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The Spurs have too much talent to be a true bottom-dweller but injuries have prevented them from being play-in contenders.
Which of the Jazz, Wizards, Hornets and Pelicans do you think will not end with a bottom-three record in the league and the best odds at the top pick? And which among those teams would you like to see end up with the 1st overall pick?
Marilyn Dubinski: Of the four, the Pelicans are the team with a player who is most likely to keep their heads just above the rest in Zion Williamson, but he still randomly misses games (and not just back-to-backs, as their game in San Antonio showed), not to mention they just lost yet another player for the season in Trey Murphy III. The easier answer seems to be the Jazz are the most likely to stay in the bottom three if the last 10 games are any indication for all four, but it’s impossible to say. As for who I’d want to win of these four, I have to look at it from a Spurs perspective, and it would hurt them the most if the Pelicans won since they have already shown a healthy Zion can lead them to the postseason. I’d say hope Cooper Flagg goes East, and of the two, I guess I’ll root for the Wizards since something about LaMelo Ball annoys me (it’s me, not him).
Mark Barrington: The Wizards came out of the trade deadline, not as a good team, but as a much more competent team than they were before everything shook out. I think they could pass up everyone for the fourth worst in the league, and with the way that the lottery odds are structured, there’s really only a very slight penalty for that, just a 12.5% chance of the first overall pick vs 14% for the bottom three. The Pelicans could ruin that projection if Zion Williamson plays most of the remaining games of the season because they can win some games with him tearing down opposing defenses. The chances that the top pick goes to one of the bottom four teams is 54.5%, so it’s almost as likely that none of them will pick first and the first pick could go to a lucky lottery winner in the 5-14 range. Of the four teams listed, the one I’d like to get the first pick the most would probably be the Jazz, because it’d be nice to see what Will Hardy would do with a young superstar to lead his team. But I’m not counting out the Spurs sneaking in there and drawing the golden ticket.
Jacob Douglas: I’ll go with the team with the best record, the Pelicans. However, the Washington Wizards are playing some good basketball right now, winning 6 of their last 10 games. That team is filled with fun, young talent. The Pels will string together some wins on the back of a Zion Williamson masterclass. If the Spurs don’t get the number one pick (you can still dream!), then Washington would be my favorite Cooper Flagg destination. He’d give that young core a foundational building block and finally give the franchise a direction post-John Wall and Bradley Beal.
Bill Huan: Definitely the Pelicans. They’re already “fourth” in the tank-off, and Zion is healthy (for now) and playing at almost the highest level we’ve ever seen from him. I guess it’s very possible for New Orleans to shut him down, but they still have other talent on the roster, like CJ Mccollum. In terms of who I’d like to see end up with the 1st pick, it’s the Wizards. They’re the only team out of this group that still doesn’t have a bonafide star on the roster and needs a talent like Cooper Flagg the most.
Devon Birdsong: I can tell you who is not leaving the bottom 3, and that’s the Jazz, who are currently on a ten-game losing streak and are dedicated to their tank to the point of being fined for holding players out. Whether it’s the Wizards or the Pelicans who pull themselves out feels dependent on Zion’s health. And while his body seems vulnerable to everything shy of food poisoning, the way his contract is structured makes me think he’ll show out for the rest of the season in an attempt to re-secure the bag with New Orleans, gaslighting the fan base and front office yet again with his potential.
With Fox gone, do you think the Spurs will lose enough to get close to a bottom-five record or do you think they’ll remain where they are now, in the middle of the pack along with the Bulls, Trail Blazers, and Heat?
Dubinski: I think they’ll remain in their current tier of just outside the play-in but not near the bottom of the league. They don’t have the easiest schedule left, but they have a few wins left in them to get above 30 wins, and I don’t see them falling behind all three of Toronto, Brooklyn and Philly, who each have 6 more losses. (The 76ers in particular have all the reason to keep tanking and hope they can keep their top-6 protected pick instead of sending it to OKC.) If I had to guess, the Spurs will land in the 7-10 range.
