Latest Developments
Defense Minister Warns Hamas: Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on March 21 that the IDF would “seize additional areas of Gaza” if Hamas continues to hold Israeli hostages. “The more Hamas persists in its refusal to release the hostages, the more territory it will lose,” Katz added. His remarks came on the fourth day of “Operation Strength and Sword,” Israel’s latest ground operation in Gaza.
Egypt Denies Reports It Would Take Gazan Refugees: Egypt denied reports on March 21 that it would temporarily take in half a million Gazans from the war-torn Palestinian enclave. “Egypt’s position is firm in its absolute and final rejection of any attempt to displace Palestinians,” the country’s State Information Service said. Egypt and other Arab states had proposed their own plan for Gaza’s reconstruction on March 4 as an alternative to Trump’s February 4 plan, which called for Gazans to be afforded the opportunity to leave the enclave voluntarily while it was being rebuilt.
Half of Gazans Want Out: The publicized Arab plan did not include a solution for temporarily housing Gazan civilians during the reconstruction period. According to a recent Gallup poll, more than half of Gaza’s population would leave if given the opportunity. The report revealed that 52 percent of Palestinians in Gaza expressed interest in emigrating, either temporarily or permanently, to destinations such as Germany, Egypt, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.
FDD Expert Response
“As with many of his out-of-the-box ideas, President Trump’s proposal for the voluntary relocation of Gazans has had a real impact, even if its full implementation remains uncertain. The Palestinians it was intended to help are clearly thinking about it, with more than one in 10 hoping to go to neighboring Egypt. That Cairo remains so bloody-minded about the basic welfare of its fellow Arabs — despite its heavy reliance on U.S. aid and security guarantees — is nothing short of astonishing.” — Mark Dubowitz, CEO
“Hamas must face consequences for launching a war of aggression against Israel. The terrorist group clearly does not care about loss of Palestinian life given that it is a jihadist organization that routinely kills the people it is supposed to govern. Territorial loss would be a tangible confirmation that Hamas’s genocidal approach is self-defeating.” —David May, Research Manager and Senior Research Analyst
“The overall objectives for both sides have remained largely unchanged since the war began on October 7. Hamas and its Palestinian allies seek to stay in power after the conflict, and it’s doubtful they would release all the hostages without a guarantee that they will remain in power at the end of the war. Conversely, Israel and the United States are focused on securing the release of all the captives and dismantling Hamas’s rule. Neither side has shown much willingness to compromise on these core issues. Thus, Israel is shifting tactics, testing whether Hamas is willing to lose territory for the sake of keeping the hostages and staying in power.” —Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst and Editor at FDD’s Long War Journal
“Cairo has been adamant in rejecting any Gazan relocation plan, labeling it a red line. As such, Egypt has made this position a cornerstone of its post-war plan. Meanwhile, the White House is advancing its ‘Riviera’ plan, exploring alternative destinations for Gazans seeking refuge from the war. These positions are at odds with each other, and while they may not be clashing now, they are inevitably heading toward a confrontation. Undoubtedly, this will have a significant impact on the Washington-Cairo relationship.” —Mariam Wahba, Research Analyst
FDD Background and Analysis
“IDF Partially Retakes Netzarim Corridor, Hamas and Houthis Target Israel,” FDD Flash Brief
“Israel Announces New Ground Operations in Gaza,” FDD Flash Brief
“Can Hamas ever be defeated?” by Seth J. Frantzman
“‘Psychological Warfare’: Hamas Rejects U.S. Proposal, Israeli Delegation Called Back From Doha,” FDD Flash Brief
Issues:
Egypt Israel Israel at War Palestinian Politics