European Union flags are seen waving outside the EU Commission Building in Brussels, Belgium. [Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu Agency]
European Union flags are seen waving outside the EU Commission Building in Brussels, Belgium. [Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu Agency]
by Dr Elif Selin Calik CalikSelin
Europe’s energy crisis is far from over. European energy diversification efforts have faced significant challenges since the Ukraine war jeopardised Russian gas supplies. European leaders search for energy alternatives as a potential solution emerges from an unlikely region: the Iran-Iraq-Turkmenistan energy triangle. Europe has access to reliable long-term energy security through the untapped gas reserves in this region. However, political uncertainties and geopolitical barriers persistently obstruct progress.
The country that holds the fourth-largest natural gas reserves globally has worked consistently to lower its reliance on China as its main buyer. Despite sanctions, Iran maintains its status as a critical transit hub due to its advanced infrastructure. The rising energy needs in Iraq position it to function as a connecting point between Central Asian energy resources and the international market.
Energy diplomacy represents the essential approach to unlocking this potential. The March 2025 start of Turkmen gas transportation through Iran to Turkiye under a recent trilateral agreement demonstrates regional energy cooperation willingness in Iran and Turkmenistan. According to Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar, this agreement represents a historic move towards energy security, and Turkiye intends to be a major energy hub.
The importance of this development is too great to dismiss. A broadened agreement would enable Turkmen gas to enter European markets through Turkiye, which would create an alternative source to Russian gas. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stated previously that Turkiye functions as an energy hub where both pricing and distribution will be established rather than just serving as a transit nation.
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Europe needs to observe the situation closely if it truly intends to diversify its energy sources. The European Union needs alternative gas resources but shows inadequate progress in meaningful engagement with Turkmenistan and Iran.
Several key obstacles stand in the way.
Sanctions on Iran, for example, mean that European companies and policymakers remain cautious about business dealings with Tehran when considering energy-related projects because of the US sanctions regime. Although alternatives like gas swap deals exist to sidestep Iran transactions, Brussels lacks the political determination to implement them.
Moreover, Central Asia’s lack of a complete pipeline infrastructure to Europe presents a significant challenge. For decades, legal disputes about the Caspian Sea’s status have prevented the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline from moving forward despite its role in transporting Turkmen gas through Azerbaijan and Turkiye.
There is also Russia’s influence to consider. Historically, Moscow has applied pressure on Turkmenistan to route its gas exports to China instead of to Europe. Russia’s control over worldwide energy markets means that it will surely challenge the creation of any new energy transit route.
These challenges are not insurmountable, though. The EU can resolve the impasse by providing diplomatic support for infrastructure initiatives while negotiating sanctions relief for energy commerce and building stronger relations with Turkmenistan.
Europe must avoid complacency to maintain its energy security.
The EU’s reliance on liquid natural gas (LNG) imports from the US and Qatar is unsustainable from both financial and geopolitical perspectives. The heavy dependence on these costly imports poses a substantial risk to European industrial competitiveness and energy security stability.
Gas from Turkmenistan transported through Iran and Turkiye holds transformative potential for Europe provided that Brussels initiates decisive action. China and India have begun to strengthen their energy ties with Central Asian countries. The EU must act quickly or more aggressive global competitors will take this opportunity away.
The energy corridor formed by Iran-Iraq-Turkmenistan holds vital energy prospects for Europe. Merely having potential access to energy resources won’t suffice, however; Europe must engage diplomatically with determination.
Will it choose to seize this vital opportunity or let old policies and geopolitical fears control its energy destiny? Europe’s choice will decide if the continent establishes lasting energy stability or stays exposed to future disruptions.
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