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Five-minute read
From March 20, 2024, to March 20, 2025, Iran’s clerical regime was buffeted by a series of cascading crises—a maelstrom of political, military, economic, and international setbacks that have laid bare the regime’s internal fissures and emboldened a burgeoning call for transformation. As the regime’s once iron grip weakens, a once-suppressed populace now roars for change, echoing the revolutionary spirit of past decades.
Internal Fractures and Factional Feud
The year began with deep cracks already forming in the regime’s facade. Two sham parliamentary elections—in March and again in May 2024—saw official figures touting a turnout of 30 percent nationwide and a mere 15 percent in Tehran, while independent estimates placed participation as low as 8.2 percent. These manipulated results not only deepened public disillusionment but also set the stage for an unprecedented leadership crisis. On May 19, 2024, the abrupt deaths of the regime’s president Ebrahim Raisi, and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in a helicopter crash created a sudden vacuum at the highest echelons of power. The ensuing presidential election on June 28, 2024, which saw Masoud Pezeshkian emerge as the declared victor amid rampant allegations of fraud and an absentee turnout of nearly 60 percent, only served to further highlight the regime’s decay.
This ill-fated “Unity Government” was little more than a facade, its brief existence marred by relentless internal squabbles. Rival factions—disputing everything from dual nationality and rampant corruption to the enforcement of the mandatory hijab—waged an open war over cabinet seats and parliamentary control. Even attempts to relax internet censorship, intended to quell mounting civil unrest and stimulate economic recovery, were met with fierce resistance from extremist factions. The dismissals of key figures such as Economy Minister Abdolnaser Hemmati and presidential deputy Mohammad-Javad Zarif underscored that any semblance of unity was doomed to collapse under the weight of entrenched power struggles and diverging fiscal policies.
#Iran's Regime Infighting Escalates as Rival Factions Clash Over Power, Corruption, and Policy Failureshttps://t.co/tlsz80vGAA
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) March 8, 2025
Protests and Political Upheaval
The discontent simmering beneath the surface soon burst forth into a torrent of protest. Throughout 1403, a chorus of voices—students, retirees, workers, and myriad social groups—took to the streets in defiant protest against a regime that had lost its legitimacy. In late 2024, the state’s heavy-handed tactics became starkly apparent when it organized a massive drill in Tehran to intimidate dissenters. The situation escalated by January 2025, when the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), supported by 110,000 Basij forces, staged an even larger military maneuver—a clear, desperate bid to deter an uprising that was rapidly becoming inevitable.
The regime’s brutality reached new heights following the killing of a student during campus protests in Tehran, an incident that catalyzed a wave of outrage. The climax of the unrest unfolded during the annual Chaharshanbe Suri fire festival on March 18, 2025. Citizens in more than 130 cities defied security forces, set aflame images of the regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and demanded the end of clerical tyranny.
#IranProtests: February 2025 Sees 216 Demonstrations Amid Economic and Political Crisishttps://t.co/3inZJSuYEy
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) March 4, 2025
Strategic, Regional Setbacks
Between April and September 2024, Iran’s external strategic position suffered dramatic blows as its key proxy networks were systematically targeted. An Israeli attack on April 1, 2024, on the Iranian consulate in Syria killed Brigadier General Zahedi, his deputy Mohammad Hadi Haji-Rahimi, and seven other senior Quds Force officials, severely damaging Tehran’s military outreach.
In Lebanon, coordinated strikes in September 2024 struck at Hezbollah’s heart: on September 20, an Israeli attack killed Ibrahim Akil, commander of the elite Radwan Force, and on September 27, the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah forced Supreme Leader Khamenei to declare five days of national mourning.
The collapse of the Syrian regime in December 2024 proved equally catastrophic. Bashar al-Assad’s ouster not only resulted in the loss of billions in investments and severed a crucial military corridor to Lebanon but also obliterated key IRGC Quds Force command centers.
The subsequent deterioration of Iran’s proxy strength was compounded by violent clashes near Beirut, the seizure of Hezbollah’s cargos at the Beirut airport, and startling revelations of Tehran’s desperate meddling in Syria’s coastal provinces. Meanwhile, Turkey’s increasingly assertive stance against Iranian interference and Azerbaijan’s strategic recalibrations in the region further curtailed Tehran’s influence. In Lebanon, the formation of a new government, internal divisions, and external pressures deepened longstanding fractures, leaving Tehran isolated from even its traditional allies.
#Iran's Regime in Crisis: Insiders Reveal Regional Decline and Internal #Chaoshttps://t.co/R66zwS1OWx
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 15, 2025
Economic Freefall Amid Structural Failures
Parallel to the political and military crises, Iran’s economy plummeted into chaos. Decades of mismanagement, international sanctions, and endemic corruption coalesced into an economic catastrophe. At the start of the year, the U.S. dollar traded at roughly 60,000 tomans; by year’s end, the free market rate had more than doubled to over 100,000 tomans. Runaway inflation, collapsing financial markets, and a stock index that tumbled by 34,000 points underscored the country’s fiscal despair. Analysts from Donyaye Eghtesad warned that the nation was on a trajectory toward deindustrialization, with widespread factory closures and soaring unemployment on the horizon.
