate arms shipments to Ukraine ahead of a potential full ceasefire, Foreign Secretary David Lammy told Bloomberg before the readouts from the call were issued. “What we want is an end to all fighting, not a period in which Putin is able to rearm and go again,” Lammy said. One for military planners from the “coalition of the willing” countries to discuss when they meet in Northwood Thursday.
Now read: POLITICO has tons of great analysis on the Trump-Putin call. Start here with Jamie Dettmer’s take on Putin offering the “diplomatic bare minimum” and then read Tim Ross on Putin’s “dazzling” effect on Trump. Ukraine and Russia will exchange 175 prisoners each today.
IN CASE ONE HORRIFIC WAR WASN’T ENOUGH … Starmer and his ministers will also have to respond to events in the Middle East after Israel’s wave of airstrikes Tuesday shattered two months of relative calm since a ceasefire was agreed with Hamas.
Horror returns: Speaking last night, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu said the strikes were “just the start” and that Israel will “fight with increasing might.” More than 400 Palestinians have been killed in the renewed attacks. Reuters has a write-up here.
Also potentially happening: The Times’ George Grylls hears that Foreign Secretary David Lammy may correct himself in the Commons on his claim that Israel broke international law by stopping aid from reaching Gaza — after Starmer’s spokesperson appeared to rebuke the foreign secretary Tuesday. Lammy told Bloomberg’s Ellen Milligan he “could have been clearer” in the chamber when asked if he regretted making the statement.
THE WELFARE SELL
WELFARE DUST SETTLES: Trump and Putin’s cozy call pushed welfare reforms off half the front pages and out of the top spot on the BBC News at Ten. But it’s still dominating the minds of Labour MPs as they digest the details … and as the government continues the hard sell this morning.
Starting with … Social Security and Disability Minister Stephen Timms on the morning round. Full times, as ever, are at the bottom of this email.
Then: Kendall, Timms and Employment Minister Alison McGovern will continue to hold formal briefings with MPs — described as a “charm offensive” by one recipient — after starting the chats last night.
Doing his bit: Although Starmer has no planned public engagements beyond PMQs today, the PM has written an op-ed for today’s Times. It opens with the line: “Labour is the party of work.”
And also taking the “hard” bit of hard sell literally: Newsnight did a punchy interview with Treasury Minister Torsten Bell — where he argued with host Victoria Derbyshire and admitted he couldn’t live on the £70 a week that young people no longer eligible for incapacity benefits in Universal Credit will get. Remember, this is the dude who used to go on the airwaves to savage welfare cuts in his old job at the Resolution Foundation.
As for why they’re having to sell it … regular readers of this email will be unsurprised to learn that many Labour MPs have been particularly unhappy about the cuts to disability benefits. And lots of them still aren’t pleased about the measures — the detail of which was covered via Emilio Casalicchio’s excellent round-up in Tuesday’s Playbook PM.
Grumbles round-up: Backbencher Brian Leishman told the i the cuts were “austerity on a devastating scale” … A Labour MP tells Playbook’s Bethany Dawson the cuts are “cruel” and that the green paper “could have been a Tory paper” … “There is plenty I like about this package. I’m still not going to vote for it,” an MP tells the Guardian … And another MP told Bethany they are “done” with being loyal and won’t vote for the changes.
As always: The depth of the ill-feeling will become clear when MPs have to vote on the most controversial changes, expected in May.
On the other hand: Plenty of other MPs signaled they’ll likely make their mind up once they see the impact assessment of the cuts — which isn’t going to land until next week’s spring statement. In one way, that drags out the story of Labour discontent for another week … though a cynic would say it also allows the government to dump out a highly painful story about how many vulnerable people will be affected on a busy news day.
Cooling of nerves: It’s also fair to say that nerves among some MPs were calmed (a bit) by the confirmation that PIP isn’t being frozen and the other sweeteners on offer from Kendall, as my colleagues Annabelle Dickson and Dan Bloom write in their overnight take. “People came out of the chamber happier than they were going in,” one MP said.
How the papers saw it: The right-wing press coalesces around the idea that the reforms don’t go far enough — with the Sun’s leader column arguing that Labour’s “commendable reforms” might “still be too mild.” There’s more on that theme in the Telegraph and Mail, where Andrew Neil asks “IS THAT IT?” on the paper’s front page.
Elsewhere: The left-wing Mirror splashes on the “fear and uncertainty” for the vulnerable, speaking to a mum of two disabled children who warns the changes are “wrong, unjust and bordering on criminal.” The Guardian’s leader column says the “harmful changes” must be fought, while the i splashes on the big welfare cut for Generation Z-ers with mental health conditions such as anxiety and depression.
