The NCAA Tournament is a prime opportunity to view the next wave of NBA stars. We’ll walk you through which players to watch.
The NCAA Tournament means different things to different people.
For some, it’s a tournament to pin your hopes and dreams to one of 68 teams and being inconsolable if that team doesn’t win the whole tournament. Some people root hard for their bracket to be correct, even if they only spent five minutes on the thing.
For NBA fans, part of the appeal of the tournament can be seeing the next wave of NBA players in high stakes moments before their professional careers. But it’s hard to know which games to follow if you haven’t been paying attention all season.
Fortunately, we’ve done the work for you. We’ve highlighted the players and teams to watch this March Madness if you’re looking for guys who might get drafted and sorted them by region.
If your NBA team has already been eliminated from contention and you’re trying to get a head start on the draft, this guide is for you.
South Region
Best Prospect: Jase Richardson, Michigan State
Jase Richardson has been brought along slowly by Tom Izzo and his coaching staff this season, but he’s come on strong lately and is surging up draft boards.
While he’s an undersized guard (6-foot-3), he has excellent acceleration and deceleration, often putting defenders on skates. He’s an accurate shooter who has quickened his release somewhat but has to shoot a higher volume of 3-pointers.
He finally seems to have found the right blend of shooting a lot of 3s and hitting them at a high rate here in March.
Jase Richardson 3-Point Shooting
He needs to improve as a passer to round out an offensive profile that has a lot of ceiling but also a long runway. If Richardson has a strong showing and Michigan State makes it deep in the tournament, he has a real shot of being a top-10 draft pick.
Most to Prove: Danny Wolf, Michigan
Danny Wolf transferred from Yale and had a successful season with Michigan, showing great vision as a playmaking big and the ability to stretch the floor while still rebounding well. But he doesn’t profile as the best defender. He’s been fine against most teams, but he’s not quick enough to switch at the next level and hasn’t been an imposing enough presence at the rim despite 7-foot size.
The Big Ten tournament semifinal against Maryland was a good indication of what Wolf projects to be against NBA talent. He was part of a defense that had no shot inside against Derik Queen, who scored a season-high 31 points. But Wolf had 21 points, 14 rebounds and four assists, adding a big boost to Michigan’s offense.
If Wolf hits some 3s and flashes his passing skills for the Wolverines during the tournament, he could separate himself from a large glut of big men who will get drafted from the late lottery to the end of the first round. If he struggles with his shot and his defensive issues are magnified, he could find himself at the end of that group of players instead.
Best Potential First Weekend Matchup: Johni Broome and No. 1 Auburn vs. Ryan Kalkbrenner and No. 9 Creighton
Ryan Kalkbrenner, the second player after Patrick Ewing to be named Big East defensive player of the year four times, has seen his draft stock go up dramatically since the end of February, mostly from his stretch of six straight games of 19 or more points while shooting 50% from the floor.
There aren’t many players in the country who finish over smaller defenders inside better than the 7-1, 270-pound Kalkbrenner. He’s a bully in the purest sense, with touch and physicality that make him a lethal interior scorer.
He will be given no quarter if he faces off with Auburn in the second round. Johni Broome is one of the best players in the country and has one last shot at a championship, with an even more impressive array of inside scoring moves than Kalkbrenner.
Both players have a chance to go in the first round of the draft with big performances. Broome has long been considered more of a college player than an NBA counterpart, but his production is undeniable at this point. If he leads Auburn to a championship and has massive numbers, a team in the first round will take a chance on him.
West Region
Best Prospect: Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma
Derik Queen deserves a mention here as an elite player in the region, but Jeremiah Fears takes the cake with his insane burst and relentlessness. He needs to add weight and he’s all gas, no brakes at the moment, but he has a chance to be an electric lead guard in the NBA and could be a top-10 draft pick.
Most to Prove: Boogie Fland, Arkansas
Boogie Fland seemed likely to be picked in the 20s before needing surgery to repair a ligament injury caused him to miss two months. Now, he seems like a fringe first-rounder.
But Fland will be back for the NCAA Tournament, according to Arkansas head coach John Calipari. Even though he’ll likely be limited, Fland being able to show his quick first step and great playmaking would go a long way toward piquing the interest of NBA scouts again.
Best Potential First Weekend Matchup: Fears and No. 8 Oklahoma vs. Liam McNeeley and No. 9 UConn
We talked about the explosiveness of Fears, but his team has a tough matchup out of the gate against UConn. Liam McNeeley has been a bit uneven since returning from a five-week absence on Feb. 7, but when he’s right, he’s an excellent movement shooter who completely transforms UConn’s offense. He can be a lottery pick if teams believe he’s more talented than his numbers in an injury-marred season.
Both players are volatile, but if we get good versions of them, it could be one of the most entertaining games in the tournament.
