Mohamed Dagalo — the Sudanese rebel leader also known as ‘Hemedti’ — recently appeared in a video urging his soldiers not to surrender the presidential palace in Khartoum. Now, Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) leader Abdel Fatah al-Burhan stands victorious at its gates.
The recapture of the palace by the SAF could signal a turning point for Sudan’s civil war as it nears its third year. The brutal conflict has fueled ethnic cleansing, famine, displacement, mass rape, and massacres, culminating in the U.S. Department of State’s genocide determination on January 7.
Meanwhile, the war threatens to spill beyond Sudan’s border, with both the SAF and Hemedti’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) signaling support for opposing factions in neighboring South Sudan.
RSF Suffers Territorial Losses
RSF is on its back foot after a series of battlefield defeats in recent weeks. While the SAF has overtaken its strongholds in the capital, the RSF and allied fighters have escalated attacks on civilians in eastern Khartoum, with reports of sexual violence and summary executions.
Despite these setbacks, Hemedti remains undeterred. Earlier this month, the U.S.-sanctioned militia leader announced the creation of a parallel government in Kenya. The charter, signed by RSF members and allied militia and political leaders, is Hemedti’s latest attempt to cement control over captured territories.
External Influence Fueling the War
Foreign actors have seized the ongoing war as an opportunity to expand their influence in Sudan, backing both factions to secure strategic military and economic gains. Sudan’s mineral-rich landscape and 530-mile Red Sea coast make it a desirable geopolitical prize.
Since December 2023, following the resumption of diplomatic ties between Iran and Sudan, Tehran has supplied drones and munitions to the SAF. Iranian-made weapons have bolstered the SAF’s arsenal, aiding its efforts to reclaim territory from the RSF. In return, Iran is seeking a naval base in Port Sudan. Meanwhile, Russian fuel, weapons, and jet components have made their way into SAF hands. “Sudan has support from Iran and Russia,” said a senior member of Sudan’s Beja tribe, whose militia is aligned with government forces. In February, meanwhile, Sudan’s foreign minister announced that a final deal granting Russia a naval base in Port Sudan had been reached.
Washington Should Prioritize Containing Russia and Iran
While recent developments may signal that the war is shifting in the SAF’s favor, Sudan will remain a battleground for foreign influence, with both Moscow and Tehran exploiting the chaos to cement their footholds in the Horn of Africa.
The entrenchment of Russia and Iran in Sudan poses direct threats to U.S. and allied interests. To this end, Washington should leverage diplomatic and economic tools to disincentivize the SAF from deepening ties with Moscow and Tehran. First, Washington should align the interests of Egypt, Sudan’s neighbor to the north, and the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, which lie across the Red Sea. Despite dissent regarding their desired outcomes of the war, all three share a common concern: preventing the resurgence of an anti-Western, Islamist regime in Sudan. Second, Washington should ramp up efforts to disrupt Iranian and Russian financial networks by imposing sanctions on Sudanese officials and companies involved in facilitating deals with Moscow and Tehran. Finally, Washington should urge Egypt to restrict Russian and Iranian vessels from transiting the Suez Canal as a means of squeezing Moscow and Tehran’s presence from the region.
Mariam Wahba is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Rebecca Goldsmith is an intern. For more analysis from Mariam and FDD, please subscribeHERE. Follow Mariam on X@themariamwahba. Follow FDD on X@FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.
Issues:
Iran Iran-backed Terrorism Military and Political Power Russia U.S. Defense Policy and Strategy