Headlines like that last one … might not help Labour hold onto the young voters who helped them back into power at the last election. And funnily enough, a new Savanta poll for ITV’s Peston program shared with Playbook shows that support for Labour among 18-24-year-olds has dropped by 10 points (to 43 percent) since they last polled the youth just before the general election. The Greens are now the second most popular party among that demographic, with Reform UK third at 13 percent.
INTO EACH LIFE SOME RAIN MUST FALL: The painful cuts aren’t over, either. Officials briefed on her plans tell the FT’s George Parker and Sam Fleming that Chancellor Rachel Reeves is looking for further cuts to fill a hole in the public finances, due to be announced in next week’s statement.
TODAY IN WESTMINSTER
PLANET TORY: Fresh from her speech on the impossibility of net zero by 2050, Kemi Badenoch is again aiming at Reform UK, using a Telegraph interview to have a rare direct pop at Nigel Farage over his exploits in reality TV. She told Ben Riley-Smith that politics isn’t “show business” and that her party needs to remind the public that “having appeal doesn’t mean that people want you running their lives.”
Spicy: “Kemi Badenoch finally admits what we have all known for a long time — Nigel Farage is a star and nobody knows who she is,” a Farage spokesperson hit back.
BLUE-ON-RED: The bill that enacts Labour’s national insurance rise is back in the Commons this afternoon, where Labour MPs will be told to vote down a great big slew of Lords amendments — including ones that would’ve exempted GPs, hospices and care providers from the changes. You can imagine the attack leaflets already.
ANOTHER ASSISTED DYING RAMMY: Labour MP Naz Shah ignited a row about the assisted dying bill committee’s late-sitting times — after she revealed she had to leave early because her hearing aids had run out of battery. Shah, a Muslim, would have been awake since before sunrise for Ramadan, meaning a very, very long day with the committee sitting until after 9 p.m. last night. She said she’d repeatedly raised her issue with late sittings with members of the committee to no avail.
Leadbeater’s team argues … that the bill committee needs to sit late to get the bill done and free up its members for other commitments. They also pointed out that the committee breaks for a two-and-a-half-hour lunch break.
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: New support for victims and survivors of terrorism, including a dedicated support hub and plans for a consultation on proposals for a national day for victims and survivors of terrorism. Security Minister Dan Jarvis has a lunchtime interview with ITV News.
TODAY AT NO. 11 DOWNING STREET: Rachel Reeves is hosting a breakfast with the King’s Trust, featuring celebrity and business supporters of the charity at the table. A handful of journalists have been invited along, too.
SIDDIQ HITS BACK: The Times’ Fiona Hamilton reports Tulip Siddiq has accused the Bangladeshi authorities of a “targeted and baseless” campaign against her, in her first significant response since resigning as anti-corruption minister in January. She quit after the PM’s standards adviser found that her family’s links with the ousted Bangladeshi regime exposed the government to “reputational risks.”
AT THE COVID-19 INQUIRY: Former Health Minister James Bethell is up at the Covid-19 inquiry from 10 a.m., followed by former Health Secretary Matt Hancock. Hancock is likely to face questions on … the Covid-19 VIP contract lane … nearly £10 billion of unused Covid PPE … procurement of Covid-19 diagnostic tests … contracts being given to suppliers whose companies were no more than 100 days old … and contracts awarded without competition.
Worth remembering: All the grillings at this stage of the inquiry are solely focused on procurement, so don’t expect questions on lockdowns, kangaroo penises or lockdown parties. Your Playbook author penned a write-up of when that was all on the table.
MONEY TROUBLES: The government’s ability to effectively monitor financial pressure at local authorities has been undermined, according to the Public Accounts Committee. The PAC says the government must set out within six months how it will reduce the levels of missing data in the whole of government accounts in the coming years.
SHOPPING PROBLEM: Retail job losses as a result of the government’s business rate increase would most impact deprived Labour-held seats where Reform came second, such as Blaydon and Consett, according to the Retail Jobs Alliance.
BUS PASS: The Electoral Commission said it is “making relevant inquiries” after Shadow Housing Secretary Kevin Hollinrake called for a “thorough investigation” into reports Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner allegedly did not declare spending on her general election battle bus. The Express’ Christian Calgie has the scoop.
SW1 EVENTS: Conservative peer Craig Mackinlay discusses cheap and abundant energy with the Adam Smith Institute from 6 p.m. (details here).
