Confusion continues for the New York Knicks. After waiting months for Mitchell Robinson to return from an injury suffered in last season's playoffs, the Knicks recently lost their All-Star point guard to an ankle injury. Thus, reviews of the team remain incomplete, as there is limited game tape of a fully healthy Knicks' roster to review. Still, there is a light at the end of the tunnel in the form of defensive progress and an increasing hope around a Jalen Brunson return.
First, the good news. Brunson is reportedly out of his walking boot and has begun some shooting work, per Steve Popper of Newsday Sports. So, it's plausible to think that Brunson can return by early to mid-April.
Brunson's absence hurt Knicks' offense
New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) drives past Brooklyn Nets guard Keon Johnson (45) in the second quarter at Barclays Center
Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images
The Knicks are obviously better with Brunson. It's hard to say how good they are defensively with him and Robinson. But their offense is clearly worse without him. New York is tied for seventh in points per game (116.6) and fifth in offensive rating (117.7) on the entire season, which includes their sub-par play of late with their captain.
However, since losing Brunson, New York is averaging 109.5 points per game, which would rank 25th in the league if extrapolated for the year.
Looking at why the team's offense has stagnated, one thing jumps out—New York's poor field goal percentage. On the season, which (again) includes some recent poor performances, the Knicks are shooting just 48.7%, which is good for fourth in the league. They are shooting just 43.9% from the field in the six games without Brunson. For context, that would be tied with the Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards for second-worst in the league.
Robinson's return gives signs of things to come for Knicks defense
Conversely, the Knicks defense has been playing incredibly well of late, and that's to the credit of Robinson—and in fairness, has little to do with Brunson's absence.
The Knicks have a defensive rating of 112.4 through nine games with Robinson this season, compared to 116 without him. Their updated defensive rating includes a recent let-down game against the undermanned San Antonio Spurs, in which the Spurs dropped 120 points.
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Through nine games, Robinson is tied for the fifth-best defensive box plus/minus among centers (1.4) in the NBA and seventh-best overall box plus/minus among centers (3.3).
And the Knicks should be optimistic about their future with Robinson. The seven footer is far from ramped up. He's only achieved a season-high 23 minutes, which came in a recent win against the Miami Heat. And Robinson is averaging only 16 minutes per game since returning. A lighter work load makes a lot of sense considering how injury prone Robinson has been through his seven-year career.
But when healthy and locked in, there are few centers like Robinson. He provides a near perfect mix of physicality, length, and grit. He has a nose for the ball, especially on the offensive glass. And he's among the best rim protectors in the league.
There have been some encouraging signs for Robinson—namely, a recent double-double (13 points and 11 rebounds in just 17 minutes) in their loss to San Antonio. And his impact should continue to grow as he plays more minutes.
Knicks immediate future could be brighter than we thought
What the Knicks need is simple and, dare we say, probable (albeit not guaranteed)—a Brunson return before the playoffs with Robinson remaining healthy and improving his conditioning. If that happens, the Knicks could theoretically merge the second-ranked defense with an elite offense. Granted, there are still depth issues that New York must solve, but a healthy Robinson makes them easier to navigate. Remember, a healthy Robinson means there are essentially seven starting caliber players in the team's rotation (which includes Miles McBride, as well).
Further, the Knicks depth issues aren't as much of a problem in the playoffs, as rotations typically shrink. At that point, rest becomes more of a priority than depth. So, much of the onus falls on the team to put away whomever they face in the first-round as quickly as possible. Getting an extra day or two of rest before a possible second-round appearance could make a tremendous difference.
Obviously, that's easier said than done, as the Knicks will likely face the Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers, or Milwaukee Bucks—with all three being dangerous in their own right. But at the end of the day, New York has bigger fish to fry after the first-round. They cannot afford to look past any opponent. But they must remember which teams they would be set to face farther along in the playoffs. Hopefully they respond accordingly.