On March 21, 2025, President Donald Trump announced that Boeing had clinched a contract to develop the F-47, a sixth-generation fighter jet for the U.S. Air Force under the Next Generation Air Dominance program, marking a pivotal moment for the embattled aerospace giant.
F-47 hands Boeing a rope to climb out of its deep crisis pit
Photo credit: X
Speaking from the White House alongside Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Trump hailed the jet as a technological marvel secretly tested for five years, poised to secure American air superiority by 2030.
Yet, while the F-47’s stealth and power dominated the spotlight, the real story lies in Boeing’s desperate bid for redemption after a decade of financial turmoil, industrial missteps, and a shrinking foothold in the Pentagon’s favor.
Dominate the Skies
Get your first look at what will be the most advanced, lethal, & adaptable fighter ever developed… the U.S. Air Force's F-47. pic.twitter.com/ca1CeBABb5
— U.S. Air Force (@usairforce) March 21, 2025
This contract, potentially worth tens of billions, isn’t just about building a jet—it’s about saving a company teetering on the edge, reshaping its future, and reasserting its relevance in a defense landscape long dominated by rival Lockheed Martin.
Boeing’s path to this moment has been anything but smooth. The company, once a titan of American aviation with a legacy stretching from the B-17 Flying Fortress to the Apollo program, has stumbled repeatedly in recent years.
The 737 MAX crashes in 2018 and 2019, which claimed 346 lives in Indonesia and Ethiopia, plunged Boeing into a crisis of confidence.
Trump says that “certain” U.S. allies will be able to buy a “toned-down” version of the new F-47 fighter jets:
“Because someday they’re not our ally.” pic.twitter.com/Xi8GqV6MEW
— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) March 21, 2025
The Federal Aviation Administration grounded the plane for 20 months, costing the firm an estimated $20 billion in fines, compensation, and lost revenue, according to a 2021 report from the Congressional Research Service.
On the military side, the KC-46 Pegasus tanker program hemorrhaged over $7 billion in overruns, delivering aircraft plagued by faulty refueling systems and delayed fixes that frustrated Air Force planners.
A $4.9 billion deal to modernize Air Force One, signed in 2018, added another $2 billion in losses by 2024, a self-inflicted wound from a fixed-price contract Boeing couldn’t escape. These setbacks shrank its defense portfolio, leaving analysts to question whether the company could still compete at the highest levels.
The F-47 contract offers a lifeline. Valued at an initial $20 billion with potential for far more as production ramps up, it promises to breathe life into Boeing’s military division, particularly its St. Louis, Missouri, facility.
That plant, a hub for fighter jet production since the F-15 Eagle and F/A-18 Super Hornet, faced an uncertain future as Super Hornet orders dwindled and no new major programs materialized.
The announcement triggered a 5% surge in Boeing’s stock after hours, a flicker of optimism for a company whose market value had dropped from $240 billion in 2019 to under $130 billion by late 2024, per data from Bloomberg.
Industry observers see the deal as a chance to stabilize a workforce of 140,000, including 30,000 tied to defense projects, and to shore up a supply chain battered by years of lean times.
A Boeing spokesperson, speaking anonymously due to the contract’s sensitivity, called it “a turning point for our company and our people,” though they offered no further details.
Lockheed Martin’s shadow looms large over Boeing’s win. The Maryland-based firm has long been the Pentagon’s go-to for advanced fighters, delivering the F-22 Raptor in 2005 and rolling out over 1,000 F-35 Lightning II jets since 2011.
The F-35, despite its $1.7 trillion lifetime cost and early struggles with software and maintenance, solidified Lockheed’s dominance, securing contracts with 17 nations and keeping its Fort Worth, Texas, factory humming. Boeing, by contrast, watched its fighter jet legacy fade after the F/A-18’s peak, losing ground in competitions like the Navy’s next-generation carrier jet. The NGAD award flips that script.
Trump’s claim that the F-47 is “the most advanced fighter ever built” suggests Boeing leapfrogged Lockheed, a notion reinforced by Air Force Chief of Staff General David Allvin’s remark that the jet “redefines air dominance.” Lockheed’s stock fell 6% in response, hinting at investor unease over its future in the manned fighter market.
The stakes for Boeing extend beyond pride. The company’s defense, space, and security division, which generated $25 billion in 2023 revenue per its annual report, has been a lifeline amid commercial aviation woes. But that figure pales next to Lockheed’s $67 billion in defense sales the same year, a gap widened by Boeing’s misfires.
The F-47, with its $300 million unit cost and plans for at least 200 jets, could pump $60 billion into Boeing’s coffers over the next two decades, assuming no major setbacks.