REPORTS OUT TODAY: A government approach based on “securonomics” could enhance both Britain’s security and prosperity, per the Council on Geostrategy’s Strategic Advantage Cell … the government should set a timeline for mandatory reporting by companies to motivate them to invest in nature restoration, says the Green Alliance … 65 percent of people support those on the lowest incomes getting government help to pay for climate measures, according to a YouGov poll commissioned by Friends of the Earth.
HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with Women and Equalities questions … PMQs at noon … a ten-minute rule motion on food products (market regulation and public procurement) (led by Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael) … consideration of Lords amendments to the National Insurance Contributions (Secondary Class 1 Contributions) Bill … opposition day debate. Labour MP Jonathan Brash has the adjournment debate on council tax reform.
On committee corridor: Money Saving Expert Martin Lewis discusses back-billing by energy companies with the Energy Security and Net Zero Committee (3 p.m.).
HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 3 p.m. with questions on the safety of commercial vehicles sold in the U.K., improving the collaboration between integrated care boards and housing providers, and access to NHS dentistry … second reading of the Church of Scotland (Lord High Commissioner) Bill … second reading and remaining stages of the Finance Bill … a motion to approve and a motion to regret the Infected Blood Compensation Scheme Regulations 2025.
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BEYOND THE M25
GOING GREEN: Scottish First Minister John Swinney visits the Celtic Renewables plant in Grangemouth, where he’ll discuss the future of the Grangemouth Industrial Cluster. He’ll speak to the press after — giving the SNP supremo another chance to hammer the government’s welfare changes.
IN A HURRY: The EU must urgently set out a clear roadmap for Ukraine to become a full member of the bloc, half a dozen northern European countries have warned in a letter seen by my POLITICO colleagues.
PAY UP: Bill Gates is lobbying the Trump administration to continue funding health programs worldwide, warning that his foundation cannot step in to fill gaps following major aid cuts, Reuters reports.
BUSY MAN: Russian politician Dmitry Ovsyannikov has gone on trial at Southwark Crown Court accused of breaching U.K. financial sanctions. Read more on the BBC.
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MEDIA ROUND
Social Security and Disability Minister Stephen Timms broadcast round: Times Radio (7.05 a.m.) … Sky News (7.15 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … Today (8.20 am.) … GMB (8.35 a.m.) … GB News (9.05 a.m.).
Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride broadcast round: GB News (7.30 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.45 a.m.) … Sky News (8.15 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (8.30 a.m.) … Today (8.40 a.m.) … LBC News (8.45 a.m.) … Talk (9.20 a.m.).
Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Labour MP Chris Webb (7.15 a.m.) … former Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk (7.40 a.m.).
Also on GB News PMQs: Labour MP Sally Jameson and Conservative MP Joe Robertson.
Also on Times Radio Breakfast: Former Defence Secretary Ben Wallace (8.05 a.m.) … Israeli government spokesperson David Mencer (8.45 a.m.).
Also on Sky News Breakfast: Crossbench peer and former Paralympian Tanni Grey-Thompson (7.30 a.m.) … former Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon (8.30 a.m.) … British Palestinian Committee Chair Aimee Shalan (8.35 a.m.).
Also on LBC News: Lib Dem health and social care spokesperson Helen Morgan (8.45 a.m.) … UNICEF communications specialist Rosalia Bollen (7.40 a.m.).
Politics Live (BBC Two 12.15 p.m.): Labour MP Nadia Whittome … Conservative MP Harriet Cross … Best for Britain’s Naomi Smith … the Telegraph’s Camilla Tominey … Pensions Minister Torsten Bell … Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Helen Whately. 5Live MPs Panel with Nicky Campbell (10 a.m.): Labour MP James Frith … Conservative MP Wendy Morton … SNP MP Stephen Gethins.
TODAY’S FRONT PAGES
POLITICO UK: Trump fails to get Putin to stop the shooting.
Daily Express: PM: Ukraine must have a just and lasting peace.
Daily Mail: Teen plotted ‘biggest gun massacre of the century.’
Daily Mirror: Worried sick.
Daily Star: Trumpy’s taking a Liberty … so give us our statue back!
Financial Times: Reeves to squeeze spending further next week despite £5bn welfare cuts.
i: Generation Z gets benefits cut for anxiety and depression.
Metro: Rebels force a backdown on PIP crackdown.
The Daily Telegraph: Putin rejects Trump’s ceasefire.
The Independent: One million disabled people to lose out as benefits cut by £5bn.
