Problem
On 17th March, Israel resumed its war against Gaza, killing over 400 individuals in intense airstrikes. This fresh onslaught risks renewing regional destabilisation at a time when the West Bank is also witnessing an explosion of violence due to accelerated settlement building, rampant settler brutality and an expanding Israeli military campaign.
Arab neighbours, especially Jordan and Egypt, are concerned that further spillover from the conflict will risk their own instability and further enflame public opinion. And while Israel’s crippling campaign against Hizbullah in Lebanon means it remains deterred (for now), Yemen’s Houthis—another member of Iran’s “axis of resistance”—has already resumed missile strikes against Israel in solidarity with Gaza.
But Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu can count on the support of US president Donald Trump. Despite the US acting as a guarantor of the original ceasefire deal which Trump helped secure, the president is now backing Israeli efforts to impose new terms on Hamas. He has given it carte blanche to “open the gates of hell” on Gaza.
With the US initiating a new military campaign against the Houthis and Trump vowing to hold Tehran responsible for the actions of Iranian-backed groups, the Gaza conflict may once again push the region towards all-out war.
Solution
After one-and-a-half years, Israel can make no further military gains. Given the high stakes, European governments and the EU must strongly oppose the Israeli government’s embrace of a destabilising and politically-motivated war which undercuts any prospect of advancing a credible diplomatic track that could have delivered on Israeli objectives—namely, releasing all hostages and ending Hamas’s governance and security control over Gaza.
Europeans should also provide full support for the families of hostages calling for an immediate ceasefire, while articulating the dangers of Netanyahu’s current trajectory that once again risks pulling Israel, the broader region and the US into a spiralling conflict.
But Europeans must finally match their reprobation with sanctions to demonstrate that Israel’s internationally unlawful actions come at a cost. They need to ban settlement products and financial services, suspend the EU-Israel Association Agreement (including preferential trade tariffs) and end all military support until Israel allows humanitarian aid and electricity to Gaza; implements the January ceasefire agreement; and accepts a diplomatic track allowing for Palestinian self-determination.
European governments should also reconfirm their willingness to enforce the ICC arrest warrant against Netanyahu on charges of war crimes in Gaza.
Context
To date, Israel has killed over 48,000 Palestinians in Gaza. This week’s fresh attack follows Israel’s refusal to implement the second phase of the agreed three-phase ceasefire deal, which would have enabled the release of all remaining Israeli hostages held by Hamas and Israel’s full withdrawal from Gaza.
Under pressure from his far-right ministers, Netanyahu has sought to impose a “phase one ‘plus’”. In this scenario, Hamas would release Israeli hostages in exchange for the prolongation of the ceasefire for several weeks, but without Israeli commitment to withdraw from Gaza or end the war. To pressure Hamas, Israel has already cut electricity and aid supplies to Gaza’s beleaguered population in violation of both the ceasefire terms and international humanitarian law.
But Israeli government hardliners are pushing to implement Trump’s call to forcibly expel Gaza’s 2.2 million inhabitants—potentially as a prelude to returning Israeli settlements to Gaza.
The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. ECFR publications only represent the views of their individual authors.