The economic crisis was further exacerbated by an acute water shortage. With 57 percent of dams nearly empty and Tehran suffering from significant land subsidence, the water crisis threatened to escalate into a full-blown catastrophe.
The government’s desperate 1404 budget—designed to prop up regime survival—introduced a series of oppressive tax hikes and new fees that aimed to squeeze every last drop of revenue from a suffering populace. These measures, including soaring corporate and personal taxes, only deepened public resentment and heightened fears of economic collapse.
Price Hikes and Escalating #Inflation Deepen Economic Crisis in #Iranhttps://t.co/La9aQy0LAc
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) November 18, 2024
Human Rights Abuses and Global Condemnation
Perhaps the most damning indictment of the regime came from the international human rights community. A comprehensive 252-page report by a United Nations Fact-Finding Mission, published on March 18, 2025, laid bare a litany of systematic human rights violations. Drawing on over 38,000 pieces of evidence and hundreds of victim testimonies, the report detailed how state repression had escalated into an unrelenting campaign of torture, public executions, and brutal crackdowns on ethnic and religious minorities. In 2024, the regime recorded its highest number of executions since 2015, with over 1,000 executions—and a deeply troubling number of these carried out against women and even juvenile offenders. This report, combined with a UN General Assembly’s 71st resolution adopted on December 21, 2024, which condemned Iran’s illegal use of the death penalty, arbitrary detentions, and other repressive practices, has galvanized international condemnation.
On the global stage, Iran’s isolation deepened. From early 2024 through early 2025, an array of international measures chipped away at Tehran’s already fragile standing. Western nations, in concert with allies around the world, targeted key regime figures and institutions. In a series of decisive moves, Canada expelled high-ranking officials and designated the IRGC as a terrorist organization; Germany raided properties linked to the regime and shuttered key cultural centers; and both the EU and the UK implemented sweeping sanctions that further straitjacketed Iran’s financial and military networks.
In early 2025, the United States reinstated its “maximum pressure” campaign against the Iranian regime. The U.S. Congress introduced a bipartisan resolution urging the EU to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization. By imposing new sanctions on individuals, companies, and vessels linked to Iran’s air and shipping sectors, the Trump administration combined diplomatic and intelligence efforts targeting Iran-backed plots and underscored Washington’s commitment to curtailing Tehran’s regional influence and disrupting its financing of terrorism.
The new UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in #Iran, @DrMaiSato, has warned the @UN Human Rights Council about a sharp rise in executions, persecution of marginalized groups, lack of transparency, and ongoing suppression of dissent by authorities.#HRC58 pic.twitter.com/XeK5j5vy1u
— UN Human Rights Council (@UN_HRC) March 18, 2025
Strength of the Iranian Resistance in 1403
In 1403, the Iranian Resistance surged as a beacon of defiance, transforming public spaces into stages for powerful protest. The PMOI-led Resistance Units carried the torch of hope across Tehran, Zahedan, Shiraz, and Kermanshah. They boldly rejected sham elections and state propaganda, turning every rally and banner into a declaration of freedom—emblazoned with slogans like “Woman, Resistance, Freedom” and “Death to the oppressor.”
Each act of protest, from commemorating martyrs to defying oppressive measures on key national dates, showcased the unyielding spirit of a people determined to reclaim their future. The Resistance Units, through creative graffiti and spontaneous rallies, united diverse groups—students, workers, and families of martyrs—in a nationwide movement that struck at the heart of tyranny.
Globally, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) amplified these efforts with a series of impactful international actions and diplomatic achievements. Through global summits, coordinated advocacy, and solidarity campaigns, the NCRI rallied support from across the world. Their tireless work in forging alliances and mobilizing international opinion not only underscored the legitimacy of the resistance but also helped pave the way for a future where freedom in Iran is recognized and celebrated on the global stage.
Together, these bold domestic and international initiatives in 1403 laid a firm foundation for change, embodying the collective resolve of the Iranian people to usher in a new era of democracy and justice.
Report: Iranian Resistance Activities and Achievements in 2024 https://t.co/zdEYCgD6UW #FreeIran2025 #NCRIAlternative
— Ali Safavi (@amsafavi) January 5, 2025
Free Iran 2025
As the tumult of 1403 reached its zenith, even Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was forced to acknowledge the regime’s near-collapse—a reckoning reminiscent of the revolutionary fervor of the 1980s. In his Eid address on March 20, 2025, Khamenei stated, “The events that took place in 1403 are similar to those of 1360 and come with hardships and ordeals.”
This stark admission laid bare his deep-seated fear and underscored the cascading failures that had left the regime teetering on the brink. For the Iranian people, the convergence of political infighting, brutal repression, economic freefall, and international isolation has opened a window of opportunity—a potential turning point toward radical change.
In the face of unprecedented crises, the narrative of 1403 is not solely one of despair. It is also a story of a nation rising against oppression, a people uniting in the hope of transformation, and the inexorable push toward a future where freedom and accountability might finally prevail. The events of this harrowing year serve as a powerful testament to the resilience of the human spirit, even in the darkest hours of tyranny.