The Sun: What the puck?
The Times: Putin keeps ceasefire hopes on a knife edge.
LONDON CALLING
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Temperatures are up and the sun is out — happy Wednesday. High 17C, low 9C.
WINNERS … of the Pagefield Awards 2025 included Kim Leadbeater for Political Speech of the Year for her opening words in the second reading of the assisted dying bill … Dignity in Dying won the Digital Campaign of the Year … Channel 4 News’s Cathy Newman bagged Scoop of the Year for her investigation of John Smyth’s abuse and her exclusive interview with the archbishop of Canterbury … the Sunday Times’ Caroline Wheeler won Political Journalist of the Year for her coverage of the infected blood scandal … Health Secretary Wes Streeting won Frontbench MP of the Year … and Lib Dem Leader Ed Davey bagged Political Campaigner of the Year.
SPOTTED … at the Pagefield Awards hosted in One Great George Street: Conservative peers Craig Mackinlay and Tina Stowell … Reform’s Ed Sumner, Dan Jukes and Matt Mackinnon … former UKIP/SDP MP Patrick O’Flynn … culture SpAd Richard Howarth … Labour Together CEO Jonathan Ashworth … political editors including Chris Mason, Katy Balls, Beth Rigby, Christopher Hope and Pippa Crerar … Channel 4 News presenter Cathy Newman … Sky’s Ed Conway and Darren McCaffrey … broadcaster Adam Boulton … the Sunday Times’ Aubrey Allegretti … the Independent’s Kate Devlin … GB News’ Rebeca Newnes … and the Telegraph’s Kamal Ahmed.
Also spotted … at POLITICO and Netflix’s joint screening of “The Residence,” a new murder mystery series set in the White House: No. 10 director of comms Matthew Doyle … Canadian High Commission head of U.K. politics Mark Birrell … SpAd Chris McQuiggin … SNP MP Pete Wishart … Home Office Chief of Staff to the Strategy Director Geileis Cotter … U.S. Embassy cultural attaché Pam DeVolder … Australian High Commission Second Secretary Katy Rengel … Irish Embassy press officer Jamal Alkayed.
NOT ANOTHER ONE: Former Tory SpAds Callum Price and Eamonn Ives have launched a Substack to “share and amplify all the best liberal thinking and arguments from the week.” Read their opening post here.
NEW GIG: Conservative MP George Freeman has been appointed special adviser to the Guy Foundation, where he’s working on research on the health risks of human space travel.
IN MEMORIAM: Long-time CCHQ security guard Harry Burgess, who Playbook is told “kept many CCHQers over the years entertained with his charm, banter and sense of humor,” has died.
FOOTBALL FRENZY: The Commons team beat the Lobby 5-2 in a men’s game in Islington. Four of the Commons’ goals came from former staffer Matthew Torbitt — one of them was an overhead bicycle kick — and the other from LGBT Labour Co-Chair Joe Dharampal-Hornby. Betting and Gaming Council’s Oscar Tami and Grayling’s Alexis King scored the two for the Lobby.
MEA CULPA: Playbook PM last night misattributed a quote to the Conservative Environment Network about Kemi Badenoch ditching the 2050 net zero target. Director Sam Hall in fact said: “It is a mistake to have preempted the policy review by deciding that net zero by 2050 isn’t achievable … The target is based not on wishful thinking, but the scientific imperative of stopping the worsening impacts of climate change and preventing unaffordable costs … Ditching the target will undermine private enterprise and capital driving the energy transition and alienate voters worried about their children and grandchildren’s inheritance.”
Oh and: The impact assessment of the welfare changes will be published alongside the spending review.
NOW READ: POLITICO’s Karl Mathiesen has a great piece on the fallout from the North Sea oil tanker crash — getting into the subsequent blame game and its implications for the environment.
WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.
WRITING PLAYBOOK THURSDAY MORNING: Sam Blewett.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO: Labour peer and Rail Minister Peter Hendy … crossbench peer and former Met Police chief Ian Blair … non-affiliated peer Daniel Brennan … Scottish Tory MSP Jamie Greene … Opposition Deputy Chief Whip in the Lords Patrick Stopford … former Bury North MP James Daly … former Tory SpAd Ems Barr … the i’s Arj Singh … the FT’s Rafe Uddin … retired Labour peer Raymond Plant … former Welsh Government Education Minister Kirsty Williams.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Zoya Sheftalovich, Dan Bloom and Alex Spence, diary reporter Bethany Dawson and producer Dean Southwell.
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