SEOUL – South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment verdict is expected to follow hard on the heels of Prime Minister’s Han Duck-soo’s, which will be out on March 24.
South Korea’s Constitutional Court on March 20 announced that it will deliver the verdict on Mr Han’s impeachment on that day.
Mr Han was impeached by the National Assembly on Dec 27, 2024, over his alleged involvement in Mr Yoon’s ill-fated Dec 3 martial law declaration, which led to the President’s own impeachment.
The Prime Minister’s impeachment verdict will come just over a month after his trial concluded in a single session on Feb 19.
Observers believe that it will pave the way for the court to deliver the highly anticipated verdict for Mr Yoon’s impeachment as early as March 28.
Pundits have been waiting with bated breath over the last two weeks as the Court had been widely expected to announce their decision on Mr Yoon’s impeachment on March 14, which would have been two weeks after the conclusion of his trial on Feb 25.
The conjecture was based on previous impeachment cases of former presidents Park Geun-hye in 2017 and Roh Moo-hyun in 2004, when the Constitutional Court had declared their decisions within 14 days.
When March 14 came and went with nary a sound, speculation swirled that the eight-member bench was locked in disagreement over the verdict. The South Korean Constitution requires at least six judges to agree to uphold the impeachment.
The court’s decisions on the previous presidential impeachment cases had been unanimous.
While the impeachments of the two former presidents were “fairly straightforward”, Mr Yoon’s case is more difficult as it is “riddled with controversies”, said Dr Lee Sung-yoon, global fellow at the Washington-based think-tank Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars.
At the heart of Mr Yoon’s impeachment inquiry is whether his martial law declaration intentionally violated South Korea’s Constitution.
During the seven-week trial, witnesses had provided contradictory testimonies on key issues, such as whether Mr Yoon had given orders to block lawmakers from the National Assembly so that they could not overturn his decree, and whether he had ordered the arrest of his political rivals.
In comparison, Mr Han’s case is relatively simpler, with analysts agreeing that his impeachment will likely be dismissed.
“Mr Han is accused of being an accomplice to President Yoon, abetting Mr Yoon’s insurrection actions,” said Dr Lee. “But while the charges against Mr Han are quite grave, by all reasonable standards of assessing the level of his acquiescence and abetment, it’s quite clear that Mr Han was not an active proponent of Mr Yoon’s martial law declaration.”
To Seoul National University law professor Lee Jae-min, the fact that Mr Han’s trial concluded after just one session “indicates that the justices were very clear about the issues and would be able to deliver a short and simple verdict”.
“Mr Han’s case has been in the docket for weeks now. Getting the easy case out shows that the Court is preparing for the verdict on President Yoon, which will be more politically sensitive, more legally complex and politically far-reaching,” he told The Straits Times.
His guess is that the court could deliver its verdict on Mr Yoon’s case as early as March 28, just days after Mr Han’s verdict.
Kyung Hee University political scientist Ahn Byong-jin, who shares the assessment that Mr Yoon’s verdict is due soon, believes that the court is deliberately timing the events to soften the blow of the verdict for the President.
Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, who stands to gain the most from Mr Yoon’s impeachment as the most favoured candidate for the next presidential election, is due to appear in court on March 26 for his appeal against a one-year suspended jail sentence for violating election laws. This is just two days after Mr Han’s impeachment verdict.
It is likely that Mr Han will be reinstated and a high chance that Mr Lee’s appeal will fail – two outcomes that will be welcomed by Mr Yoon’s supporters – and Professor Ahn thinks these results will ameliorate the expected backlash from an impeachment of Mr Yoon.
Prof Ahn explained: “The judges are from the elite tier of the society, like many of Mr Yoon’s supporters. Impeaching Mr Yoon will result in a huge backlash for not just the Court but also (the judges) as individuals. So I think this could be a political calculation for them to protect their own interest and safety.”
Given the complexities of Mr Yoon’s case, Prof Lee thinks the outcome will likely be a split vote.
“From the perspective of an institution, a unanimous voice would help to mend the scars of the country. But practically speaking, a unanimous verdict will not be that easy. They may eventually achieve the needed six votes, but it will not be unanimous.”
Tensions have been rising in the weeks after the conclusion of Mr Yoon’s impeachment hearings, with both pro- and anti-impeachment groups holding protest rallies in front of the Constitutional Court and in other parts of central Seoul.
Some opposition lawmakers have even gone on hunger strike to push for impeachment, while some supporters of Mr Yoon shaved their heads in protest against the impeachment.
Acting President Choi Sang-mok had earlier urged the public to respect the ruling amid concerns over the intensifying division of the country in the run-up to the verdict for Mr Yoon.
To pre-empt any unrest, South Korean police have said on March 19 that they are prepared to deploy 14,000 riot police officers in Seoul on the day of the impeachment ruling.
Police are also taking steps to restrict access to the area surrounding the Constitutional Court that day by closing the nearby subway station and schools.
Wendy Teo is The Straits Times’ South Korea correspondent based in Seoul. She covers issues concerning the two Koreas.
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