East Region
Best Prospect: Cooper Flagg, Duke
After some early inconsistency, Cooper Flagg has cemented his best-prospect-in-the-country status and leads a loaded Duke team that is the favorite to win the tournament.
The biggest question about Flagg is his health, as he missed most of the ACC tournament with a left ankle injury. He’ll be available for the NCAA Tournament, but it remains to be seen if there will be any lingering effects from his injury.
Most to Prove: Egor Demin, BYU
Egor Demin entered the season as a potential top-five draft pick, but he hasn’t performed well enough to keep that status.
He’s as good as advertised as a passer both in the pick-and-roll and as a connector, but he has shot poorly and had issues scoring at the rim this season. His defense has gotten better, but his prospect profile always hinged on what he could do with the ball in his hands. And if he can’t score, it’s going to be hard for him to activate the lanes he needs to show off his passing chops.
Still, NBA teams will be looking for an excuse to draft a player of his size and passing ability. DRIP still projects Demin as the fourth-best freshman, but he’s accumulated the 17th-most WAR among freshmen. If Demin can turn that projection into production, it would be massively important to his draft stock.
Best Potential First Weekend Matchup: Flagg and No. 1 Duke vs. VJ Edgecombe and No. 9 Baylor
Scouts will be rooting for Baylor to win its opening matchup against Mississippi State to set up a matchup between two top-five prospects. Everyone knows about Flagg, but Edgecombe is a defensive dynamo with great athleticism, motor and instincts.
If you want someone who makes winning plays on both ends, he’s your guy. He can disappear at times on offense, but he’s come along as a scorer, leveraging his athleticism more and more when he can, and he’s a passable shooter.
Freshmen VAPR Leaders
Of course, Duke is more than Flagg, with wing Kon Knueppel and center Khaman Maluach both firmly in discussions to be top-10 picks as well. The Bears would likely need a Herculean effort from Edgecombe to advance to the Sweet 16.
Seeing how he’d play in that scenario would be fascinating.
Midwest Region
Best Prospect: Kasparas Jakucionas, Illinois
In some ways, Kasparas Jakucionas had the season many were predicting for Demin.
He’s not as big (6-6 compared to Demin’s 6-9) but he’s a wing with some size, passing chops and a good shot. Don’t let the low 3-point percentage fool you; Jakucionas can shoot it. His problem is he knows it and takes way too many quick-trigger 3s.
Jakucionas has looked worn down by the rigors of the season lately. After back-to-back 24-point games in mid-February, he hasn’t scored more than 20 points in eight straight games. Hopefully, the break before the tournament can re-energize him, because he has a chance to be a top-five draft pick with a strong showing.
Most to Prove: Will Riley, Illinois
Riley was thought to be the best prospect on Illinois at the beginning of the season, and as Jakucionas has slowed down, Riley has gotten better after a slow start.
His season numbers aren’t great, but Riley is averaging 16.3 points on 49.3% shooting since the start of February. He’s not quite as skilled a passer as Jakucionas, but he has decent vision and NBA athleticism.
If Jakucionas has a few more good scoring efforts, he’ll cement his status as a first-round pick. If he disappears on offense and gets pushed off his spots easily on defense (which happens against physical teams), it could give a lot of teams pause.
Riley will be a project after he’s picked in the draft, but teams would like to see more proof of concept in the NCAA Tournament before committing to him.
Best Potential First Weekend Matchup: Jakucionas and No. 6 Illinois vs Tre Johnson and No. 11 Texas
Yes, this is a lot of Illinois talk, but this region only has one surefire first-rounder on a team other than these two (Asa Newell of Georgia).
Tre Johnson has a case as the best prospect in the region over Jakucionas. He’s one of the best scorers in college basketball, with a lethal jumper and an array of moves to get off shots from wherever he wants on the floor. He’s averaging 19.8 points and shooting 39.2% on 3s and 89.1% from the free-throw line.
But Johnson doesn’t offer a ton of value besides scoring. He’s a limited defender and his playmaking comes and goes. Also, when his jumper is off, he doesn’t always have the answers to getting easy points. It leads to some dramatic highs (39 points on 50% shooting against Arkansas) and lows (seven points on 0-of-14 shooting against Oklahoma, which was the worst shooting performance of any player in Division I this season).
If Texas beats Xavier in a First Four game and faces Illinois, anything is on the table. We already highlighted Johnson’s streakiness, but Illinois is one of the streakiest teams in the country.
When everything is working, there are beautiful tic-tac-toe passing sequences that consistently lead to open looks. When things get bogged down, there are so many one-pass contested 3s and shots of Brad Underwood looking like he’s about to explode on the sideline.
The defense comes and goes, as well, and lately it’s been going. The game could come down to who dictates the tempo offensively between Johnson and Jakucionas.
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