As President Trump increases pressure on the Islamic Republic of Iran and its Mideast proxies, prospects for a negotiated pact over the nuclear file are dimming and kinetic attacks on Tehran’s bomb facilities seem closer than ever.
For now, though, America is concentrating its military efforts on Iran’s last formidable proxy army. On two occasions Thursday, the Yemen-based Houthis launched ballistic missiles at Israel.
One of the attacks forced Tel Aviv residents into shelters in the early hours of the morning. In the evening, another missile triggered sirens in the Jerusalem area. In both cases the missiles were intercepted outside of Israel’s airspace by the Arrow air defense system. No casualties or damage were reported.
At midday America launched two strikes on targets at Yemen’s Hudeidah port, a hub for the Iran-backed Houthis. These new strikes are intensifying an ongoing campaign launched over the weekend to end Houthi aggression and its blockade of global ship traffic in the Red Sea.
Mr. Trump has said that he would consider Iran responsible for Houthi aggression. Following the president’s letter to the Tehran leadership, in which he urged diplomacy to end the Islamic Republic’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, the administration is ratcheting up the pressure, and strongly indicating that the military option is on the table.
Mr. Trump “would tell you he would much prefer to work this out diplomatically without a war,” Secretary Rubio told broadcaster Hugh Hewitt Wednesday night. “But if you force him to choose between a nuclear Iran or taking action, the president’s been clear: He will take action.”
The Department of State announced new sanctions Thursday on a Communist Chinese oil terminal, Huaying Huizhou Daya Bay Petrochemical, for buying and storing sanctioned Iranian crude oil. Other Chinese companies dealing in Iranian oil were also listed. State cited an executive order signed by Mr. Trump in his first term as part of that era’s policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran.
Mr. Trump’s letter to Tehran was delivered this week by special envoy Steve Witkoff through the United Arab Emirates. According to Axios the letter included a two-month deadline to reach a new deal, after which the threat of American or Israeli military operations will increase significantly.
The Islamic Republic’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has ruled out negotiations with America, but on Thursday Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Aragchi, said Mr. Trump’s letter might present an opportunity. It “was more a threat, but it claims to have opportunities,” he said. “We paid attention to all points held in the letter and will consider both threat and opportunity in our response. There is an opportunity behind every menace.”
Mr. Aragchi’s statement was widely seen as an Iranian attempt to buy some wiggle room. Yet Washington and allies are indicating time is quickly running out. Mr. Rubio said that America would act with or without global approval.
“Whether other countries seek to join us in that endeavor or simply cheer us on, sometimes quietly from the sidelines, that’s another matter,” he said. “But it certainly will not determine the steps we take, because we view a world with Iran having — and the ayatollahs, these religious fanatics, having nuclear weapons — that’s just not acceptable.”
Israel destroyed most of Iran’s air defenses last October, opening a window of opportunity for air strikes against the nuclear facilities. That window could soon close, though, as the nuclear program is advancing rapidly. Last month the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran has dramatically increased production of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity, which can easily be purified to bomb-grade level of nearly 90 percent.
The British deputy ambassador at the United Nations, James Kariuki, told reporters last week that Britain and others would use all diplomatic means, including “the use of snapback,” to stop Iran’s development of nuclear weapons. The snapback option would revive all global sanctions on Iran that were gradually rescinded since the 2015 Iran nuclear deal was struck by President Obama.
Mr. Trump seems intent on ratcheting up economic pressure on Iran, where the rial for the first time is being sold for $1 million. Yet, the mullahs are evidently intent on obtaining a nuclear weapon. As time is running out, the military option is increasingly seen as the only option left for halting Terhan’s race to the bomb.