In mid-March, Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez confidently asserted to his European allies that Russia will not “bring its troops across the Pyrenees.” This sentiment echoes a European belief (held outside of Poland, Romania, the Baltic states and the Nordic countries) that Russia does not pose a direct military threat to their countries and societies. As one senior German official reportedly quipped, “How can they threaten Berlin if they couldn’t take Kyiv?”[1]
However, western Europe’s focus on conventional military risk misses a far more insidious danger. The threat to countries like Spain or Portugal might not be direct, but even a relatively small scale military imbroglio with Russia in eastern Europe could unravel the institutional fabric of the EU. And it is this political stability which has kept the continent prosperous, secure and integrated for decades.
A political gambit
Consider the scenario: having rebuilt its armed forces by 2030 or 2035, Russia controls large parts of eastern or southern Ukraine, including the country’s resources such as personnel, grain stores, nuclear power plants and military production capacities. Russia, sensing division and hesitation within the EU, decides to test its resolve with limited military incursion against EU territory.
By that time, Donald Trump’s successor as US president has further weakened NATO’s Article 5 through constant undermining and signalling of its meaninglessness. The EU can use its mutual defence clause, Article 42.7, which obligates member states to provide aid and assistance to any EU country under armed attack. However, Europeans have never truly tested its effectiveness; its practical application is almost fully dependent on NATO infrastructure and planning.
This development might seem unlikely now but, four years ago, few people expected Europe to witness the biggest conflict on European soil since the second world war. Nor did they expect Trump to win a second term which has so far been defined by a total derision for European and NATO defence initiatives. Indeed, who could have imagined the US making territorial claims against NATO allies, over Greenland or directed at Canada?
Russia’s hypothetical launch of any provocation against Europe renders the EU response critical. Any slight hesitation or failure to react with complete unanimity to defend every inch of EU territory would have catastrophic consequences far beyond the immediate military situation
As such, Russia’s hypothetical launch of any provocation against Europe renders the EU response critical. Any slight hesitation or failure to react with complete unanimity to defend every inch of EU territory would have catastrophic consequences far beyond the immediate military situation. The political fallout could lead to the unravelling of the entire European project.
The domino effect
Now imagine an EU country, engaged in a military conflict with Russia, which faces an ambivalent or divided response from its fellow member states. The slightest hesitation about collective mutual defence would shake the very foundations of EU cooperation and solidarity to the core. But on a practical level, how could such a nation be expected to continue participating in discussions about farm subsidies, multiannual financial frameworks or Erasmus budgets? Would relations between Turkey and Greece or Cyprus remain as stable as they are now? And if that country is in the eurozone, what would become of Schengen or the mutual currency?
This scenario presents a danger to all EU members, but especially countries such as Ireland, Portugal or Spain. These might be geographically removed from direct Russian military threats but could nonetheless succumb, should the EU present a divided front. The destruction of the EU as a political entity would leave the continent’s small and medium-sized countries at the mercy of global powers, fundamentally altering the geopolitical landscape of Europe.
From this to a situation where Europe becomes a patchwork of small and medium-sized states, seeking to align and bend vis-à-vis China, Russia, Turkey or a hostile US, is no stretch. And it would be set against the background of a crumbling single market, Schengen zone, EU structural integrity or agricultural subsidies—and basic solidarity.
The unthinkable is not impossible
The likelihood of such a scenario varies depending on perspective and knowledge of eastern European affairs; but, in recent years, many unthinkable things have become reality. In the past, Europeans considered too many dramatic events improbable, such as Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and, in 2022, its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Any serious planning for the future—including the need for dissuasive military capabilities not just in Finland but as far afield as Spain—needs to temper any temptation to politically destroy the EU’s edifice in the equal interest of all member states.
The threat Russia poses to the EU is not primarily about tanks crossing borders or missiles striking cities as far as the Iberian or Apennine peninsula. It is rooted in the potential that even limited military confrontation scenarios in northern or central Europe would have a direct effect on every corner of Europe—as far north as Iceland or far south as Portugal. Every EU member state, from the Baltic coast to the Mediterranean shores, has a stake in preventing this outcome.
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As Europeans navigate these uncertain times, their leaders have a duty to look beyond immediate calculations and recognise that even small military actions against EU member states can impact everyone in Europe. To avoid this, Europeans need to secure enough military deterrence capabilities to dissuade any challenger from considering even testing its defences.
[1] According to the author’s own sources.
The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. ECFR publications only represent the views of their individual authors.