In the village of Armash, a hundred kilometres south of the Armenian capital Yerevan, Anishit (her name has been changed for her own safety) looks up at a huge flag. It is flying from the crest of the mountain that towers above her house, and it features not the red, blue and orange of Armenia but the azure, red and green of Azerbaijan. As she feeds her chickens, this pensioner confides her anxiety: “We're stuck on this frontier. That's why we're scared.”
We are at the junction of Turkey, Iran, Armenia, and the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan. The few villages in this valley are caught in a vice. Four kilometres from Armash, the forces of Yerevan and Baku face each other off. The parties are separated by the E117 road, that winds its way from Russia to Iran while carefully avoiding Azerbaijan.
From the trenches, the belligerents keep watch on each other. The main road is in daily use by lorries that date from another era. Here at the foot of Mount Ararat, the positions are frozen in place and the pillboxes occupied. Behind sandbags, silhouettes of soldiers are visible.
From her home, Anishit can see the buildings of the Russian base at Yeraskh. ©Théodore Donguy
From her home, Anishit can see the buildings of the Russian base at Yeraskh. | Photo: ©Théodore Donguy
Anishit refuses to say anything more about this sad scene. Instead, she points to a building a few streets down. A white, blue and red flag hangs over a shed. It is occupied by Russian forces. Since 2020, Moscow has stationed several thousand border guards in Armenia.
In agreement with Yerevan, the guards are deployed in five provinces to enforce the terms of the ceasefire agreed with Azerbaijan following the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2020. Before returning to her farm, Anishit has a simple thought to share: “Today, we have only one dream: to be Armenian and to live here.”
On the border between Ararat and Nakhchivan. Armenian positions are on the left and Azerbaijani positions on the right.
On the border between Ararat and Nakhchivan. Armenian positions are on the left and Azerbaijani positions on the right. | Photo: ©Théo Prouvost
The Russians are leaving
Since 1 January 2025, some of those Russian soldiers have been due to leave. Announced in May 2024 following a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Nikol Pachinyan, the Armenian prime minister, the withdrawal comes after a rise in tensions between the two historic allies.
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The Russians will remain stationed in the east and south, along the borders with Turkey and Iran. But on the Azerbaijan border, located in the provinces of Tavush, Syunik, Vayots Dzor, Gegharkunik and Ararat, they will no longer be present. This is according to a report by Hayk Konjoryan, leader of the ruling party in the Armenian parliament.
In recent years the government of Nikol Pachinyan has been critical of Russia and has begun a rapprochement with the European Union. This shift reflects discontent among many Armenians, who blame Russia forces for taking no action to oppose Azerbaijan's offensive in the Nagorno-Karabakh war.
The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, which has been going on for decades, reached a turning point in September 2023. Baku launched a lightning offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave of Azerbaijan historically peopled by Armenians. In less than 24 hours, Baku’s forces took total control of the territory. More than 100,000 inhabitants promptly fled to neighbouring Armenia.
In Yeghegnadzor, capital of the province of Vayots Dzor, the 10,000 inhabitants regularly see Russian convoys heading east. In the town stands a roadhouse belonging to two local women, Gohar and Arpin. Both in their thirties, they make no secret of their scepticism about Russia's presence, which has been ongoing for almost five years. “The Russians claim to be helping us, but in reality everything they do is dictated by their own interests”, says Gohar. A Russian-registered lorry rattles past the little shop. "The Russians have always been our enemies”, adds Arpin.
The Russian army base at Artachat has been in operation since 1992. ©Théo Prouvost
The Russian army base at Artachat has been in operation since 1992. | Photo: ©Théo Prouvost
For the moment, it is impossible to know whether the 4,500 or so border guards of the FSB, Russia's internal security services, have begun their withdrawal from the bases in Vayots Dzor and Ararat. Several hundred of them are stationed in the small town of Artachat, south of Yerevan. Near the Russian base there, the shop signs are in Cyrillic and the rouble is widely accepted. Russian army badges are on display in the windows of military-surplus stores on Isakov Street. Ihor, the owner of one of these shops, is particularly exposed to Moscow's intervention: “If the Russians leave tomorrow, I'll close my shop.”
‘We want Europe to be our ally’
Nestled in the heart of the snow-capped mountains of the Lesser Caucasus, Yeghegnadzor is also home to another foreign presence. In one of the car parks along the main avenue, a dozen identical white 4x4s give away the location of the local EU mission.
The European Union Mission to Armenia (EUMA), which arrived in February 2023, was set up after tensions with Azerbaijan flared up again. Since Azerbaijan annexed Nagorno-Karabakh, the EU delegation has been in southern Armenia to “strengthen security and build confidence in sensitive areas”. Two years on, the EU presence remains a comfort to Arpine and Gohar. It has also helped their business. “We feel safe thanks to the observers. We want Europe to be our allies”, says Arpin from behind the counter.
In the streets of Yeghegnadzor, one of the EUMA patrols returns to its headquarters.
In the streets of Yeghegnadzor, one of the EUMA patrols returns to its headquarters. | Photo: ©
Ingrid Mühling, one of the mission's 209 members, describes the situation: “Since we've been in Yeghegnadzor, we've conducted over 4,000 patrols within a radius of around 1,000 kilometres. Although the number of incidents has decreased, there are still isolated cases, such as gunshots whose origin we have not been able to determine.”
Invited by the Armenian government, EUMA works closely with the Armenian army, which sometimes accompanies EUMA’s patrols on the region's winding roads. “The EU presence is above all aimed at allaying the fears of the inhabitants”, says Ingrid Mühling. Inhabitants like Anishit, Gohar and Arpin. All are worried that Baku's territorial ambitions run right into Armenia.
A tricky geopolitical position
Yerevan's turn towards the West, at the expense of its traditional ally, is a complicated manoeuvre to execute. Taline Ter Minassian, director of the Observatory of Post-Soviet States at Inalco in Paris, stresses the delicate nature of the double game being played by Armenia's government, which came to power in 2018: “The prime minister is dancing a waltz between the EU and Russia – two parties with competing proposals for peace mediation with Azerbaijan.”
On 9 January, the Armenian government approved a bill to initiate the EU membership process. Yerevan's ambition is now clear: to become the tenth candidate country in the queue to join the EU.
Seemingly to demonstrate its intentions, Armenia joined the International Criminal Court (ICC) in February 2024. A year earlier the ICC had issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin. This symbolic decision will theoretically oblige Armenia to arrest the Russian president if he were to set foot on its territory.
The situation in neighbouring Georgia might yet persuade Prime Minister Nikol Pachinyan to lower his sights. Taline Ter Minassian explains: “Despite nine months of protests against the government, Georgia has just completed its pro-Russian turn. Armenia will not be able to join the EU, let alone NATO, if it is the only one in the Caucasus.” Three thousand kilometres from Brussels and separated from the heart of the continent by the Black Sea, Yerevan has an uphill battle if it is to anchor its future in the West.
On Thursday 13 March, Azerbaijan and Armenia announced that they were ready to sign a peace agreement. For the time being, however, the borders between the two countries remain closed and there is a heavy military presence. While the signing of a peace agreement seems closer than ever, residents remain on guard, aware of the fragility of the situation and the risk that it could flare up again at any moment.
🤝 This article is published within the Come Together collaborative project