Until the final moments before Israel resumed its military operations against Gaza, Hamas continued to receive invitations to negotiate and assurances that Tel Aviv preferred a political path over a military one to secure the return of its hostages.
However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, backed by the United States, delivered a surprise blow to the Palestinian faction with a massive airstrike that targeted dozens of locations and killed hundreds.
Since the official expiration of the ceasefire on March 1, Hamas has instructed its leaders and members to take heightened security precautions, move cautiously, avoid using vehicles and modern communication tools, and revert to traditional methods of communication.
In the lead-up to the renewed offensive, Israel ramped up its intelligence operations in Gaza—a move Palestinian faction sources had previously confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat—aiming to update its target database.
This was reflected in the overnight strike, which hit senior and field-level Hamas figures across all its wings, as well as military leaders from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Tough Choices Ahead for Hamas
Despite Israel’s large-scale assault, Hamas and other Palestinian factions have yet to mount a military response. But what are their options?
Hamas now faces difficult choices regarding its response to the latest escalation.
Sources within the group told Asharq Al-Awsat that it is weighing all options, including a political course, to prevent a broader Israeli offensive in Gaza while allowing its armed wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the opportunity to reassert control and retaliate for what it described as “massacres.”
Hamas still retains some military capabilities to strike Israeli forces, sources told Asharq Al-Awsat. However, the decision on how and when to respond lies with the military leadership of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, depending on battlefield conditions and the progress of mediation efforts aimed at de-escalation, the sources said.
“We are in the holy month of Ramadan and approaching Eid al-Fitr. The movement has no intention to escalate, contrary to Israel’s claims before its attack, which were merely a pretext for its crimes,” one source said.
According to the sources, Hamas will determine its stance in the coming hours—whether to allow its military wing to set the “zero hour” for a response or to pursue mediation efforts that would ensure the immediate opening of border crossings and the entry of humanitarian aid without delay.
What Remains of Hamas’ Military Capabilities?
After 15 months of war, Hamas has suffered significant losses in its military capabilities, particularly its stockpile of long-range rockets once fired at Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and other deep Israeli cities. This decline has been evident over the past three months, with fewer rocket launches.
Despite these setbacks, the al-Qassam Brigades managed a partial recovery, producing a limited number of long-range rockets. On December 28, 2024—just 21 days before a ceasefire agreement—Hamas launched two rockets toward Jerusalem.
Notably, they were fired from Beit Hanoun, in northern Gaza, where Israeli ground forces were operating at the time. The group has also continued to fire short-range rockets at Israeli settlements near Gaza, particularly from southern areas of the enclave.
Field sources, including some from Hamas, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades managed to retrieve manufacturing tools and equipment from tunnels and production sites targeted and destroyed by Israel.
The group rehabilitated some of the equipment and found certain devices intact despite Israeli airstrikes, the sources said.
According to the sources, Hamas' military wing had hoped the ceasefire would last longer, allowing it to resume producing rockets, explosive devices, and other weaponry. However, efforts were severely limited due to a shortage of raw materials.
The sources added that a significant number of rockets—including guided missiles such as Kornet anti-tank missiles and Yassin 105 shells—were recovered from storage sites, homes of Hamas commanders and fighters, and even tunnels, following extensive searches beneath the rubble.
On the personnel front, Hamas has been restructuring its military brigades and recruiting new fighters in preparation for a potential resumption of hostilities—an effort it had already begun amid the fighting in northern Gaza, the sources said.