Soldiers look at a column of smoke in Odessa, on the Black Sea in Ukraine, in June 2024. (Nikoletta Stoyanova/Getty Images)
Negotiators from Russia and Ukraine will both be in Saudi Arabia for ceasefire talks on Monday, but they won’t be meeting face-to-face — illustrating the gulf that separates the warring sides despite White House assurances that they have “never been closer” to peace.
The U.S.-mediated talks will focus on a proposed maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, according to Yuri Ushakov, a top foreign policy aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Negotiators will be in separate rooms, relying on intermediaries to carry messages back and forth.
“They are going to be proximity discussions … sort of like shuttle diplomacy in a hotel,” President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, said in an interview with ABC News.
While Ukraine has said it supports a comprehensive ceasefire without preconditions, Putin so far has agreed only to a more narrow proposal calling for both sides to halt attacks on energy infrastructure.
The selective concession appears to favor Russia, which repeatedly targeted Ukraine’s power grid over the winter months but was expected to shift away from the strategy with the approach of spring. Ukraine has used long-range drones to hit Russian oil storage facilities and cut into the country’s domestic fuel supply.
In a social media post announcing Putin had agreed to the energy ceasefire, Trump said there was an “understanding that we will be working quickly to have a Complete Ceasefire.” But there is no indication Moscow has budged on its maximalist goals — including an end to Western aid to, and intelligence sharing with, Kyiv and Ukraine’s renunciation of its NATO ambitions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday that Putin “must stop making unnecessary demands that only prolong the war.”
How a broader potential ceasefire would be enforced also remains unclear, with Russia refusing any role for a NATO-backed peacekeeping force.
“This is a time in a ceasefire where things are the most sensitive and prone to derailment,” said Samuel Charap, a Russia analyst with the Rand think tank. “We should expect zigzags,” he added, a “one step forward, two steps back kind of situation.”
On Friday, both sides accused each other of undermining the partial ceasefire. Moscow said Kyiv blew up a gas station in Sudzha, a town in western Russia seized by Ukraine in a surprise incursion last year.
“Everyone can see how much we can trust the word of Zelensky,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
A few hours earlier, Russian drones attacked the Ukrainian port city of Odessa, damaging a high-rise apartment building and a shopping mall and igniting several large fires. “Russia is again attacking civilian infrastructure,” Ukrainian presidential aide Andriy Yermak posted on Telegram.
On Wednesday, Zelensky said his office was preparing a list of civilian infrastructure that should be spared from future strikes, including railways and port installations. Andrey Stavnitser, co-owner and CEO of Ukraine’s biggest port, TIS, said he remained “skeptical” about agreements with Russia.
“What we saw last time was sabotage, deliberate attempts to push Ukraine out of global markets, and intentional delays,” he said of talks held in Istanbul earlier in the war. “To ensure compliance, international observers — ideally Americans — must be present on the ground.”
Moscow’s push for a naval truce in the Black Sea makes sense, said Russian political scientist Kirill Rogov, because Ukraine has paralyzed much of the Russian fleet there and “controls most of the waters with the help of naval drones.”
“Putin has no advantage here, so it is convenient for him to agree to a partial ceasefire in this area,” Rogov added.
Moscow has also indicated that the talks in Saudi Arabia will cover grain shipments in the Black Sea. Under a deal brokered in the summer of 2022, Ukraine was allowed to export its grain from ports blockaded by Russia. But the deal was plagued by disruptions from the start, with Russia accusing Ukraine of using the safe corridor to launch drone attacks, and it was suspended a year later.
Since then, Ukraine has sought alternative export routes, including land corridors through Europe and shipments via the Danube River, but these options are far costlier.
The Russian delegation in Riyadh will be led by Grigory Karasin, a senator overseeing foreign affairs, and Sergey Beseda, a high-ranking adviser to the director of the Federal Security Service.
Ukraine will be represented by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Pavlo Palisa, deputy head of the presidential office, according to a senior Ukrainian official familiar with the talks, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. Zelensky has said the delegation will also include energy experts and “people who have a deep understanding of port infrastructure.”
Among the American mediators will be Michael Anton, the policy planning director under Secretary of State Marco Rubio, along with aides to Kellogg and representatives from the office of national security adviser Michael Waltz.
As the United States tries to persuade Putin to wind down the war, questions persist over how much leverage Washington has over the Russian leader — and how willing Trump is to use it.
Western sanctions imposed after the Russian invasion have failed to stop Moscow’s war machine. While some measures by the outgoing Biden administration, like hitting the country’s shadow oil tanker fleet, have been more biting, the U.S. has been cautious about further restricting Russian energy flows, fearing disruptions to global markets.
The success of the existing sanctions depends in large part on enforcing secondary penalties against nations that aid Russia’s evasion efforts or buy its oil. But U.S. officials have already said publicly that sanctions relief and a restoration of some U.S.-Russia ties could be part of a broader peace agreement.
Rogov, the Russian political scientist, said these statements signal to Moscow’s trading partners that they are unlikely to be punished for doing business as usual. And when it comes to Putin, “Trump effectively deprives himself of leverage over him,” he said.
Russia’s central demand is an end to U.S. intelligence sharing with Kyiv, which has played a vital role in Ukrainian defenses — and which Washington suspended after Zelensky clashed with Trump and Vice President JD Vance in a tense Oval Office meeting last month.
The U.S. resumed intelligence sharing with Kyiv last week after Zelensky agreed to a full ceasefire — a prospect later rejected by Putin.
Europe, which has vowed continued support for Ukraine amid its declining relations with the White House, has struggled to secure a seat at the negotiating table — another win for Putin, who has insisted that Moscow and Washington be the sole arbiters of any final deal.
The European Commission has proposed a plan for the European Union to spend some $870 million over the next four years to bolster its defenses and reduce its dependence on Washington, but analysts say follow-through will be key.
Europe’s “position right now is really crucial,” said Maria Snegovaya, a Russia specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “This means coming up with a list of practical suggestions for Ukraine,” as well as “money to purchase weapons from the U.S.”
Natalia Abbakumova and Serhiy Morgunov contributed to this report.