Putting teams away in today’s NBA landscape has become increasingly difficult. Lethal scoring, perimeter-centric offenses, and versatile stars keep teams in games that look lost. No matter the competition or context, winning games is still difficult.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have had their fair share of issues in close games this season. They lead the NBA in clutch games, with 43 of their 71 games being within five points in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime. Of Minnesota’s 31 losses this season, 25 of the Timberwolves have come in the clutch, leading the NBA.
There are two sides to Minnesota’s struggles. By letting their opponents hang around, the Wolves allow them to steal a win. The Timberwolves also have trouble finding good shots. Anthony Edwards’ late-game scoring struggles have made it increasingly difficult to generate offense when they need a bucket.
Falling into old habits
There were no better examples than Monday’s loss to the Indiana Pacers and Wednesday’s to the New Orleans Pelicans.
Indiana was down four starters, with Myles Turner, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton, and Aaron Nesmith all out. Andrew Nembhard also was ejected in the third quarter. Despite being down their best players, the Pacers stuck around. Minnesota’s inability to close out the game gave them an extended opportunity.
The Timberwolves came out flat and trailed by as many as 15 points in the second quarter. However, they regained momentum, scoring 84 points and holding the lead for most of the second half. Then chaos ensued.
Obi Toppin made seven 3s, including four in overtime, stealing a win for the Pacers and ending Minnesota’s eight-game win streak.
It was a statistically improbable feat for the career 35.1% 3-point shooter Toppin. Still, Minnesota’s inability to close the game with their fully healthy roster showcased how important it is to put teams away on a nightly basis.
“Last year, we used to freeze teams out on the defensive end,” Edwards said after losing to New Orleans. “Sometimes, in the clutch moments of the game, it’s not always about offense.”
Zion Williamson has always been a Wolves killer, averaging 28.4 points per game against Minnesota coming into Wednesday’s matchup. He led the charge with 29 points on 12 of 16 shooting Wednesday night.
Minnesota’s lackadaisical effort, lack of defensive containment, and inability to slow down Williamson again allowed the Pelicans to compete for the entire game.
The Pelicans’ leads were not as egregious as Indiana’s, but New Orleans was not as desperate for a win as the Pacers. Indiana will likely clinch a playoff seed; the Pelicans are actively looking to earn a high draft selection.
Despite New Orleans’ current context, it continued to build confidence throughout the game and control it, keeping Minnesota uncomfortable. When it was time to make crucial plays in the fourth quarter, the Timberwolves and Anthony Edwards could not match the Pelicans.
Edwards’ late-game offensive inefficiencies stand out
Allowing Edwards on-ball freedom late in the game is logical. Opponents know this and will do everything they can to sell out on stopping Edwards. They will do whatever it takes to force others to beat them, sending multiple defenders toward Edwards in isolation and trapping him when he receives a screen.
Mike Conley is a trusted facilitator, Donte DiVincenzo is one of the league’s best 3-point shooters, Naz Reid is a dynamic dribble/pass/shoot threat, and Julius Randle can effectively get downhill. Still, opponents will trust their defense to hold up on the back line while they focus all attention on Edwards.
Edwards accounts for 38.8% of Minnesota’s clutch-time shot attempts. In his 39 clutch games, he’s shooting 38 of 100 (38%) from the field and 16 of 56 (28.6%) from 3-point range.
“Of course, you know, sometimes I might take hero shots because I believe that I’m that good,” said Edwards after the Pelicans loss. “I should be able to take those shots. I’ve worked for it.”
A decreased efficiency in late-game scenarios is normal. However, Edwards’s importance to Minnesota’s offensive attack overshadows everything. If he cannot find his rhythm, who will step up?
In Edwards’s career, he’s shooting 2 of 22 from the field and 2 of 15 from 3-point range on shots to tie or take the lead in the final 24 seconds of games. Players become all-time greats by scoring in the biggest moments, but Edwards is a statistical outlier for how poorly he has performed when the game is on the line.
The Timberwolves rank in the bottom 10 in the NBA in clutch time NET rating
Minnesota isn’t a positive clutch-time team. The NBA’s top-10 in clutch NET rating doesn’t fully indicate the best teams in the league. Still, the Timberwolves are surrounded by actively tanking non-playoff teams.
The Detroit Pistons are the only team above .500 ranked in the bottom ten in clutch NET rating.
It’s not a new issue for the Timberwolves. Last season’s team that made the Western Conference Finals finished minus-13.1 in NET rating in the clutch and 27th in the NBA. Still, with how many close finishes the Timberwolves have had this season, they would be comfortably avoiding the play-in if they could close out games more efficiently.
The playoffs will be the true test of Minnesota’s late-game offense
Despite their late-game struggles, the Timberwolves are in control of their own destiny with the fifth-easiest remaining schedule by winning percentage. With one game against the New Orleans Pelicans, two against the Brooklyn Nets, one against the Utah Jazz, and one against the Philadelphia 76ers remaining.
Minnesota’s fate will fully rely on its Round 1 matchup. Last year’s team overcame their lack of late-game dominance. However, it’s difficult to project how they will play in the playoffs after trading Karl-Anthony Towns.
Randle and DiVincenzo add a different dynamic than Towns. Still, Edwards’ clutch-time struggles, Conley’s lack of scoring ability, shooting 3 of 15 in clutch time, Jaden McDaniels‘s shaky 33.9% catch-and-shoot 3-point percentage, and Rudy Gobert being a blackhole offensively late in games will all be questions that need to be answered come late April.