Iran faces escalating environmental and infrastructural crises, exposing governance deficiencies. Tehran’s seismic event vulnerability is critical, with accumulated tectonic stress indicating the high probability of a magnitude 7+ earthquake. Rapid urbanization and inadequate disaster preparedness put millions of people at risk. Simultaneously, Iran’s energy crisis worsens as demand outpaces supply. Iran’s water crisis compounds these challenges: Overextraction, reduced precipitation, and groundwater depletion have pushed the country into a hydrological emergency, leading to land subsidence. These interlinked crises underscore systemic governance failures in which short-term economic policies and weak regulatory oversight exacerbate risks to public safety, infrastructure, and economic resilience.
March 15: In the wake of a minor earthquake in Tehran March 14,Nour News, which is affiliated with the Supreme National Security Council, expressed warnings about a potential major seismic rupture in the capital.
He asked: “Are the city authorities and the people ready to face such a disaster?”
“The real question is this: When is the destructivemagnitude 7 seismic event coming? Research shows Tehran is situated on multipleactive fault segments… each of which has the potential to generatehigh-magnitude seismic activity, even exceedingmagnitude 7 on theRichter scale… The occurrence oflow-to-moderate magnitude tremors in Tehran in recent months may suggest an increase intectonic stress accumulation along these faults. For example, the90-kilometer-long Robat Karim fault is the most probable source of today’stectonic displacement… Experts note that Tehran experiencesmajor seismic ruptures approximately every 150 years. The lastlarge-magnitude earthquake in Tehran occurred 180 years ago … which implies that ahigh-impact seismic event could strike at any moment.”
“The real problem is that Tehran continues itsuncontrolled vertical urban expansion whileseismically vulnerable structures in the central and southern districts intensify the risk … More than 2.5 million people reside in these areas. In the event of amagnitude 7 earthquake, a minimum 30% of the buildings will experiencestructural failure or completecollapse. The ensuinginfrastructure disruption, including the failure oflifelines, such as water supply, electricity, natural gas, and telecommunications, will severely complicate emergency response efforts.”
“Authorities have announced that 109seismic crisis management centers are operational in the city, and newearthquake-resistant medical facilities are under construction, but the question remains: Is this sufficient? Many experts argue that themitigation measures implemented aregrossly inadequate relative to theseismic hazard level Tehran faces.”
“The recentseismic events in Tehran, particularly yesterday’squake, were not merelytransient geophysical phenomena but ratherforewarning signals of an impendingseismic catastrophe in Tehran.”
March 13: ReformistEntekhab‘s YouTube channel featured a conversation with Hashem Oraee from Sharif Institute of Technology on Iran’s supply-demand crisis:
Answering a question about his expectations for theenergy imbalance outlook for the next six months, Oraee said: “Well, unfortunately, sincedemand growth is outpacing supply expansion, the only reasonable expectation we can have is that the circumstances will become more challenging. We are facing anincreasingsupply-demand gap… In the electricity sector,load demand is growing by 6% annually on average. In the natural gas and gasoline sectors, consumption is rising by 8% to 10% annually on average … Meanwhile, in the electricity sector,generation capacity has only expanded by 2% annually. The same applies tonatural gas extraction and gasoline production. We cannot achieve an 8% to 10% annual increase inenergy output… The result: aworsening supply deficit.”
“This said, the real problem is not on thegeneration and supply side. The core issue lies indemand mismanagement… Wrongly, we focus on the supply side … We are the fourth-largestglobal consumer of natural gas and oil … but we are not the fourth-largest economy in the world … The solution?Consumer behavior is shaped by government policy…Energy pricing in this country is not market driven… A$3 monthly electricity billisless than the cost of a pizza! This effectively means we aresubsidizing electricity to the point of giving it away for free. Why should consumersoptimize their energy usage? The government isartificially suppressing energy prices, which has led tochronic financial deficits and insolvency in the electricity sector.”
“Look at what we are doing: We don’t want to cuthousehold natural gas supply, ensuring residential heating in the winter months. However, withinsufficient gas, we divert theindustrial gas quota to the residential sector. This results inreduced industrial output, rising production costs, and inflationary pressures… People will be warm but will die of starvation!”
The interviewer asked: “For all practical purposes, we shut down thepublic sector for 50 days in the current calendar year due toenergy shortages. In your opinion, how many shutdown days are we going to see next year?” Oraee responded: “If the current trend persists, thepublic sector will face a complete shutdown throughout next winter… We have reached a point where our only fallback is tohope for favorable weather conditions to prevent asevere energy crisis!”
March 15: ReformistEtemad‘s Nayereh Khademi wrote an article under the headline “The Year of the Drought”:
March 21, 2025-26, “will be the year of the water and energy crisis. Although we have faced electricity, natural gas, and water shortages in some cities, including Tehran, in the past couple of years, it appears all previous crises were mere jokes in comparison with the crises ahead of us. The authorities warn four dams are no longer a part of the network” due to water scarcity, “precipitation has significantly decreased in comparison with previous years, and evaporation rates have risen. These factors, along with the overextraction of groundwater – previously a crucial buffer during droughts – have severely depleted Iran’s water reserves, one effect of which is land subsidence.”