Barrington: The remainder of the schedule for the Spurs has them playing a lot of teams that are in the playoffs, who will be trying to win games to improve their seeding which means that they are going to lose a lot more games than they win. Their biggest problem is that they’re competing in the tank game with some teams that are extremely good at losing games, and who have a pretty good loss margin (it’s not a lead) to work with. I think the Spurs can make it interesting and maybe even catch (fall behind?) one or more of the Nets, Sixers, or Raptors, but the bottom four (Hornets, Wizards, Pelicans, Jazz) just have too many losses for the Spurs to catch with so few games remaining. My guess is that the Raptors go on a hot streak as they attempt to get a play-in spot and end up with more wins than the Spurs, and the Spurs end up with the 8th-best lottery odds.
Douglas: The math certainly isn’t in their favor. They are 6 games behind the Nets for the 5th worst record and only have 16 more games to catch them. My guess is they wind up somewhere in the 8 or 9 range, where they currently sit. They can still get a quality player there if they don’t move up in the lottery, it just might not be the potential star they could acquire with a top-4 pick.
Huan: The Spurs will likely be in their own tier, where they have some separation with the Chicagos, Miamis, and Portlands of the world, but not bad enough to get into that next group alongside Toronto, Brooklyn, and Philly. The latter three teams all have a 5 game “lead” on San Antonio in the tank-off, and there’s no way we’ll be able to catch them with just over 10 games left in the season. Meanwhile, the former trio all have more talent than the Spurs do and will likely win more games down the stretch.
Birdsong: My guess is that the Raptors are the only team below the Spurs with the talent and motivation to pass them up. They’re right on the edge of the play-in, and the Heat have been in a free-fall since the Jimmy Butler trade. A better question is if the Spurs will continue to out-tank the Heat, who are only one win ahead of the Spurs right now. I wouldn’t put it past the wily Pat Riley and Co. to try and maximize the value of their first lost season in a while.
There is competition for the last play-in spot in the West among some bad teams. Do the Spurs still have a chance? And if they don’t, who do you want to see make it out of the Mavericks, Suns and Trail Blazers?
Dubinski: I don’t think the Spurs have the discipline to make it without Fox and especially Wemby (although had they stayed healthy, they’d definitely be in with all the dysfunction in this tier). If they really wanted to they could probably make a push, but I don’t think that’s the goal. I admire that the Mavs have held on this long, but they just don’t have the personnel to hold on. I haven’t paid enough attention to Portland, but it should be Phoenix based on the talent level, they just have to get their heads out of their you-know-what’s and play like they’re capable of.
Barrington: This makes me think of that scene in Dumb and Dumber where Lloyd asked Mary out on a date. Yeah, there’s a chance that the Spurs could make the play-in, however unlikely, but even if they could somehow pull it off, they wouldn’t really benefit from it. In the real world, they’re engaged in a battle to lose more games than one or more of the bad non-playoff teams in the Eastern Conference. I’m pulling for a big upset in the West, where the Trail Blazers go on a hot streak and pass both the Mavs (in a tailspin) and Suns (eclipsed) to claim the last spot in the Play-in Tournament. Their euphoria lasts one game as they’re easily eliminated by the Kings in the 9/10 game.
Douglas: I don’t think the Spurs want the last play-in spot, and I doubt they get it. Despite their dysfunction, I’ll go with the Suns. That team is far too talented to miss the playoffs entirely.
Huan: NO. WAY. JOSE. The Spurs are NOT making the play-in. PERIOD. And they shouldn’t want to, either. Out of the other teams, I honestly want both the Mavs and Suns to make it so that they can play in the 9 vs 10 game. How funny would it be to watch the “unguardable” trio of Booker, KD, and Bradley “best job in the world” Beal go up against a team that might be forced to forfeit? The marketing for that game should include certain words that may not be the most appropriate for TV.
Birdsong: Do the Spurs still have a chance? I sat here for about 10 minutes, but I honestly can’t come up with a snappy retort that’s funnier than the question itself. I am absolutely rooting for the Trailblazers and the Mavericks to make it though. The Blazers, because it would continue the trend of their front office deciding on the worst long-term strategies, going all the way back to Greg Oden and Sam Bowie. (Every sport needs a lovable loser) As for the Mavericks, I just want to be able to imagine the Sophie’s Choice that their social media manager will end up facing should they make it. And of course, I always love seeing the Suns not make it. Old habits die hard. That Kevin Durant trade is going to be interesting.
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