Latest Developments
Letter Seeks Direct Negotiations With Iran: President Donald Trump reportedly gave Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei two months to reach a nuclear deal with the United States in his recently delivered letter to Tehran proposing direct negotiations between the two nations. A U.S. official and two sources quoted by Axios on March 19 did not indicate whether the two-month countdown started when the letter was delivered on March 5 or from the start of negotiations.
Tehran Considering Reply to Letter: In the letter, Trump said he warned the Islamic Republic that “there are two ways Iran can be handled: militarily, or you make a deal.” Khamenei and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly rejected Trump’s offer for negotiations, with Khamenei saying on March 12 that “the invitation to negotiate … is a deception of public opinion.” The Iranian mission to the United Nations told reporters on March 17 that Iran is studying the letter and drafting a response.
Iran Must Give Up All Aspects of Nuclear Program: U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said on March 16 that Iran needs to verifiably relinquish all aspects of its nuclear program, including its missile program, weaponization efforts, and uranium enrichment activities. The International Atomic Energy Agency, which acts as the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, reported on February 26 that Iran possessed enough 60 percent enriched uranium, which is near weapons grade, for nearly seven nuclear weapons.
FDD Expert Response
“No doubt, Trump cannot let Tehran run the clock cost-free and inch towards a nuclear weapon. A late-spring or early-summer deadline for the Islamic Republic to engage in good faith negotiations would be in line with the timeline needed to establish a diplomatic pathway with the Europeans to trigger the snapback mechanisms at the UN Security Council before they expire this October.” —Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran Program Senior Director and Senior Fellow
“Trump’s two-month ultimatum lights a fire under the ayatollah to negotiate or risk the elimination of his nuclear facilities and other key assets by force, which could shake the regime’s hold on power. Given the Trump administration’s recent actions to degrade Iran’s chief remaining proxy, the Houthis in Yemen, Khamenei should recognize that his nuclear weapons and missile-delivery programs are now a serious liability and agree to dismantle them.” — Andrea Stricker, Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fellow
“For too long, Tehran has exploited the negotiation process as a stalling tactic, seeking to extract concessions through waivers and other lenient measures. This decision sends a clear signal that the regime’s strategy — delaying potential talks while leveraging its nuclear advances for diplomatic extortion — will no longer be tolerated. By shifting the onus onto Iran, this approach not only disrupts its cycle of procrastination but also represents a decisive and astute diplomatic strategy, compelling Tehran to make a definitive choice.” —Janatan Sayeh, Research Analyst
FDD Background and Analysis
“‘All Options are on the Table’: U.S. Reaffirms Call for Iran’s Complete Nuclear Disarmament,” FDD Flash Brief
“Iran’s Nuclear Disarmament,” by Orde Kittrie, Andrea Stricker, and Behnam Ben Taleblu
“Russia and China to Discuss Iranian Nuclear Program Following Joint Naval Drills,” FDD Flash Brief
“Trump Ends Sanctions Waiver on Iraq’s Purchase of Iranian Electricity,” FDD Flash Brief
“No negotiations before total Iranian nuclear rollback,” by Mark Dubowitz and Jacob Nagel
Issues:
Biodefense Iran Iran Nuclear Military and Political Power Nonproliferation