History has good and bad news on nuclear proliferation under Trump.
By Nicholas L. Miller, an associate professor of government at Dartmouth College and author of the book Stopping the Bomb: The Sources and Effectiveness of U.S. Nonproliferation Policy.
A man sits at a desk piled with stacks of papers holding aloft a long curling ticker of paper with both hands. Behind him are curtains and flags.
U.S. President Richard Nixon holds up stacks of wire transmissions piled on his desk at the White House in Washington on Nov. 4, 1969.
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March 20, 2025, 3:53 PM View Comments
Concerns about nuclear proliferation, already heightened by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, have reached a fever pitch in recent weeks, as analysts worry that the Trump administration’s apparent embrace of Russia and distancing from allies could lead some U.S. partners to take their security into their own hands through the acquisition of nuclear weapons.
In recent days, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk suggested that his country should consider acquiring nuclear weapons, and the likely next German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, raised the possibility of hosting French or British nuclear weapons as a hedge against the declining credibility of U.S. security guarantees. Meanwhile, South Korean politicians continue to debate the merits of seeking an independent arsenal. Given these trends, how likely is it that we will see a surge of nuclear proliferation?
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Nicholas L. Miller is an associate professor of government at Dartmouth College and author of the book Stopping the Bomb: The Sources and Effectiveness of U.S. Nonproliferation Policy. X: @Nick_L_Miller