The apparent olive branch offered by Moscow after lengthy talks on Tuesday in fact suits the Kremlin tactically, writes world affairs editor Sam Kiley in Odesa, Ukraine
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Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump have agreed to shackle Ukraine after hours of talking on the telephone over ceasefire terms, which won’t work but are intended to further divide Ukraine and Europe from the White House.
“The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace,” the White House said in a statement about the call.
The Kremlin added: “It was emphasised that the key condition for preventing the escalation of the conflict and working towards its resolution by political and diplomatic means should be a complete cessation of foreign military assistance and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv.”
So there has not been a Russian agreement to a ceasefire. But if there is to be one, then all foreign military and intelligence assistance has to stop.
That means the Anglo-French efforts to create a coalition of the willing to back Ukraine and support a long-term peace with military muscle must stop. US assistance must stop, again. All intelligence sharing, by both the US and other Nato members, must also be ended. Ukraine, Russia has demanded, must be hog-tied, muzzled and blinded before substantial talks can begin.
The “terms” set out by the conversation will lead to talks being started almost immediately in the Middle East.
Neither the White House nor the Kremlin has mentioned any concessions on the part of Russia
Neither the White House nor the Kremlin has mentioned any concessions on the part of Russia
Who will attend them is a tricky question to answer as Ukraine cannot accept the Kremlin’s demands. And Europe has already set about dividing itself from the American security structures after Trump’s infidelity to America’s allies.
In what initially looks like an olive leaf, the Kremlin said that Putin had immediately issued orders to his forces to end attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Kyiv, Washington and Moscow may believe, should do the same.
This suits the Kremlin tactically. Ukraine has been staggeringly effective in attacking the energy infrastructure of Russia’s military. A pause in those long-range assaults on gas lines, pool refineries and other energy nodes is essential for Russia while it sets about reinforcing its efforts to continue to plough into Ukraine.
Neither the White House nor the Kremlin has mentioned any concessions on the part of Russia.
Worse still, from Ukraine’s point of view, is continued talks – between Russia and the US – on a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea.
Ukraine has largely won the battle for the Black Sea. It sunk the Moskva, Russia’s greatest battleship, and has driven its fleet out of the area where it skulks in Russian ports. A ceasefire in the Black Sea will give Russia time to manoeuvre its fleet into an attacking formation, without fear.
Ukraine and Europe will reject the results of these talks but welcome the continued process. It’s nothing but a distraction and will buy time for Europe, the UK, Canada, Australia and much of the civilised world to put together enough support for Ukraine to allow Kyiv to continue to defend democracy in the West – without America.