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Rumours once again suggest that Bruno Guimarães could leave Newcastle - would replacing him even be possible?
It will take something pretty substantial to bring the mood on Tyneside down over the course of the next couple of months – but the rumour mill is doing its best to add a little bit of cloud to the colossal silver lining of winning the League Cup at Wembley by suggesting that one of Newcastle’s most important players could leave this summer.
A report going around all the usual transfer websites claims that Arsenal are yet again interested in Bruno Guimarães, the midfielder who has not only been Newcastle’s most important player over the past few years but the beating heart of its team. It’s not a new story, by any means, but if it’s resurfacing once more then that could be considered somewhat concerning.
Nor is it only Arsenal who have been linked with Bruno. Barcelona’s name has cropped a few times, Manchester City’s too, although that seems to have slowed down since Pep Guardiola’s side splashed out on Nico González in January. It’s also been suggested that the Magpies could be pursuaded to let the player leave for around £60m, should they fail to qualify for the Champions League.
Still, the fact is that there are quite a few clubs who would love to get their hands on the Brazilian – and they need a Plan B in case he leaves.
Bruno probably won’t go – but it could be a disaster if he does
Two years ago, when Newcastle lost the League Cup final to Manchester United, Bruno’s post-match tears became one of the enduring images of the game – which made for a rather emotional full circle moment last Sunday when he wept tears of joy after winning a first major trophy with the club.
The long and short of it is that Bruno loves Newcastle, the latest in a long line of South American stars who have made Tyneside their home and fallen in love with the place. His performances have often led to suggestions that the world’s biggest teams want to sign him, but he has never offered the slightest hint of wanting to force his way out. He appears content to stay, and has three years left on his contract.
It’s also worth noting that the original source for the current crop of stories is Spanish website Fichajes, which is not noted for its reliability – not that they’re the first to come up with the story. It’s also widely expected that Arsenal will sign Real Sociedad’s Martín Zubimendi this summer, which would rather obliterate the need for another midfielder.
Still, Bruno is a wanted man. Should the Zubimendi deal fall through, should Barcelona find another economic lever to pull or should Rodri pick up another injury, then perhaps a bid will come in, and perhaps the money will talk at sufficient volume to see Bruno leave.
That would represent a big problem for Newcastle. Not only is Bruno among the world’s best box-to-box midfielders, he’s also a perfect fit for Eddie Howe’s playing style, able to get from one third of the field to the other quickly, making an impact at both ends and often driving possession up the pitch himself.
The Brazilian’s combination of ball-winning skills, threat in the final third, dribbling and passing ability and pace and energy is rare, and any team that wants to play compact, direct football would value having him. That’s also a perfect description of Newcastle.
Losing him would be doubly problematic if they didn’t manage to qualify for the Champions League and lost a little bit of pull in the transfer market. To put in context just how few players have the same all-round skill set in the world, the only current Premier League midfielder who puts up similar numbers in all three thirds of the pitch is Chelsea’s Enzo Fernández. Players like Bruno don’t grow on trees, and can be incredibly expensive. Selling him, even at a premium, does not mean that they would necessarily be able to recruit a like-for-like replacement, which is something they would sorely need.
One player could be the perfect replacement if Bruno leaves
For the sake of a thought experiment, we decided to comb the stats from Europe’s ‘Big Five’ leagues to see if we could find an established player who would fit the bill and also represent a plausible summer transfer target – and we found one. Just one.
At the age of 28, Nadiem Amiri is having a career-defining year in the Bundesliga with high-flying Mainz. Hardly one of Germany’s traditional superpowers, they are currently third and on course for Champions League qualification, largely thanks to Amiri’s colossal step forward.
A five-cap German international, Amiri was a rotational player at Bayer Leverkusen who left midway through their invincible season last year – but it probably isn’t a move he regrets, having established himself as one of Germany’s best midfielders in a role which suits him down to the ground.
It’s a system which happens to have a lot of similarities with Newcastle’s own. Although Mainz typically play in a 3-4-3 rather than Howe’s 4-3-3, the intent to condense the field and utilise an aggressive man-to-man pressing system is there, and Amiri has flourished in it.
He’s scored six goals this season so far, including a cracking 20-yarder in a recent win away to Borussia Mönchengladbach, and provided three assists – and there really aren’t many statistical markers where his performances can be said to be behind Bruno’s.
This season, at least, he’s scored more, created more shooting chances and forced more turnovers. Bruno is a better passer with a wider range, but he also makes more mistakes – the Brazilian has been dispossessed three times as often as Amiri this season.
And Amiri is attracting attention. Mainz may well make the Champions League, but they lack big-club clout and Sport Bild report that RB Leipzig are already interested. Given his age and the fact that this may be his last chance to secure a move to the very top, don’t be surprised if a bidding war breaks out. So long as Newcastle can offer Champions League football as well, there’s no inherent reason that he shouldn’t be on their radar.
There are other, younger players who might make the leap (AS Monaco’s 21-year-old prodigy Lamine Camara feels only a few steps away from stardom, for instance) and better scouts than us might find a perfect fit in a less well-watched league – but at least there are some options out there for Newcastle should the worst happen. In a perfect world, however, it’s not a conversation they’ll even need to have. Bruno doesn’t just make Newcastle better – he makes them, full stop.