To nobody's surprise, the Houston Texans came to an agreement with All Pro cornerback Derek Stingley, Jr. on Monday this week. The contract extension for Stingley will pay him $90 million, nearly all of it guaranteed, over the 2027 through 2029 seasons. Stingley was Nick Caserio's initial first round pick as the team's general manager, and the contract validates that success.
If you come away from any given draft class with a couple players you want to keep around for a second contract (after the four or five year rookie deal is up), you've done well, by NFL standards. The Texans, it would appear, have drafted pretty well the last few years, because there are plenty of players who appear on track for eventual second deals.
Laremy Tunsil cited this drafting trend as a reason he was traded to the Commanders, to where the Texans will only have so much salary cap space to go around:
"Pretty much, they're just trying to keep the young guys together. It's as simple as that," Tunsil, 30, said. "When I was a rookie (in Miami) and I would talk to my O.G., who was Brandon Albert, and Jermon Bushrod and Mike Pouncey, they told me it's a young man's game. I've seen it for myself. They drafted some young guys, and they hit on every draft pick. They're trying to keep those guys together, so I fully understand.
"They just paid (cornerback Derek) Stingley today, they gave that boy that bag. So I truly understand. It's no hard feelings. At the end of the day, it's a business. I don't take anything personal. It's no hard feelings against the Houston Texans."
So, there you go. Tunsil himself cites the Stingley trade and implies that's the first of many deals to come. So where do the Texans current "rookie contract" players stack up on the contract extension likelihood list, when they become eligible? Let's take a look:
**100 PERCENT LOCKS – QB C J. Stroud, DE Will Anderson, Jr.**It's a small sample size, just two draftees, but with the extensions handed down to Nico Collins last May and Stingley this past week, Nick Caserio has shown that he is very willing to get out in front of the massive salary inflation and lock his guys in at market prices before they go up. I point that out to say that I'd be shocked if Stroud and Anderson didn't have new extensions before training camp in 2026.
HIGHLY LIKELY – S Jalen PitrePitre just finished his third season, and is eligible for an extension now. His first two seasons were very "feast or famine," where the good plays were really good, and the bad plays (and dozens of missed tackles) were not so great. Pitre was coming into his own as a slot corner and playmaker, before tearing his pectoral muscle in Week 12 last season. The team loves his leadership and energy. I think he gets a new deal this summer.
HIGHLY UNLIKELY – WR John Metchie, RB Dameon PierceMetchie and Pierce are both part of the 2022 draft class, and both are extension eligible. Neither has played well enough to warrant an extension this summer, and my guess is that both hit free agency after 2025, or get traded at some point.
OFF THE GRID – LB Christian HarrisHarris, another 2022 draftee is in a category of his own. In the second half of the 2023 season and in the playoffs, Harris was one of the best players on DeMeco Ryans' defense. A second contract seemed like an extreme likelihood. Harris then suffered a mysterious calf injury in the 2024 offseason, missed all but about 30 minutes of training camp practices, and then came back in Week 15 to a very sporadic workload. Harris is one of the biggest mysteries heading into the 2025 season.
WATCH LIST – CB Kamari Lassiter, S Randy Bullock, T Blake Fisher, C Juice Scruggs, WR Tank Dell, LB Henry To’o To’o, C Jarrett Patterson
These are essentially all of the 2023 and 2024 draft picks that have started games, but not yet established themselves fully as long term players. If I had to handicap the likelihood of a second contract down the line, my power ranking would go like this:
Lassiter
Bullock
Fisher
To'o To'o
Patterson
Scruggs
I'm leaving Dell off to the side, until we know what his recovery from the massive knee injuries he suffered in Week 16 looks like. That said it sure is nice to have this many young players where a contract extension is a talking point.
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