That infusion would bolster a balance sheet strained by $52 billion in debt as of mid-2024, according to SEC filings, and fund investments in next-gen tech like autonomous systems and hypersonics—areas where Boeing has lagged.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley, in a note to clients after the announcement, predicted the deal could “reset Boeing’s trajectory,” though they cautioned execution remains key.
Execution, however, has been Boeing’s Achilles’ heel. The KC-46’s troubles stretched from 2016 to 2023, with the Air Force accepting jets it couldn’t fully use until fixes arrived years late.
A 2021 Government Accountability Office report pinned the 737 MAX failures on a “culture of cost-cutting” and inadequate oversight, flaws that reverberated through its defense work.
The F-47’s complexity—stealth beyond the F-22, integration with Collaborative Combat Aircraft drones, and a timeline aiming for 2030—demands precision Boeing hasn’t consistently shown. General Allvin, speaking at the White House, said the jet’s five-year test history gives “confidence in its maturity,” but details remain classified.
Defense analyst Loren Thompson, writing for Forbes, noted that “Boeing’s ability to deliver on NGAD will define its survival as a top-tier contractor,” a sentiment echoed by industry insiders who see this as a make-or-break moment.
The Pentagon’s bet on Boeing carries its own risks. The Air Force has sunk $1.5 billion into NGAD research through 2024, with a $2.7 billion request for fiscal 2025 signaling a $19.6 billion commitment over five years, per budget documents.
That’s a fraction of the F-35’s trillion-dollar saga, but the F-47’s $300 million price tag—double the F-22’s—invites scrutiny. Representative Adam Smith, a Washington Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, told Defense News last month that “every new fighter program risks becoming a money pit unless tightly managed.”
The F-22, capped at 187 jets due to cost, and the F-35, dogged by delays, offer cautionary tales. Boeing’s fixed-price losses on Air Force One suggest it might underbid to win NGAD, only to bleed later—a pattern the Pentagon can ill afford as it balances NGAD with the $130 billion B-21 Raider bomber.
Boeing’s workforce feels the weight of this chance. St. Louis, where 15,000 jobs tie directly to defense, stands to gain the most. The Super Hornet line, set to wind down by 2027 without new orders, left workers bracing for layoffs.
The F-47 could extend that lifeline, drawing on expertise from the F-15EX, a modernized Eagle variant delivered in 2021. Local union leaders, like Jeff Forbes of IAM District 837, told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that “this is the shot in the arm our people need,” though he added that “Boeing’s got to prove it can build it right.”
The company’s supplier network, spanning 40 states, could see a ripple effect, with firms like Spirit AeroSystems in Kansas—already reeling from 737 MAX cuts—potentially revived by F-47 parts orders.
Lockheed’s response will shape the fallout. The company isn’t out of the game—its F-35 backlog stretches to 2030, and Skunk Works, the secretive division behind the F-117 Nighthawk, likely has classified projects in play. But losing NGAD raises questions about its manned fighter future as the F-22 nears retirement by the mid-2030s.
Some speculate Lockheed could pivot to the Navy’s needs or double down on drones, where its X-44A concept has stirred interest. A Lockheed spokesperson, declining to be named, told Reuters the firm “remains committed to advancing air combat capabilities,” but offered no specifics on NGAD’s aftermath. Analysts at Jane’s Defence Weekly suggest Lockheed might challenge Boeing indirectly, pushing rival tech to keep Pentagon dollars flowing its way.
The F-47’s strategic backdrop—countering China’s J-20 and Russia’s Su-57—adds urgency to Boeing’s task. The Pentagon’s 2022 China Military Power Report warns of Beijing’s 1,000-fighter goal by 2035, while Russia’s S-400 systems threaten older jets.
The F-47’s drone integration, promising a networked edge, could tip that balance if delivered on time. But Boeing’s history looms. The T-7A Red Hawk trainer, completed ahead of schedule in 2023, offers hope, yet its $9 billion scope pales next to NGAD’s ambition.
Defense Secretary Hegseth, a Trump appointee, framed the jet as “a signal to our adversaries,” but its success hinges on a company that’s faltered under less pressure.
Congress holds the purse strings, and NGAD’s fate isn’t sealed. The F-35’s cost overruns still sting—Senator Bernie Sanders called it “a boondoggle” in a 2023 speech—and NGAD’s $60 billion-plus projection could draw similar fire. Trump’s clout might sway some, tying the F-47 to his legacy, but fiscal hawks and progressives could unite against it if Boeing stumbles.
The Air Force plans to phase out the F-22 by 2035, leaving little margin for error. For Boeing, the F-47 isn’t just a jet—it’s a referendum on its relevance, a test of whether it can reclaim its perch atop American aerospace or fade into Lockheed’s shadow.
The White House announcement was step one; the real story unfolds in the years ahead, on factory floors and in skies yet to be contested.
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