These observations — where I look atReal Madrid’s history, its players on loan, Castilla, tactical tidbits, and other relevant thoughts — are now a regular thing. All previous editions can be foundhere.
Happy international break! I’ll be dedicating the next week or so to scouting Arsenal in preparation for pre-game previews on the podcast before heading to London. Here are some preliminary thoughts on The Gunners, as well as some notes on Kylian Mbappe.
Arsenal: versatile, methodical
Arsenal might be the best defensive team in Europe, and that’s a big statement given that Real Madrid just ground out, through their teeth, a penalty shootout win over Atletico Madrid — a team that gives them hell and no space to work with. Arsenal are more tactically versatile than Atletico, but they are just as good, if not better, defensively than Simeone’s men. This season, they have a league-best xGA (24.7). Only two teams in the Big Five Leagues (Bayern Munich, Napoli), have a better mark. Inter have the best defensive record in the Champions League so far, having conceded just two goals, but they’ve out-performed their xGA (9.2) by a laughable margin. Arsenal have a Champions League best 8.7 xGA.
Despite not having a striker (Gabriel Jesus suffered a big injury earlier this year and Kai Havertz is out for the year), they’ve generated offense through rabid pressing (a league-high 8.51 passes per defensive action), some funky Mikel Merino-false-9 line-ups, ingenius set-pieces, heavy use of inverted full-backs, line-breaking from Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli, and surgical vertical passing from the Ø (Former Real Madrid player Martin Ødegaard).
In instances where they commit bodies forward, they are lightning quick to snuff out transition attacks with how rapidly everyone recognizes what zones they need to sprint to off the ball:
Arsenal transition defense. 7 players in the final third, loss in possession; impressive how quickly everyone recognizes immediately where they need to sprint to. pic.twitter.com/qWo6wap2kz
— Kiyan Sobhani (@KiyanSo) March 20, 2025
As is almost always the case with Real Madrid and their opponent in a big Champions League knockout tie: How they play through pressure, position themselves between the lines, and hit their targets in transition is imperative and directly correlated to their success. Will Mbappe and Vinicius be isolated? Can the central midfielders provide press-resistancy and surgical passing with minimal time and space afforded to them?
Kylian Mbappe, an awakening force
It just feels like Mbappe is doing everything better right now. He is playing his pseudo-striker role to a science, adapting to the team’s center-forward role which elevates the entire offense.
Mbappe’s dribbles and cuts are purposeful. He has made a mockery of defenders by faking one way and cutting into the opposite direction. He is holding the ball up better, he is dropping to help escape pressure, he is distributing possession to the wings before sprinting into scoring position with untraceable speed.
This version of Mbappe elevates the ceiling of the team to new heights.
Underrated: He is strong on the ball, hard to bully. Not a typical Haaland-tank-like-figure, but can hold his own and has an eye for getting to balls first, even when a step behind the play initially:
There are still plenty of big games on the schedule. At least four or five — and up to ten depending on how far the team goes. As the cliche goes, ‘this is what you signed him for’. It will be really interesting to see Mbappe’s impact now, as we head into the climax of the season.
And let’s be clear, we’ve seen it already: 30 goals and counting, including a hat-trick against Manchester City. Mbappe is first in the Big Five Leagues in goals + assists per 90 and is generating an ungodly amount of shots (only Nikola Krstović of Lecce shoots more in Europe). Only two players in the Big Five Leagues — Mohamed Salah, Vinicius Jr — have more carries into the penalty area, and only one player — Salah — receives more progressive passes. Mbappe is active, present. He’s taking more of an alpha role (much-needed), and is an omni-present outlet in transition.
Mbappe, an historically poor defensive player, has also started to buy in to more defensive sacrifices for the greater good of the team. He may not put his body on the line every game on defense, but we have seen him boast an uptick in off-ball effort in the Champions League knockout games.
This season may yet still end in disaster (sorry!), but it won’t be on the team’s top scorer. Mbappe is a superstar with years of better football likely ahead of him. He is starting to orchestrate the team’s offense with fluidity, speed, decisiveness. It is nice to see the game starting to come to him in slow motion.
Fairly or unfairly, the season will be judged on efficiency in key moments. Will Mbappe convert the decisive goal? Will Vinicius? Some of the synergy problems, according to this author’s eyes, are overblown. Vinicius and Mbappe create a ton for each other, but missed-chances have hurt the team. Mbappe and Vinicius are scoring difficult goals, and missing some of the easier ones. It’s cliche but true: These superstars get paid to deliver lethal blows when the season is on the line. A lot of the wasted chances this season will be forgotten if Mbappe and Vinicius deliver the death blow(s) to their opponents to close the season.