The fears are numerous: about the future of Ukraine; about a possible Russian attack on the Baltic states and even Poland; and about a new carve-up of spheres of influence, which is what both Trump and Putin seem to have their sights on.
Russian independent portal Verstka has spoken with various Russian officials about peace negotiations and Putin's refusal to accept a 30-day truce. It appears the Americans and Ukrainians jointly approached the Russians with this proposal after the talks in Saudi Arabia. Some of the Russians who spoke to Verstka are optimistic and hopeful that the conflict can be resolved. They consider it promising in itself that Russia has established contact with the West after three years of isolation.
One of the sources, a Kremlin official involved in high-level meetings and discussions, told Verstka's journalists that there was no reason to be disappointed, since “nobody ever claimed that peace could be achieved in three days”. For this official, it was encouraging that a leader has emerged in the West who understands that Russia must be taken seriously: “We are talking to him and explaining our demands, which have not changed in three years: the disarmament of Ukraine, no NATO on Russia's doorstep. Everything is going according to plan.”
Other Russians take a more cautious attitude. In the words of one: “In my social circle, people are on an emotional rollercoaster. Just yesterday, we were preparing for meetings with Western business leaders. Today, it seems that there will be no rapprochement after all. Nobody understands anything, and the signals we are getting seem to change several times a day. This last month has been full of hope, but I don't know if it will be fulfilled..”
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Ukrainians are on an emotional rollercoaster too. Trump's peace plan increasingly resembles a demand for complete surrender to Russia and the acceptance of all Russia's demands without any security guarantees in return. Ukrainians are under no illusions. In a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in late February and early March, 87% of respondents did not think that Russian aggression would end with the currently occupied Ukrainian territories. Two thirds believed that Russia's goal is to destroy Ukraine – both the state and the nation, including through ethnic cleansing.
Unfortunately they appear to be right: no one in Russia is making much effort to hide this plan. Indeed, Russian propagandists have been discussing for some time now which groups of Ukrainians should be subjected to purges and which ones can be left alone, assuming Russia’s future full control of Ukraine. The war is not some personal caprice of President Zelensky or the people around him, as the new US administration is trying to portray it. It is, alas, an undesired necessity for Ukraine. There is no alternative: it is a war for the Ukrainian state's survival.
The Trump administration's decision to shut down Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) certainly came as a positive signal to the Kremlin. These US-funded media outlets were a source of independent news in authoritarian places such as Russia, Belarus, and Central Asia. In Russia, RFE/RL was decentralized, with separate regional newsrooms dedicated to, for example, the Caucasus, the Urals, and Siberia. In this way the media outlet has subtly helped to break down hierarchical, centralist ideas about the structure of Russia, and appealed to the interests and priorities of the inhabitants of the various parts of the country.
As the United States dismantles its tools of soft power, Russia is spending billions of dollars on building up its own outlets of propaganda and disinformation. They include social media and the traditional media. The most notable example of the latter is the lavishly funded state-run RT (formerly Russia Today), whose head, Margarita Simonyan, is a particularly bloodthirsty supporter of the war against Ukraine.
That is why the government of Czechia, where RFE/RL is based, is already trying to convince other EU countries that it is in their interest to take over the funding from the Americans in order to keep the newsroom afloat. Czech foreign minister Jan Lipavsky has called RFE/RL and Voice of America a “beacon of hope” for people living in authoritarian countries. The Czechs have circulated a draft resolution to their EU colleagues to raise the alarm. It points out that RFE/RL, which has been providing objective information to people in countries behind the Iron Curtain for decades, “continues to deliver reliable, independent news to tens of millions of people in regions where a free press is absent or restricted”. Prague believes that RFE/RL contributes to European security through its work, and that “shutting down this newsroom would be a gift to Europe's enemies”.
Many of us, especially in Europe, are wondering what Trump and his people are really up to with all this madness. Some see a well-thought-out strategy – for example, a plan to change the rules of American military and economic hegemony. Others believe that any attempt to understand Trump is a waste of time, and that we are dealing with a narcissist who is detached from reality, who can longer distinguish between truth and lies, and who therefore acts completely irrationally.
Among those analyzing the new US administration's every move isRe:Russia, a team of exiled Russian experts. In their view, the Americans may be interested in a major energy deal with Russia that would allow them to carve up the gas resources in the Arctic and thus jointly control about 40 percent of the global gas market. In this scenario, Trump would need Canada and Greenland more than the European Union and Ukraine.
In partnership with Display Europe, cofunded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the Directorate‑General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.