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World Water Day: Next big conflict looms as developed nations buy ‘scarcest critical resource’

Since 1993, World Water Day on March 22 has spotlighted the urgent need for equitable access to freshwater, as 2.2 billion people still lack safe drinking water.

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Shutterstock

Amid a worsening global water crisis, what we miss out on is the fact that countries like the US, Germany, and the UK are now buying water, and the third world war could take place because of water.

Studies predict that water scarcity will impact 40 per cent of the world's population, and by 2030, up to 700 million people may be displaced due to droughts.

Here are some appalling facts about water.

In 2023, water was the world's 550th most traded product, with a total trade value of $4.84 billion — a 7.06 per cent increase from 2022.

As per the Observatory of Economic Complexity report of 2023, the United States emerged as the largest importer, spending $1.06 billion on water, followed by Hong Kong ($638 million), Germany ($265 million), the United Kingdom ($251 million), and Belgium ($242 million).

Journalist Steven Solomon’s book, Water: The epic struggle for wealth, power and civilization, 2009 said that many conflicts in the modern world will be fought over water as it surpasses oil as the “world's scarcest critical resource”.

Ice is seen on the Pastoruri glacier in the Peruvian Andes, Peru, May 7, 2024. (Reuters)

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He wrote that the earth’s fresh water supply is 2.5 per cent, most of which is in ice form in glaciers. World water use has doubled in the last century, and divided countries into water haves and water have-nots.

"We've now reached the limit where that trajectory can no longer continue…[because] there's simply not enough,” he said.

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Pope Francis (Reuters)

Pope Francis, in 2017, raised a question: “Are we not going toward a great world war for water?”

The water wars theory is backed by a 2018 study by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC), which states that the effects of climate change and the rising scarcity of resources can lead to “regional instability and social unrest”.

The paper zeroed in on hotspots where hydro-political issues are likely to flare up. People in most of these are regions, which are short of fresh water, live with a "transboundary”, meaning a shared water source, be it a lake, river, or basin.

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An almost dry bed of River Ganga near Sangam on World Water Day, in Prayagraj, Saturday, March 22, 2025. (PTI)

The five most vulnerable hotspots include the Nile, Ganges-Brahmaputra, Indus, Tigris-Euphrates, and Colorado rivers.

The Nile water dispute, involving Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia, concerns about water allocation and impact on downstream water supplies.

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Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Wikipedia)

Ethiopia's construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile, a major tributary of the Nile, has been the catalyst for the current tensions.

Egypt and Sudan, downstream countries, rely on the Nile for agriculture and water resources, and they cite historical treaties (from 1929 and 1959) that give them preferential rights to the river's water. Ethiopia argues that these colonial treaties are outdated and should not bind them, as they are an upstream country.

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People walk on the dry patch of the Indus River, in Jamshoro, Pakistan March 15, 2025. (Reuters)

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), established in 1960, has long governed the distribution of the Indus river system's waters between India and Pakistan.

In August 2024, India issued a formal notice to Pakistan seeking a review and modification of the treaty, citing Islamabad's intransigence in handling disputes related to cross-border rivers.

Pakistan also has objections over India's construction of the Kishanganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects in Jammu and Kashmir.

In 2015, Pakistan sought a neutral expert's intervention but later shifted its stance, requesting a Court of Arbitration in 2016. The World Bank's simultaneous activation of both mechanisms has led to procedural complexities, with India attending meetings convened by the neutral expert but abstaining from the Court of Arbitration proceedings.

As of March 2025, the future of the IWT remains uncertain, with both nations navigating these disputes amidst broader geopolitical tensions.

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Poignant view of a sunset captured from near Sukleswar ghat in Guwahati. The photograph has a wide range of saturated colours and shows two small fishing boats and framed by the hills on both sides of the Saraighat Bridge across the river Brahmaputra. (Wikipedia)

In the Brahmaputra, China's recent approval of a $137 billion hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet has heightened tensions with India.

The proposed dam, poised to be among the world's largest, is situated near the "Great Bend," where the river descends before entering India as the Brahmaputra.

India has lodged a formal protest, emphasising the need for transparency and consultation to safeguard downstream interests. India plans to construct a large dam on the Siang River to mitigate potential risks, though this initiative faces domestic opposition.

The absence of a water-sharing agreement between China and India exacerbates fears of potential "water wars" and increased dependency on China for water resources.

In the developed west too, water has been a major issue.

The California Water Wars, early 20th-century conflicts between Los Angeles and rural Owens Valley farmers over water rights, has led to economic and environmental devastation for local communities.

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Firefighters battle the Hughes Fire near Castaic Lake, north of Santa Clarita, California, U.S. January 22, 2025. (Reuters)

According to experts, firefighters’ ability to battle the fires that ravaged Los Angeles in January 2025 was hampered by low hydrant water pressure.

India, home to over 1.4 billion people, also faces an escalating water crisis, particularly in cities like Bangalore, Mumbai, and Delhi.

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Residents collect free water from a tanker amid water crisis, in Bengaluru. (PTI)

According to a report in Times of India, many households were spending anywhere between Rs 10,000 and Rs 25,000 every month to buy water from private tankers because of the scarcity.

Rapid urbanisation, climate change, and poor water management have worsened shortages.

Rajendra Singh, known as the waterman of India, warned in 2017 that government and corporate actions were destroying India’s water resources.

“At the time of Independence, India had 1.5 million water bodies; today, over 1.2 million have either been encroached upon or polluted,” he said.

With 72 per cent of India's aquifers drying up, experts fear a dire future. Singh even went so far as to say that water could be the trigger for World War III.

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